Belmont: Closer Looks for June 18, 2014

Race 1

Yankee Dime

First from Zito flashed speed in his first two starts but didn't hang around very long and then didn't show up the last time he ran; horse that beat him in his second start won the Grade 2 Nashua and Holy Bull before finishing fourth as the chalk n the Grade 1 Florida Derby; this guy has been away since Nov. and the past five years Zito has a 10 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a 180 day break or more - 0/5 if they were moving from MSW to maiden claiming; prefer others.

Borseggiatore

Deep closer just missed in his latest at Churchill and he should have an honest pace to work with here; the winner went unplaced in his next two starts; horse that finished third won a maiden special weight race at Churchill with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure June 7; would like to have seen him return a bit sooner but the past five years Zito has won with 13 percent of his starters coming back between 31-60 days; not out of the question.

My Son Ernie

He's shown decent speed in both of his starts in straight maiden races at Pimlico and the latest was a key race with the second-place finisher coming back to win a MSW race at Monmouth with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure; blinkers go back on and he ran a better race wearing them in his debut; dam won 6 routes; lone sib is a sprint winner; Dutrow 40 percent at the meet and it is encouraging to see Velazquez accept the call; big shot.

Perfect Danger

It's been almost a year since he ran and since 2010 his trainer is 0/4 with horses coming back from a layoff of 300 days or more; horse that won his last start finished second in the Grade 2 Kings Bishop with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure two starts later; he could be the one they have to catch but there are some big gaps showing in his works so we're going to look in other directions.

Philip

Debuts for Iselin who the past five years is 1/7 with first-time starters; Fusaichai Pegasus roughly 11 percent as a debut sire; dam didn't win her only start; $98K 3/41 Miss Krafty is the top money earner among four sibs that all won; he should be fit enough after working a mile on June 2; tote board could give us more clues.

Cost Affective

He dropped in for a tag for the first time in his slatest and he just about got it done as the favorite; the 87 Beyer Speed Figure he earned is easily the top last-race figure and anything close will likey win this; it is possible he could bounce after posting his career-best figure but he came back with a solid half-mile move June 1 and it is encouraging to see Rosario take the call; he should also get a nice trip from a stalking position; the pick.-Randy Goulding

Race 2

Devilish Love

She has the look of a top contender in this spot while making her first start for the Dutrow barn, and don't let recent statistics mislead, as Dutrow has won with 42 of 162 (26%) starters making their first start for him after a trainer change the past five years; runner up from latest won next out at Pen on 9/21 going 1m 70y vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 64 Beyer.

Medaglia d'Argento

The drop in class helped, but she was much improved in her first turf start with blinkers in her latest outing and this is a decent spot for her to take on winners for the first time; she's out of a G3 winning dam who won 6 of 25 turf starts for 430k; Rosario has won with 3 of 9 mounts for this barn in 2014.

Official

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 14 starts for 83k, including 0-for-1 over turf; turf and distance are concerns, but her form has improved since moving into this barn, and Velasquez has won with 7 of 24 (29%) mounts for this outfit at the current meeting.

Sundae School

Not wild about Bernardini as a turf sire, but this filly has been on top of her game since being placed back over turf two starts ago, and at the very least, she merits consideration underneath in the exotics.

Stage Name

She put together a pretty nice run in her turf debut in her latest outing and it doesn't hurt her to benefit from the services of Castellano once again; Pompa-owned miss might prove to be the dominant early speed, and a gate-to-finish triumph doesn't appear to be out of the question.

Barbara's Smile

She deserves a lot of credit for getting the job done in her career debut, and it isn't like she benefited from a soft trip that day; fourth-place finisher from debut, Saratoga Karaoke, won next out here on 5/30 going 6f over turf vs. 40k MCL's with a 69 Beyer; have to respect the potential for better that is living here at the moment.

Porvoo

The 1-for-28 career mark alone is a reason to look in another direction, and there isn't anything in her recent form to suggest that she's about to show up with an effort that can get her into the mix against these; she has the look of an outsider.-Brian Pochman

Race 3

Sugar Beach

Last two were a lot better but she didn't beat much in her win over $5K n/2/y at Finger Lakes two back and the horse that won her latest was coming off a second in a $5K starter race at Finger Lakes; she does own the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, however, and she picked up slices in 2 of her 3 starts over this surface; speed breaking directly to her right doesn't help her chances, though; consider for the exotics.

