Belmont: Closer Looks for June 19, 2014

Race 1

Thomas Hill

Is neck away from beating Special Skills 2 back at today's distance; have to go back to September since he's won and while racing well in defeat he is 0-for-6 since the November claim; races well fresh posting the 2-back effort following a 52-day absense but is now back in 18 days for this; makes sense to cut back to 6F again after being outfinished at 7 panels when favored in last; the 3-back winner repeated in a PIM-starter allowance with a 85 Beyer speed figure.

Special Skills

Career-best Beyer coming right off the August layoff but is a bounce candidate for this; he graduated 2 summers ago on BEL Inner Turf at 6F and latest was sharp rallying past Thomas Hill to win the exacta photo; the 2-back runner-up and show finisher Beyered 86-82 in next-out MTH-optional-claiming wins; he beat the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 84-82 in next-out MTH-63K-62K-stakes wins; if can repeat last is a big factor and the one to beat.

Hackleton

Main Track Only entry races 1st off the claim noting the 5-for-13 dirt record with his co-field-best Beyer speed figure on a 'good' main track; owns the numbers' edge posting a best-last-race Beyer; 30%-winning 1st off the claim trainer makes him doubly tough if in.

Golden Rifle

Today is his shortest-distance test ever on turf which should help the cause as he figures to be the pacesetter; won at longer 4 back beating the show finisher who Beyered 56 in a next-out $12,500-maiden-claiming win; since switched to grass has been a new colt; keeps the high-percentage win rider which helps the cause; the pick.

Confrontation

Main Track Only entry is still trying to remember his co-field-best debut Beyer in the SAR mud when loose on the lead; it was the only race where he's made the front so dangerous if on the lead today; defeated the 5th and 8th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 92-87 in next-out MTH-optional claiming and BEL-40K-claiming wins.

Mop Head

Has every right to improve upon latest in today's 2nd off-the-bench scenario; is 0-for-7 on grass and faces multiple-lawn winners which makes him a tough call; the winner from last repeated in a MTH-68K stakes with a 92 Beyer; the 2-back winner repeated in a PID-250K stakes with a 94 speed figure.

Joe Can Gallop

Exits 2 losses combined by more than 40 lengths; the winner from last repeated in a CBY-75K event with a 94 Beyer; won on SAR green 2 back but in his next 3 grass races did come close to firing back to that Beyer; the SAR-August winner repeated in a KEE allowance with an 89 Beyer; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Lofty Heart

Broke next to last then did not make any impact; his 3-back graduation looks better now defeating the show finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out GP-20K-maiden-claiming win; 0-for-11 jockey-trainer combo since 2013; off last have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Sandyinthesun

Cuts back to the shortest-distance test since his SAR-5,5F turf career debut 12th-place finish September, 2011; has a lot to prove following the December layoff; was outrun at long odds in 3 starts pre-rest noting his best Beyer speed figure was on the SAR grass; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 88 in a next-out MTH-74K win; others appeal more. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Annie Walker

Stretches back out while dropping in for a tag after tiring from her early efforts in the local slop; filly is kin to an 11 time main track route winner so maybe the added trip helps and she does figure to appreciate the class relief in this spot; with a sharp interim drill on her tab she's one to consider.

Brandini

She's another tackling claimers for the initial time after tiring from a wide spot in her first start of the year; filly's 2 efforts here in the fall were fast enough to blow these out of the water and with her last behind her she certainly has a right to move forward; one to beat at a short price.

Mini Muffin

Hood goes back on after showing little in the local slop off the freshening; mare hasn't been a serious threat in any race on her page and there's not a lot to suggest things will go any better for this longshot on the stretchout today; have to pass on her.

Colloquial

Adds shades for the drop to claimers while looking to get a dry main strip for the first time; filly lost her best shot when breaking slowly from the fence in her turf debut and she did make a little progress late while catching slop in her career debut here last month; dam won 6 main track routes and banked 244K so maybe today's trip agrees with her.

Peach Lake

Proved little match for the winner when stretched out last time and now she'll give the level and trip another shot; gal who finished just in front of her in that one returns here as well and this outfit still hasn't seen the winner's circle at the stand; have to limit her use to underneath in exotics.

Music Maid

Held second money in front of one of these gals after making the lead in her first crack at this level; there's not a lot of early foot signed on here so she could find herself close to the top again and maybe she's able to last a little longer this time.

