Belmont: Closer Looks for June 20, 2014

Race 1

Bay of Biscay

Primed for this around 2 turns at MTH while back to BEL where in his debut was screaming out for more distance and will get it here; the show finisher from his unveiling posted an 85 Beyer speed figure in a next-out BEL-MSW win; 1st-time Johnny V winning just 18% for the barn at BEL since 2013; projects to save ground staking the speed; the one to beat.

Successful Runner

Just missed when favored in a 1-turn Mile not giving the impression that 9F would be within his scope; a major pace factor here who worked great at GP but local workouts suggest we take a wait and see approach; he has not raced back to his field-best Beyer speed figure posted in his January career debut at 6.5F.

Secret Fortune

Has not raced past 6F yet; is by an 0-for-2 dirt-route sire; dam was unraced producing 1-for-5 router Sweetjudyblue (30K); the debut winner repeated in a BEL allowance with a 94 Beyer speed figure; the 11%-sprint-to-route trainer does not help the confidence level that he will stretch out with success.

Lunar Rover

10%-winning fresh trainer noting his light-debut Beyer in his only dirt start; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 76 speed figure in a next-out WO-MSW win; the way he rallied in last the added distance is a plus but others appeal more.

Aslan

1st Lasix today is an 11%-win angle for the trainer; even finishes in 3 races but with an improving-Beyer pattern; reunites with the 2-back exacta rider; needs to find the missing passing gear to make any impact here

Kato

The turf debut did not work out in last but would be a tough customer if repeats the 2-back Beyer at 1 Mile when closing well nearly overcoming a troubled-gate break; the runner-up from his last dirt start Beyered 97 in a next-out BEL-MSW win; reunites with the rider from his best success; the pick.

Classic Sense

Snuck through the claim box in last when favored and unable to get to the winner; the added distance is a plus but gets the class tested with MSW runners again; rider of last lands on Secret Fortune; reunites with a 33%-winning jockey-trainer combo; contender. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Jamaalaree

Homebred debuts for Ward who the past five years has a 22 percent strike rate with first-time starting 2-year-olds; progeny of Congaree have won their 2-year-old debuts at a 10 percent clip; dam didn't win in 3 starts; lone sib is a full-sister who has a single win going long; lone filly in the race appears to be up against it leaving from the rail; prefer others.

Chocolate Wildcat

Nice win in his debut but not sure how tough the field was as none of the ones that have come back to run did much in their second start; nonetheless, he did it easily and being a half-brother to $180K Christiesborntorun who won 4 races and was stakes placed at 2 & 3 he should have plenty of upside potential, contender.

Bessie's Boy

Second from Ward was last out of the gate, went four wide around the turn and still got up to win his debut; the horse that finished third won his next start at Pimlico with an 83 Beyer Speed Figure and then overcame trouble to win the $75K Rollicking Stakes; lone sib to race is a 4-time winner with $136K in earnings; Johnny V attracted; the pick.

King Rontos

Unbridled's Song is 13 percent with first-time starting 2-year-olds; dam won a single race and earned $29K; top money earner among his 6 sibs to race is turf winner Distant Strike who went 2/16 and banked $53K; since 2010 Rodriguez has an 18 percent strike rate with first-time starting juveniles; $150K yearling hasn't really shown much in the morning; prefer others.

Shrewd Move

He couldn't beat his stablemate in back-to-back races at Turf Paradise but he looked good waxing an overmatched group of first-time starters in his romp at Prairie Meadows; he does own the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field but how many horses that couldn't win in Phoenix win stakes races in New York? he's obviously improved since he left the desert,though, and he had a nice work over the training track here; first foal out of a mare that won 8 races and earned $69K could be part of the exotics. - Randy Goulding

Race 4

Untiltherewasyou

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and minor stakes winning dam won 3 of 4 starts for 52k, all wins sprinting and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Anofficerandalady (6-20, 200k, including 3 of 11 turf starts for 142k); Solis has won with 3 of 9 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

La Majestique

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 7% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 26 starts for 66k, including 0-for-5 over turf; this miss is a 1/2 to Action King (2-22, 20k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 9k).

