Belmont: Closer Looks for June 13, 2014

Race 1

Nonna's Boy

Superior identical workout as his barn mate who draws alongside; this colt's sire won multiple G2 stakes and 769K (offspring of Distorted Humor have won 126 out of 758 debuts); the dam won 2 of 7 and 127K; this is her only foal to start.

Stanford

Progeny of Malibu Moon, who won 1 of 2 and 33K, have scored in 107 out of 768 initial starts; the dam went zero for 3 lifetime; there are no winning siblings to report; lures top rider Castellano for this unveiling.

Skerkis

His sire won at the G1 level while banking 310K; descendants of Majesticperfection are zero for 1 as far as winning their first test; the dam went 2 for 9 earning 16K; winning sibs include 188K earner Sea the Joy.

Bustin It

Sired by the undefeated Bustin Stones, a pure sprinter, who won 480K including G1 success; his offspring are 16 percent winners first time out; the dam won 1 of 2 attempts and 19K; among the winning siblings is 121K earner May Shares.

Blame It On Chris

Moderate upstate breeze pattern on view; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 4.36 million; progeny of Blame are zero for 1 in the first time victorious department; the dam was zero for 7; winning sibs include 30K earner Cajun Wedding.

Valuetempo

Playable if the price is right since the trainer excels with horses running back quickly; the grey's sire won 3 of 15 races and 414K while the dam involved won 4 of 26 and 105K; there are no winning siblings to mention. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Non Stop

Return was decent; note he won in the second off the layoff run in the 2014 opener; note this rider was up for the last 2 wins; fit enough to drill a couple of times since the last effort; still must find a way to turn the tables on the Contessa charge among others.

Fan Base

He has the 3 races to draw from now and the Beyers are going in the right direction; considering the cut back, he could be left with a lot of work to do turning for home; there seems to be enough speed here to help promote the kick; Rosario will have to time the rally to perfection.

Glory Game

Wonder if connections would not all that happy when they got this runner back after the claim in last?; you don't see them stopped on right off the claim all that often; not close in either turf out and last 2 drills on the sluggish side; must hurry.

Won Great Classic

Senior citizen is a good earner; he's put wins together in his career and his versatility could be his best asset; he can lead or track and get it done; repeat well within the scope.

Ganador

Posse has hit with about 8% of his first-time turfers in a 175-runner study, about 8% with first-time turfers after 141 starters; sire took debut at 2, earned over $650K, never turfed; dam lost only start; 2 siblings tried grass to no avail; note last 2 wins came in the conditioned claimers; not seeing it.

Thomas Hill

Shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered; miss has the 2 races to draw from now but still must find a way to deal with arch rival on the direct outside; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory after failing as chalk.

Awakino Cat

The old Florida to New York angle worked just fine in last; pro has always had a penchant for finding the wire and race has a nice stalk and pounce style; place horse in the GP finale took a $20K claimer next out; major threat.

Hillswick

Gelding nosedived at the shore and got the money last time; he's put wins together in the past but must prove he can win on grass; runner has enough speed to lead or track and get it done; may need slightly softer to shine.

Cast a Doubt

Runner has natural speed and could show more with the blinks today; he was in some good barns out West and he has proven he can track and perform; decent move on the 2nd is a solid sign; expect much better effort. - Brian Mulligan

Race 3

Lightning Ron

Draws the fence for the slight stretchout after holding third money on the drop to this level last time; maybe the weight concession with the double bug named helps and there doesn't look to be a lot of early lick in here, but several of these have run faster of late; consider.

Shelby Dean

Runner up in 3 straight and 5 of his last 6 was beaten at odds on in his second local spin at the level; he has the positional foot to sit a good spot down inside here and though he's had his share of chances, a repeat of his last would put him in the mix at a much improved price today.

Ignatius

Failed to get to a couple of the money finishers who return here as well when making his first local start at a slightly shorter trip; lightly raced gelding gets a new pilot and maybe he goes better second time over the track, but he's got to improve several lengths off what he's run to threaten today.

Arch Avenger

425K yearling buy is in for his cheapest price yet after rushing to the top following a poor start and tiring in his local debut run off the freshening; colt ran big 2 back in Florida and if he's able to get back to that one in here they will all be running for second money; with a clean run for a sharp second back from the break outfit, he's the one they'll have to beat.

Fictionalcharacter

Works aren't much for this statebred gelding's unveiling but he does go for an outfit that's profitable with its debut runners; sire gets 13% winners from his firsters but both of the dam's wins came on the green; he's kin to 4 winners including 102K earner Raffie's Choice whose 5 wins including 4 going long on the main track.

Sampson County

Beaten odds on chalk gives the level another shot after being claimed by a barn that does well with this type right back; maybe he's better second back from the break and he does own some back numbers that would make him rather tough if repeated here; concern is that he's had plenty of chances and that local return try was weak, but he has a right to be better with that one behind him; must be considered.