Contender's Queen

Filly starts from the outside slot while making her first start under this new outfit's care for a tag; barn is profitable fresh and this gal has earned sprint numbers that would put her in the mix here, but her sibs are a combined 0 for 6 routing so don't know that the added ground will do much to help her get better; she did run into a couple of good ones when last sighted across town. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Seeking Harmony

His best effort makes him a player in this spot, but he hasn't been on top of his game in three starts this year, and don't like to see that he's tired late in recent starts after having race shape in his favor; prefer to keep looking around in here.

Big Sam

He's been in good form since being returned from a layoff two starts ago, but he has been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in those races, and he will need his best effort to date if he's to see his number posted on top after this one is run.

Magna Breeze

His form has clearly headed in the right direction since being placed over turf four starts back and he appears to be very well meant while getting a rider switch to Castellano for his second start for the Maker barn; Castellano has won with 27 of 83 (33%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Grand Rapport

Grade 3 winner has seen faster days, but he's still capable of producing a competitive performance at this level of competition; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/31 going 1m vs. starter alw. rivals with a 91 Beyer.

Zane

Like the idea of this gelding getting back over turf for this and it's worth noting the success that this barn has been having when returning horses from this type of a layoff; if he runs the way he did just two starts back, he'll be tough to tackle.

Poliziano

Not sure that his best race is quite strong enough to threaten the top contenders in here, but he's only made two turf starts, and when seeing that he has a strong turf pedigree, it isn't unreasonable to give him another chance to see what he can do racing on grass.

Torment

He looks like he's heading in the right direction as he gets ready to make his third start back from a layoff, but this does appear to be a tough bunch of starter allowance rivals for him to be meeting up with; looking toward others.

Sierra Alpha (GB)

He has a fine turf pedigree and it looks like he regained some of his better form in his latest start; he can have a say in the outcome on his best day, but don't like to see that he's entering this race on a long losing streak.

Media Kid

He's proven to be a fine 35k claim for his current connections and the 86 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest performance is the best last race figure in this field, and it doesn't hurt to see that he earned that figure over this turf course; must respect.

Seeker

He was ready to roll in his first start after a claim in his latest outing and this will be a favorable spot for him to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf; he looks like the dominant early speed and he can prove to be tough to reel in through the lane.

Countryman (GB)

Since making a favorable impression in his first start in America his form has headed in the wrong direction, and he will need to produce a top try if he's to get over on the top contenders in here; not going to be shocked if he shows up with a competitive run, but others entice more.

Kiss of Thunder

He's a good fit at this level of competition and like to see what he did in his first start for this barn after a claim in his latest outing; he's shown the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario and going to look for him to give a good account of himself against these. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Distant Thoughts

Hung wide in 3 of 4 starts, soph needs to pick it up; a full brother did win 3 times but lost all 7 turf outs; soph has more speed than he just flashed and Lezcano got a chance to figure him out; would still tread lightly.

Morse

Tapit about 9% with first-time grass runners in a 328-runner study; sire was unbeaten in 2 juvenile starts, banked over $550K taking 3 of 6, was never on turf; dam's lone win was a dirt route; lone half bro You're My Buddy won twice, was 2nd in best turf result; note he debuted for $60K less than purchase price.

Eight Cents

Even the Score about 13% with first-time grass runners in a 134-runner sample; sire won 9 times, thrice on grass, banked over $750K; dam out of the money 4 times; lone half sister Academic Probation graduated on grass for lone score; could slip in for a section.

Hooping

Off a career Beyer, he has the two races to draw from now and he did take the overland route in last; 4th finisher 3/13 graduated next out and the winner that day took a $20K optional next out with a 74 Beyer; another slice.

Professor Pegasus

In for $90K less than purchase price, he must be respected on the drop alone; 5th finisher in the debut graduated next out and the winner of the debut took a $75K optional right back with a 98 Beyer and then made it 3 for 3 taking the Florida Derby with the same figure; stakes winning 5 for 22 dam earned over $270K; 4 of 6 siblings won; top kin Juanita won multiple Grade 2s, banked over $500K; has some things to prove.

Plated

Not thrilled with the several defeats vs. softer; several siblings tried grass to no avail; note he did carry 144 pounds in the hurdle affair last time; needs very best.

Azorian

Would expect this runner to have the stalking duties of the entry; SW 9 for 31 dam earned nearly $400K, won 8 times on grass; 3 of 4 siblings won and 2 cashed on grass; he should have his sea legs under him by now.