Murmure

She can't be ignored while making her first start in the maiden claiming ranks and Velazquez has won with 7 of 27 (26%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting; she's out of a stakes placed dam who won 2 of 6 turf starts for 51k, and this miss is a 1/2 to stakes winner Medolina (3-7, 130k over turf); winner from latest won next out at CD on 5/2 going 1 1/16m vs. 75k OPC's with a 74 Beyer.

Galroyale

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 4 of 16 starts for 302k, including 3 of 7 turf starts for 190k; she wasn't able to get much going in her career debut after going to post at 55-1 but maybe the move to turf can help.

Dreaming of Kitten

She's by a top turf sire and her one start over turf can be viewed in a positive light, and this will be her first turf start in the maiden claiming ranks; third-place finisher from latest won next out at AP on 5/15 going 1m vs. 12.5-10k MCL's with a 65 Beyer.

Quarla

She has a chance to prove to be a solid 40k claim for her current connections and she looks like the type who can benefit from having a few starts behind her; like to see the improvement she showed along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in her first start wearing blinkers in her latest outing.

Little Miss Brown

Her turf form has been plenty strong enough to give her the look of a top contender in this spot and she appears to be taking a well meant drop in class while getting an aggressive rider switch to Castellano; there's a chance the early pace will be slow to develop, and that would be just fine with this miss.

Jilly Mac

This will be a favorable spot for this filly to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track and this will be the first time that she's raced over dirt wearing blinkers; she looks like she can prove to be the dominant early speed, so a gate-to-finish victory is within her grasp.

Angel Choir

She took a step in the right direction in her turf debut at second asking and she's out of a G3 stakes placed dam who won 5 of 22 starts for 152k, including 4 of 15 turf starts for 134k, and this miss is a 1/2 to G2 stakes placed Quail Hill (4-31, 173k, including 3 of 17 turf starts for 94k).

Treasured

She's run well in her four turf attempts and this will be her first start in the maiden claiming ranks; she owns fine positional speed and going to look for her to be involved in the running every step of the way; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 5/25 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 74 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Awesome Lute

Worth follow-up because of the new connections involved; the gelding's sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 2.69 million; the dam went 3 for 20 earning 69K; among the winning siblings is 71K earner Awesome Bull; respect.

Stalagmite

Brave in defeat in his last assignment, first attempt at the claiming level; should be on or near a similar pace here and be a major force; exacta recommendation unless the inside paths have proven to be negative.

Thrill Hill

Sheds the blinkers after disappointing in all recent starts at short odds; his latest gate breeze, however is one of his best and he perhaps he can awaken over this new soil; will offer much better value on the board today.

Mineral Water

Best effort was way back on the inner dirt and he has shown little in the way of rallying capability since; doubt that six furlongs is his ideal but perhaps the blinker addition will help him focus; never seems to get bet and that trend will continue.

Regretless

Decent a.m. breezes of late; the colt's sire won a G3 stakes and 794K; progeny of Take Me Out have won 12 percent of their debuts; the dam won 1 of 22 and 44K; among the winning sibs is 138K earner Strikeuptheblues.

Hidden Warrior

Good try in his 2013 finale and the returning workout regimen is fair; 5-year-old makes his first start for a tag and is in the hands of a trainer who continues to win at an excellent clip; may awaken against this lot.

Tottie Royer

Beginner hails from 219K winner Roaring Fever whose descendants have scored in 7 out of 125 initial starts; the dam was zero for 2 in her career; among the winning sibs is 150K earner Better Make Money.

Larrytheeducator

Might have been hindered by inside slot in that first venture; his sire won 5 of 8 and 450K while the dam won 3 of 23 and 95K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; most recent half-mile breeze was not inspiring.

Ronnie's Whey

Yet to finish in the money although the switch to this surface can do wonders; a very steady set of half-mile breezes in the bank to consider; lures Rosario and that can certainly help with the upgrade; not out of the question in this open affair.

Thug Daddy

Just like Hidden Warrior, he makes his first try in the claiming realm; exits an above average race which featured a blowout winner and has been unlucky in one way or another in every start; outer post may prove troublesome but he cannot be discounted. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Jonrah

Drops in to face straight claimers off another weak effort this time over the local sod; New York bred does own a score here, as well as a handful of back numbers that fit in this spot and he does figure to be a nice price, but he's going to need to step things up third time back from the break to get in the mix here.