Seldom Seen Slim

Had little to offer in his turf debut late last month and now he'll return to dirt for a barn that excels with that type; sophomore drops in half in claiming price to his lowest level and he's earned ok numbers on the dirt in the past; a top pilot sticks with him and the outside drawn should help him sit an outside tracking trip in a field without a lot of early foot; giving him the nod to beat them home today. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Sushan

Main Track Only entry exits a key race defeating the show and 4th-place finishers from last; they posted 69-46 Beyer speed figures in next-out MTH-PIM-MSW wins; steps up in class off losses vs. Florida breds and vs. MTH runners; the 3-back winner and show finisher Beyered 85-69 in next-out MTH-optional-claiming and GP-MSW wins; D' Kennesaw Cat owns the best dirt credentials in ths field.

Good Catholic Girl

Sire is 3-for-59 with 1st-turf starters; 21-for-146 with debut runners; gives away experience to each rival; is out of a 1-for-8 dam (13K) who went 2-0-0-0 on grass; she broke her maiden at 1M and 1-16th in her 7th start; she produced 4 winners from 5 other foals to race (top earner-118K-Alvito 4-for-35); 2 foals to race on turf went 0-for-10 combined.

Skipping

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when last seen as a 2-year-old; sire is 7-for-44 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-0-0-0 grass dam who produced 3 grass winners from 7 other foals to race on the turf including 430K-turfer Meribel (6-for-25); strong-win angles: 1st Lasix, 1st time in the Clement barn and 1st turf; the pick.

Orient Harbor

Was outfinished in latest for the exacta but it was her best finish ever using 1st blinkers and likely needs a well-timed ride to turn the tables to graduate here; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 78-73 in next-out MTH-BEL MSW wins.

Southbound Swinger

The Beyer improved 2nd-time out 1st-turf but she finished behind this same bunch suggesting she wants longer races than 6F; the debut winner Beyered 72 when finishing 2nd next out in a CD-allowance; have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Pedal Princess

Debut was in a key race as the 4th and 10th-place finishers Beyered 58-48 in-next-out MTH-25K-CT-10K-maiden-claiming wins; was bet hard 1st-time out but seems to be shooting high here; trainer is sizzling at MTH but began BEL 1-for-11.

Street Trick

She is another who seemingly wants more than 6F but remains sprinting after troubled; her field-best Beyer speed figure was posted at 7F on BEL Widener turf; today she is slated to race on the Inner Turf; the 2-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a BEL-MSW with a 78 Beyer; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 74 in her next-out GP-MSW win.

Quinciana

Just 1 race to her career where she was screaming out for more distance but remains at 6F; new rider means a 5-pound weight positive swing off the loss to D' Kennesaw Cat; some runners leap forward dramatically 2nd-time out; has several strong improvement angles working for this.

D' Kennesaw Cat

Beat a bunch of these in last when sent to the lead then held on well despite a 7-week absence; great sign that it was 1st turf; the 2-back winner took her next 2 PRX alw. races with 84-82 Beyers; she beat the show runner who Beyered 71-67 in 2 next-out wins (40K-maiden claimer and 16K claiming); high-percentage turf-sprint barn has the one to catch and beat.

Place Card

Favored in her 1st turf race but had a troubled trip again; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 70 in a next-out CD-MSW win; hot-BEL barn is capable with long-layoff runners and going 1st-time Johnny V helps the confidence level; looms a logical contender for win honors. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Myfriendthebird

Been given time since dull turf debut; dam's lone win came on grass; several multiple race winners in the family; several also won on grass including Grade 3 winner 4 for 4 turf racer Incurable Optimist; needs a turn around. place horse in last took a MSW in next and 8th finisher took a maiden $15K claimer;

Sweetdreamsaboutme

Miss was just a brief threat; stakes winning 7 for 32 dam earned nearly $135K, won 4 times on grass; 3 of 4 siblings won; top kin Dreamin of Victory won on grass, banked nearly $300K; must display more.

Devious Maddy

Nice try in last but not thrilled with the defeats for a tag; there are a pair of 4-time turf winners in the family; a couple of drills since last out; top last-race Beyer in the pocket; could very well be a good thing in an ordinary race.

Today Not Tommorow

She has failed vs. much softer; the sibling that tried grass was out of the money in only turf out; not sold on chances.

Piccolo Flats

Rosario got a chance to figure her out; dam was 0 for 7; 4 of 5 siblings won; none tried turf; off poorly twice and was getting out in the March race; apparently not much of a work horse; could be a threat with slight improvement.

Shades of Indygo

Indygo Shiner 4 for 63 with first-time turfers; sire won at 2, took a Grade 3, won twice on grass, banked nearly $450K; dam's lone win was a dirt route; all 3 siblings won; one cashed once on grass, one banked over $200K; another slice?

Fire Ship

Colonel John 3 for 25 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2, took multiple Grade 1s, won only turf race, banked over $1.7 million; 3 for 13 dam earned over $100K, never turfed; 3 of 4 siblings won; all tried grass to no avail; rider has had success for this barn.