Platinum Bombshell

She set the pace an held on well in a similar race May 26 and she really hasn't run a bad race going this distance; if she breaks on top she could be gone but she has won from a stalking position so Arroyo has more than one option if Sugar Beach gets the jump on her; contender.

Mlle Margaux

Back to dirt but considering she couldn't keep up in a $12,500 conditional claimer on the inner track in her previous race across town it is hard to say if the surface switch is going to help; the move to a new trainer could, though, as the past five years Martin has a 20 percent strike rate with new shooters; she's also had a couple of solid recent works; not out of the question.

Heidi's Holiday

Just a couple of wins in 23 starts isn't very encouraging and she's been waxed by double digits in her last three starts; she was obviously overmatched when she tried first-level allowance state-breds in her latest but she also couldn't keep up in her two previous races with conditional claimers; passing.

Kate Is a Ten

She improved a bit in her latest and she didn't finish that far behind Platinum Bombshell who is going to have to deal with Sugar Beach this time; she also gets off the rail and should get a nice trip from a stalking position; just a single win, though, and she will need to keep improving to contend here; maybe the bottom half of the exotics, but that's about it.

Penthouse Party

5-year-old won the last time she ran on this circuit and she is going to appreciate the easier company after trying $25K optional company in three straight races at Pimlico; horse that won her race two back earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure when she came back to finish fourth in a stakes at Delaware; this gal didn't fire in her latest on the lawn but she shouldn't mind being back on dirt in a considerably easier spot; the pick.-Randy Goulding

Race 4

Tordita

Great sign that her race 1st off the claim was an exacta finish and the 2nd-best Beyer speed figure of her career; keeps a 31%-winning BEL jockey-trainer combo; new surface is the issue; her sire is 4-for-109 with 1st-turf starters; dam earned 173K on grass (3-for-18); her only other foal to race Zazz is 2-0-0-0 on turf; she has been unable to race back to her debut-career-best Beyer speed figure on dirt when beating the show finisher who Beyered 64 in a next-out OP-$12,500-maiden-claiming win.

Prove It All Night

Raced on the lead in each start; It's Your Dime is likely to be breathing down her neck from the gate; the winner from last is now 2-for-2 repeating in an allowance with an 80 Beyer; the 2-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a BEL-MSW race with a 67 speed figure; is the one to catch and beat.

Enchanted Dreams

Was gaining ground on It's Your Dime at the end of latest 6F event wishing this race were a little longer in distance; 6 minor awards during career she often races well in defeat; hopes Prove It All Night duels It's You Dime into defeat which would help her late kick.

It's Your Dime

Ended a 7-race streak of racing on the lead when she stalked it well in last; has to beat Prove It All Night out of the gate then hold off the closers; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when favored but outfinished at 6F; the final yards today are the biggest issue; the 3-back show finisher posted a Beyer 75 Beyer in her next-out SAR-35K-maiden-claiming win; view as a speedy contender for win honors.

Quality Legend

Sire is 36-for-428 with 1st-turf starters; dam banked 138K on grass (4-for-17); she produced 3 foals to race on turf (0-for-8 combined); drops below the original purchase price after showing a 2nd-time out Beyer regression which is not a good sign and usually an improvement race; 1-for-17 BEL jockey-trainer combo does not help the confidence level that she will wakeup on the grass.

Benny's Bullet

Her game is racing right on the lead but has speedsters Prove It All Night and It's Your Dime to beat out of the gate for this; had the ground-losing 12 post when bet hard 2nd time off the bench when stalking then fading; the 3-back winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with an 82 Beyer.

Elissa Town

Cuts back to her shortest-distance test ever; way off best form; she produced the 3 lowest Beyers of career in last trio; has displayed talent during career posing a field-best Beyer speed figure at 2.5F longer than today's event; the 3-back show finisher graduated next out in a BEL-MSW race with a 75 Beyer.

Siena Sunshine

The barn yields 57% debut winners since 2013; sire is 53-for-465 with 1st-turf starters; 48-for-546 with 1st-time starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-3 dam who went 0-for-1 on grass; steady worktab on display for a 6%-BEL win rider this meet.