Most Happy Fella

Tries the green for the first time in quite a while after failing to show any of his signature early foot against fellow statebreds over the local man track last month; 7 year old offered little in his first crack over the sod and his sibs are a combined 0 for 27 over the footing so don't know that he's gonna go much better second time over the stuff; have to pass on him.

Golden Itiz

First part of the coupling has tailed off since returning from the brief freshening after just missing against better in his first East coast start off this outfit's mid-winter claim; 7 year old lost his best shot at the break when downed at odds on last weekend but the stretch back out should help him; he has never stepped over a wet track though he's bred to love it and he was G3 SP on dirt just last summer; current condition is certainly a cause for concern, but at his best he's a pretty scary presence.

Star of Sarava

Gets a new pilot for his first off this solid outfit's claim but he'll be stepped up significantly in company for his second start off the freshening; expect his speed will be prominent from the bell in this one but there are others with lick signed on and he does remain winless from 8 career sod tries; part of the pace but don't think he'll prove a big threat late.

Lots of Love Mom

Speedy gelding has had his stamina issues since returning for his 7 year old campaign and now he'll drop in to face straight claimers; gelding was solid on the front end last year and he will get the services of a top pilot for this, but if the field remains intact he could get caught up in pace from the bell and that won't make it easy for him to stay; another who figures softened up some for the drive.

Zoebear

Top pilot sticks after this guy encountered some trouble on the main track in his first start at the level off this barn's claim; gelding does own a competitive score from just a handful of starts on the lawn and his price does figure to be better in this spot.

Seeker

Barn's second runner in here wired cheaper on the main track first off their claim last month and now he'll make his turf debut against this better set; his sire gets 10% winners from his initial surface starters but his GSP, SW dam was winless from 3 turf tries; gelding is kin to multiple SW and 336K earner Classify who banked 336K and won twice on the green including the first time he stepped on the stuff; pace scenario won't make it easy for him.

Treasury Devil

Other half of the entry drops off this sharp outfit's buy and they took him from a top turf conditioner; he owns some of the better surface numbers in here so he clearly catches a softer bunch, but some of his better efforts have come at longer trips; off the pace type will get a contested clip to run at here and that should only enhance his kick; one to fear in the lane.

Ampersand

Fresh statebred drops again while returning from a few months on the shelf; he hasn't been very good against better in his last handful of starts and it has been quite a while since he's seen the winner's circle; nice to see Lezcano take the call but have to side with others on the win end.

Cozy Kitten

Cuts back in distance for the drop to straight claimers after offering little in his first start off the barn's claim; gelding was quite good from a figure standpoint while going longer on the Gulfstream lawn in the winter and maybe the solid clip he'll see up top today will help rally his kick; can get in the mix for a share.

Battle Hardened

MTO adds the hood for his local debut while dropping back in for a tag off a weak 2 turn effort at Delaware last month; gelding ran well 2 back at Churchill and his route try prior to that earned a pretty sharp number; bounce back effort puts him in the mix here if the rains come.

Monument Hill

Outside drawn 8 year old drops in class for his local return after a brief freshening off a couple of big figure efforts in Florida; he was right there with better in his most recent crack on this circuit last summer and did hit the board in each of his tries on the local course; draws a tough post but may just be better than these; one to beat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Another Incident

Proects to save ground then make one run; the winner and 5th-place finisher from last posted 71-67 Beyer speed figures in next-out BEL-allowance and 25K-claiming wins; wokeup on BEL dirt when closing well at shorter; chance to move forward 2nd time off the bench; would need a strong Beyer speed figure improvement off recent races to make any impact here.

Simply Spectacular

Bounce chance graduating with a career-best Beyer following a 60-day absence and now back in 30 days for this; great sign he posted that big effort 1st time racing for this trainer; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 79-70 in next-out KEE allowance and TAM-MSW wins.

Holiday's Jewel

Some of these enter off layoffs with high-percerntage fresh trainers while her trainer has produced just 11%-fresh winners since 2013; has been idle off a dull effort when defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 79 in a next-out BEL alw. win; have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Previous

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when outfinished at shorter than today's event; she did stumble at the break and making such a huge move on the turn probably hurt her finishing punch in last; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 84 in a next-out PIM- alw. win; the one to beat.