Dividend

Blinks and fresh Lasix now and wonder if the shades were on for the best of 19 drill on the 11th; 3 for 11 dam banked about $33K, lost 5 times on grass; this is her first to race; this gelding looks live.

Neilos

Off the rail today, runner set the pedestrian splits 4/12 and still gave up the ghost; the 2nd, 3rd and 8th finishers 4/12 graduated next out; slight drop may help him and barn has been rolling.

Corinthian Summer

Colt showed ability from the get go; forced to steady two back, he's been around the wire in 3 of 5 but has also burned some Benjamins; 2 siblings tried grass to no avail; can't fault those that give him one more chance. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Anmaat

Gets back to the lawn while making his first local start off 4 months on the shelf for a barn that boasts nice numbers with its returnees; gelding rallied to break his maiden first out on the Gulfstream green and he's working like he's ready to return running in this spot; one to consider.

Stowe

MTO took a big step forward to break his maiden off the break here second time out; colt will tackle winners for the first time today and this outfit hasn't done much of late with its runners second back from the break; pedigree says a wet track will be ok with him.

Birds Gone Wild

MTO makes his first start for a new outfit while returning from a brief freshening today; 4 year old broke his maiden at this one turn trip 2 starts back in Florida and after subsequently taking on allowance runners, maybe the drop puts him in the right spot; nice to see the top local pilot taking the call.

Pretty Nauty

Tracked a slow clip in breaking his maiden at a slightly longer trip here earlier in the month and now the statebred will tackle older winners; he is lightly raced which means there should be some room for upside, but he'll need it to have a say in the outcome here.

Uncle Mitcho

He's been sidelined since getting up for second money against statebreds across town more than half a year back; gray did break his maiden over the sod and he's been on the worktab for a while, but the barn hasn't had any recent luck bringing them back; maybe for a minor share.

Handsome Dennis

Beaten last out chalk returns for his first off the barn's claim in a protected spot after catching mud in his first start on the East coast; 4 year old ran ok on the green in California but note he has yet to win over this type of footing; hard to ignore the barn's numbers with this type right back, but he's going to take his share of tote support.

Prophet's Cat

Sat a tracking spot in his turf debut but had little when asked and finished well behind one of the guys he'll catch again in this spot; gelding goes for a barn that hasn't won a race at the stand and though he has a right to improve second on the lawn, don't think he'll have much of a say in the outcome at what figures to be another long price.

Madam I'm Adam

Ran well to be beaten less than a couple of lengths this trip and course while returning for his first start of the year; gelding goes for a hot barn that boasts terrific numbers with its runners going second back from the break and the outfit's first call pilot will get aboard; doesn't win often, but looms a big threat in here.

Smokey Brown

Runner up in his last 2 was coming as the wire approached in his first crack at the level over the local course earlier in the month; don't know that the pace will be that hot today, but he showed 2 back that he can handle a course with give in it and he'll get a switch to a solid journeyman pilot for this; contender.

Old Upstart

MTO was given a little time after blowing a clear midstretch lead in his first local start while trying winners for the initial time; he's bred to like it wet and his speed should have him prominent from the outset; looks to be the one they'll have to beat if the rains come.

Cashmere Cat

Went last to first to break his maiden when stretched out and moved to the turf, each for the initial time a few weeks back; he'll tackle winners with a last out Beyer that fits quite well, but don't know that he's going to get a lot of pace in front of him in this spot; still, he's worth a look.

Permanent Campaign

He's another who broke through when moved to the lawn for the first time and he did it while tracking a slow clip in his return from a brief break; colt tries winners for the initial time for a barn that hits at a nice clip second back from the break and he was certainly impressive powering away from his rivals; one to beat right back.

Againsome

MTO was beaten at odds on while trying this level for the first time off a sharp maiden score across town; colt has some early foot which should put him in a decent spot early and the barn does well with its stretchouts; contender if this one comes off.

Vona

MTO wired a field of maiden sprinters in the off the turfer here last month, earning a career best Beyer along the way; gelding tackles winners from a wide draw and his wet track effort at even money 2 starts back wasn't very sharp; speed keeps him involved early if the rains come, but prefer to beat him on the win end. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Very Cherry Candy

Versatile 4-year-old has improved dramatically this year and getting off Polytrack probably had a lot to do with it; she looked like she might be in trouble in her latest when three of them went by her early; however, she got off the rail, moved to the outside and took control midstretch; she has never been better and expecting another solid effort; the pick.