Gu Gu Beans

Defeated 6 runners in 4 races combined; the 3-back winner and show finisher Beyered 79-69 in next-out BEL-alw. and GP-75K-maiden-claiming wins; the debut runner-up graduated next out in an AQU-MSW race with a 53 speed figure; 3%-win trainer in 2014 yields 4% winners in turf sprints since 2013; is hard to recommend.

Rufus Ruth

10%-fresh trainer is 1-for the last-34 when racing maiden claimers; pre-rest loss saw her as no match for It's Your Dime; came close to graduating vs. much-lesser New York-bred maiden claimers 2 -back so is seemingly better suited for dirt.

Stormkeeper

Gets an ideal closer's setup if It's Your Dime and Prove It All Night duel each other into defeat; was bet like a good thing in her Maryland debut at 3-5 odds; she did not break well but finished full of run; the trainer yields 24% winners using the MSW-to-maiden claiming class drop some call the biggest class reduction in racing; 38-day freshening for a high-percentage off-the-bench barn; figures hard to hold off late; the pick.-Art Gropper

Race 5

Shayjolie

Game try in her maiden voyage last month and she turned in a pair of atypical 7 furlong breezes this month; her sire won 616K including G1 success; the dam won 6 of 14 and 146K; winning siblings include 821K earner Mythical Power.

Bird Rockette

Very fine effort in her first run against claimers (although the final time was modest); has not fared well at the straightaway mile previously yet the trainer at the helm has been on fire at the meet; conflicting signals for this daughter of Birdstone.

One Night

Showed only minor passing gear last season but does have important experience at the course and distance; her sire won multiple G2s and 769K while the dam won her only race and 25K; among the winning sibs is 56K earner Endless Fancy.

Magnolia Lane

Has earned several minor checks at various distances; tries the Belmont main oval for the first time but her workout only 3 days ago, a vast improvement over previous drills, suggests she is primed and ready; worth follow-up.

Make It Snappy

Did not recover from a slow break in her first go at Gulfstream; her sire won multiple G1s and 5.75 million while the dam won 6 of 10 and 633K; there are no winning siblings to mention; recent half-mile breeze was upbeat.

Miadora

On the shelf since failing to fire against a blowout winner in her Big A debut; she was sired by the mighty Ghostzapper who banked 3.44 million including multiple G1 scores; the dam won 2 of 5 and 36K; sib to 58K earner Fightertown.

Rapid Repair

Just missed in her first dirt attempt when rated nicely on the lead; her sire won a G1 and 480K while the mom went zero for 3; among the winning siblings is G3 victor Kitten's Point, winner of 278K.

Kate Greenaway

Caught a muddy surface in her first mile try and may do much better over a dry track; her sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million; the dam won 3 of 14 and 91K; winning siblings include G1 type Grace Hall who captured 1.46 million.-Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Scatcapade

Stretches back out off a career best Beyer placing in her local debut run; several of these like to be forwardly placed early and maybe she's able to secure a spot behind them down inside at this slightly longer trip; lightly raced filly is certainly one to consider in this spot.

Charm City Girl

Recent graduate with older turned the corner when stretched out and moved to the lawn in Maryland and now she'll turn back to sprint in her first local crack with winners; she gets back in with fellow sophomores here and should be able to find a spot close to the pacesetters early; sharp outfit calls upon a solid journeyman pilot.

Tasmona

Beaten chalk makes her second local start after catching a course with some give in it last month; gray may be better with that one behind her for an outfit that's going extremely well at the stand, but she's going to take her share of tote support in this spot; debut score came with the benefit of a hot clip up top and don't know that today's added panel will necessarily help her get back on track; top pilot does get aboard.

Inspired by Grace

She's another recent maiden winner who beat older and will make her first start with winners in her local debut run; while the number she earned last time wasn't particularly impressive, she did roll home while posting a pretty quick final fraction and has 7 panel experience under her belt; waters get deeper here but she's worth a look.

Epic Story

Steps on the lawn for the initial time after an open lengths score over older foes on the Delaware main track a couple of weeks ago; her sire is 5 for 42 with his first time turfers but the limited sprint winning dam's other foal to race never tried the green; don't know that she'll love the footing but she should be prominent from the bell.

Hillhouse High

Barn's second runner in here just missed while trying a slightly longer trip in her local return last month; expect she'll be tighter here for an outfit that hits at a nice clip second off the break and the slight cut back should only help; from close range, she's the one they'll have to beat.