Mei Ling

Has a lot to prove at this level off the 11-length loss to Previous; the added distance here doesn't help the cause; keeps the win rider producing 32% BEL winners for the barn; projects to chase Dowager early then hopes to find missing stamina late.

Hot Splash

Versatile sort can win on the lead or from off the pace; figures to sit just off Dowager then get 1st run on the closers; 30%-winning fresh trainer off the tough-beat mud loss; 4 biggies off the October claim; his last BEL start was a win and his record here suggests he is a horse for the course type; had to love that he posted a career-best Beyer in a win 3-back at today's distance defeating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; the pick.

Dowager

The one to catch after racing on the lead in 4 of last 5 starts; this field is top heavy with speedsters noting her one race at today's distance was an exacta set-the-pace fade; the trainer is superb 23% winners with similar layoff runners and a good sign the win rider stays right here; contender. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Full Pads

Improved in the grass bow but this is a new league; dam was 0 for 5; 3 of 4 siblings won, this is the first to try grass, one banked over $160K; respect this clever barn.

Dulha

Cosmonaut 2 for 8 with first-time turfers; Grade 3 winning sire earned over $1.2 million on turf, lost only start at 2; 5 for 33 dam banked nearly $130K, won 4 times on turf; several multiple race winners in the family; 5 tried grass to no avail, top kin banked over $180K going 4 for 43; passing.

Mr Ciolko

Noonmark 3 for 26 with debuters, 1 for 12 with first-time grass runners; Grade 3 winning sire won at 2, banked over $350K, never turfed; turf only 2 for 8 dam banked $35K; lone half sis King of the Disco took 7 of 35, earned $75K, never turfed; trainer has been a dynamo with debuters.

Latigo Trail

See Freud's Fetish for sire stats; 5 for 23 dam earned nearly $70K, lost twice on grass; lone half bro Mr. Lit took one of 6, earned $35K, was never on turf; 2nd finisher in last won in this league next out here with an 89 Beyer and the 4th finisher took a MSW next out at FL with a 46 figure; we have not seen the best of this one.

Sunbio

He has more speed than he just showed but the route may have dulled his zip; at least both siblings won on grass once; 3 Beyer regression since the stakes try; overdue.

Boston Strong

Pioneerof the Nile 4 for 18 with debuters, 5 for 7 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2, took multiple Grade 1s, won once on grass; 3 for 9 dam won on grass once, earned about $60K; long half bro Infinite Magic took a G3, won nearly $225K, half of the 4 wins came on grass; he looks fit enough.

Lyrical Miracle

Miracle Man 5 for 7 with first-time turfers; stakes placed sire took only start at 2, won 5 of 18, banked nearly $190K, won once on grass; dam 0 for 1; this is her first to roll; April race came back double live and the 2nd and 4th finishers in last graduated next out; gelding is starting to figure it out.

Freud's Fetish

Freud about 11% with debuters in a 369-runner sample; about 13% with first-time turfers in a 249-runner grid; Freud was 2nd a half in debut at 2 at The Curragh at 6 furlongs on a yielding course, graduated there at 3 at about a mile, was Group 2 placed; dam third in best moment; 3 of 4 sibs won, 2 tried grass but failed on turf, none were special; no published moves beyond 4 furlongs.

Junger

Brings some semblance of speed but must find a way to deal with the Albertrani among others; no turf success in the tree but one sibling banked over $100K; look for rider to send hard trying to steal it.

Shinnecock Bay

Soph flashed career speed and could show more with the blinks this time; family on the weak side with no turf success either; decent move on the 12th, just might forget to stop.

Bob and Jim

Not thrilled with the multiple beats for a tag; okay, he split the cast in last but didn't scare anybody and he has not lost 18 times because he has a heart of gold; apparently not much of a work horse; would be careful here.

Spa City Treasure

Like this progression; he flashed a bit of speed in the debut, and then came running last time after sluggish start; finally off the rail; 3/14 winner took a $35K N2L fray next out, then was 2nd beaten 2 in a $25K optional; dam 0 for 2; 2 of 3 siblings won in the minor leagues, 2 tried grass but failed on turf; may love Big Apple.