Miss Besilu

Lone try on dirt wasn't very good but it came in her debut and she's improved quite a bit since then; she wasn't able to keep up to Grade 1 company in her latest and Room Service came right back to win the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita; she'll appreciate the easier company but not sure this is her favorite surface; prefer others.

Cloudy Vow

Back to dirt following an even effort at Presque Isle Downs but she finished behind Oasis At Midnight the last two times they met and she will need to improve to contend here; horse she beat in a key race at Gulfstream April 4 won a $25K optional race with a 76 Beyer in her next start there; the past five years Martin has a 20 percent strike rate with new shooters; prefer others.

Oasis At Midnight

She posted back-to-back 60 Beyer Speed Figures in her last two starts and it is going to take a much-higher figure to win this; her career-best of 72 comes well short of the mark and unless there is dramatic improvement she is going to have a hard time keeping up; at least she should have an honest pace to work with but others look more attractive.

Our Amazing Rose

She flopped as the heavy chalk in her latest but the winner freaked and she was the one chasing her early; she figures to set the tempo here and could be dangerous as the lone speed; sire earned over $1 million winning 11 sprints; dam was unraced and her only foal to race is strictly a sprinter; the past 5 years Pletcher has a 21 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time, however; contender.

Tahoe Tigress

Not a bad effort in the $200K Critical Eye for NY-breds and she may have needed the race after being away for almost five months; easy to imagine her moving forward in her second start back and she has an affinity for this surface with 4 wins from 6 starts here; winner of her latest has lost twice in 10 starts and she was coming off a win in the Grade 2 Distaff across town; big shot. - Randy Goulding

Race 9

Petrocelli

Shipper from the shore is a curious item especially with Monmouth Park's leading rider aboard; the gelding broke maiden at the course and distance long ago and his latest workout is a silver bullet (second best of all); recommended if inside path has proven to be favorable on the card.

Midnight Missile

Tries a straightaway mile for the first time but has an expert trainer in his corner; ran well in the last assignment when rallying after the fact; wheels back quickly and may be able to handle the extra distance here if the pace unfolds to his liking.

Onecats Chance

Best efforts by far have been at the Big A and although very wide in his last try, he has been clearly beaten by some of these rivals in recent starts; latest training track breeze was strong but he usually works well anyway; probably arrives late on the scene today.

Noble Cornerstone

Might have been best in his comeback race of a month ago if he did not drift out in the final moments; sophomore faces his elders again but was though good enough to appear in consecutive graded stakes earlier this year; despite the latest a.m. drill being sharp, make sure to demand a better price today.

One More Chief

Note he has never finished in the exacta when negotiating an off track so perhaps the last trouncing can be forgiven; still remains a question mark in route racing and his barn mate Midnight Missile has the recency edge; difficult to fathom at this point.

Let's Discuss

Conflicting signals are based on the fact that he stretches out for the first time yet he has shown more pace prompting ability than most of the field; a clean getaway for a change would also brighten his prospects; playable.

Here He Fitz

One of several in this field coming out of the same event on 5/25; this gelding did not have a smooth trip in that run and, like the previous entrant, has shown no preference at all for a wet racing surface; should be more of a presence on dry ground as the effort 2 back indicates; consider.

Beyond Empire

Bold finish last time to capture the place, a powerful effort considering the wide trip; previous attempt at the one-turn mile was strong as well; also take a look at the final race of 2013 where he was involved in a prolonged pace battle; should be in the mix today without much stress.

Jack's R Wild

On the shelf since capturing the place in this class last month; the most experienced member of this line-up may work out another ideal journey behind battling speeds but he still cannot be endorsed as the one to key on top; worth some use in underneath portions of exotics.

Wake Up in Malibu

Makes only his third start but has shown some promise; made 2 moves in the last score in a race which featured large gaps; continues his a.m. regimen of excellent workouts and may be able to handle the distance transition; his sire won 1 of 2 starts and 33K; the dam 5 of 10 starts and 248K; sib to G1 A Shine Forward who banked 3.12 million.

Salisbury Knight

All kinds of trouble last time out when checking in a respectable fourth; clear outside slot may afford him a chance for a clean stalking trip; unlike others in the field, he would certainly benefit if there is an off track at post time; can atone over such footing at a better price this afternoon. - Jim Kachulis