Knacque

Graduated in a longer off the turfer with older while making her second start of the season and now she'll look to get back to the green in her first with winners; barn doesn't do so well with its runners switching surfaces, but this gal's effort 2 back earned a number that would put her in the mix here; exotics threat.

Flaring

Gets in a little lighter than the rest while making her second local start off a solid sprint try at a big price here last month; filly may not benefit from today's added trip and her numbers are a little light of what it would take to contend here so she'll need to keep improving; prefer others on the win end.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

E Biscuit

One for 20 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice it; disrespected on the tote at the shore in last, gelding has not been involved really in quite some time; lack of speed is another concern; can't endorse.

V. E. Day

Inching toward the winner in the debut, runner hooked clear winner in the GP finale and was game last time despite having slop kicked in his face; there is turf success in the tree and top kin All About Alex banked over $200K; legit player if he suits up.

Special Agent

Maybe he just wanted grass all along; and the barn is patient to boot; 2nd and 5th finishers in last took MSW events next out with 81 and 68 Beyers respectively; racer exited the live fray in the Keeneland finale and the blood is there for him to have a solid career as kin to Dunkirk, who is a Grade 1 placed near $400K player; too sharp to ignore.

Upper East Side

Pushed wide from marooned slot to kick off the career, colt nearly got up in the April fray and just had enough in the tank last time; cut out to run as an $825K purchase, his tactical speed should give him first run on the deep closers and note Bravo has had good success for Pletcher; future is bright as he is kin to Grade 2 winner and $550K earner Recapturetheglory.

Horvat Clan

He's been a hot claim box item for a reason; he brings back a lot of checks and he was 4 clear at this trip at Colonial; versatile enough to race close up on slow splits, or come from left field; Lezcano got a chance to figure him out last time; far too sharp to ignore.

Best Play

Second off the claimed worked to perfection for Jacobson; colt has a decent turn of late foot and he seems to have some confidence now after taking time to graduate; the fact is he still could be any kind as kin to Marsh Side, who won a G1 at 6, loved grass and banked over $2.3 million; repeat well within the realm.

Papy

Toss the local debut; wrong surface; fit enough to drill a couple of times since failing as chalk, could see this runner sitting a super stalk and pounce trip; one of the best things he has going for him is that he is proven at the trip and that is a mouthful; can't fault those that give him one more shot at glory.

Hines

This is the long fused component of the Pletcher runners; the way he finishes suggests he will adore this demanding distance; note show horse in last was 3 clear; sure, he has Special Agent to contend with again but the stuff is in the genes as kin Osidy handled grass, was a G3 winner and earned over $300K; he'll be rolling hard late.

Maximus Mike

Tiz Wonderful 6 for 48 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won a Grade 2 as a juvenile, banked over $250K taking 3 of 5, never turfed; dam 3rd thrice in best results; the 2 siblings to race are a combined 0 for 25; educated in the debut, he could be more involved early with the blinks this time; winner of the debut repeated in a $40K optional with an 81 Beyer; may need experience vs. winners.

Happy Fella

The win over the course can't hurt but he was fully extended and we really don't know how much it may have taken out of him; he almost got there at this level last year but just passed tired horses in the N1X spot two back; would be careful here.

Morning Calm

Connections thought enough of him to try the stakes; wide last time but nearly 3 clear, he may prefer a little give to the ground as his best races have come on off courses; he doesn't have to be 7th early on this time; expect better effort.

Succesful Brothers

It's never easy to beat winners right back but he held his own; agile enough to overcome being forced to steady in the win, he may be better served settling and making the one run; another slice?

Indy's Illusion

Pushed into the Florida Derby last year and only one solid race since; colt did press solid splits two back and was still coming late; breeding says distance should be there as hustling bug hired; don't sell too short.

Sir Leslie

Gelding has lost a little ground late in the last pair; he seems to move up in the off going so keep an eye to the sky; homebred has some talent, but may be better off staying with Empire-breds and getting his confidence.

Magnificent Moon

It took him awhile to figure it out and the win vs. conditioned claimers 2 back was not all that great; off an even try last time, this is his toughest test to date; look for rider to send hard if the race comes off the grass.-Brian Mulligan