La Dama de Hierro

Miss may not be the happiest camper; note she was hard to load in the last pair; 7th and 9th finishers in last took $40K maiden claimers next out; there is a double turf winner in the family; nice blowout on the 8th; expect better effort. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Mighty Ian

Has to avoid the Gotham News speed duel while Ender Knievel is here to add to the pace and they all figure to have Groomedforvictory breathing down their necks from the bell; on paper does not get an easy lead here which is what he wants; has been working well for an icy BEL jockey-trainer combo (2-for-29 since 2013).

Beautyinthepulpit

Gets the right setup with 3 or 4 of these in need of the lead to succeed; forgive the 2-back turf debut loss he is clearly best on dirt; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 99 in a next-out 125K-stakes win; the February winner captured his next 2 starts including a 200K stakes with 97-95 speed figures.

Abraham

Hopes the 2nd start off the bench is enough to make up 9 lengths on Mighty Ian; gets a lot of pace help here as Gothan News is back in and Ender Knievel could make things very hot on the frontend; both wins on sloppy race tracks; if he gets it wet it moves him way up.

Ender Knievel

Big gate speed for a 26%-winning long-layoff trainer; has to outbreak Mighty Ian-Gothan News then hold off the closers; the show and 6th-place finishers from last posted 96-95 Beyer speed figures in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins; beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 105 in 2 next-out wins including a 147K stakes.

Groomedforvictory

Dangerous because he can stalk the speed like last which is essential in a race top heavy with gate speed; is a neck away from being 3-for-4 since the Feb. claim and has been dominant on wet tracks lately; field-best 105 Beyer was posted February, 2011, in a GP 1 dirt-OPC event; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 92 in a next-out BEL alw. win; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL alw. with an 89; seeing the win rider land on Touchofstarquality doesn't help the confidence level but still seems the one to beat.

Touchofstarquality

Plenty of time between races so not concerned off the 57-day absence for this; gets a good setup closing into a hot pace; exits a winning-key race defeating the runner-up and 5th-place finishers; they Beyered 87-77 in next-out BEL-allowance and MTH-OPC wins; a lot of upside off most recent win and keeps the win rider who seemingly had anoher option here; debut win on BEL dirt when beating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 87 in a next-out SAR-MSW win; the pick.

Gotham News

Lacked stamina vs. similar rivals when outdueled by Mighty Ian who is back for this; rallied 1st time in the states so was a little surprised he went right to the front in last; began career 2-for-2 on synthetic surfaces where he seems more at home.

Herbal Prospector

Is drawn outside of the main speed which compromises his chances of a repeat gate-to-wire score; he does rate well and might be best suited to stalk all of the inside speed; highweight gives 2-4 pounds to each rival; the workout for his 1st BEL start was not very inspiring; prefer others. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Awesome Heart

From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, his latest race was one of his better performances, but still feel that this group of New York-bred N1X rivals is going to prove to be too tough for him to tackle; looking toward others.

Mobridge

He ran pretty well off of a layoff in his latest outing and he didn't finish far behind today's rival Tapitation in that contest; he's eligible to be ready for better while making just his second start as a 4-year-old and going to look for him to be in the mix through the final furlong.

Ziggy the Great

It's interesting to see the wagering support he's attracted in his first three starts but he's going to need to step it up over those performances to have a chance at the top spot against this solid group of NY-bred N1X allowance rivals.

Analysis

He scored at a nice price in his first start for this barn in his latest outing, and it doesn't hurt to see John V. stick with him in his first attempt against winners; however, he's obviously facing a much tougher task this time around; Velazquez has won with 3 of 6 mounts for this barn in 2014.

Tapitation

He's yet to run a bad race and he was a sharp runner-up finisher in his turf debut in his latest outing while acting like he's still trying to figure things out; 230k purchase is out of a G3 winning dam who won 4 of 14 starts for 192k, including 2 of 7 turf starts for 129k, and his best races are plenty eligible to be in front of him.

Point Roll

He has every right to prove to be the one to deny in this spot while going out for a barn that is having a strong meeting and he's out of a dam who won 4 of 16 turf starts for 102k, and he's a 1/2 to East of Danzig (4-26, 177k over turf); Rosario has won with 6 of 18 (33%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Here Comes Tommy

His best race is fast enough to get him into the mix against these and he looks like he can prove to be a player in this spot whether this race is run over turf or the main track; however, it's tough to back him for the top spot with any confidence when looking at his 20-1-7-3 race record.

Spinning for Home

Something got into him when making it look easy against seven rivals in breaking his maiden in his latest outing but it remains to be seen if he can perform at that level racing over turf; leaning toward others, but going to upgrade his chances if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Irish Jade

He has a little bit of turf in his pedigree and he ran well in a few of his starts to close out his 3-year-old season, but he's clearly going to need to step it up over what he's shown in his two starts as a 4-year-old to have a say in the outcome.

Balderdash

Since putting together a few decent efforts to begin his career, he's kind of struggled in his attempts against winners, and he'll have to produce his sharpest performance to date to threaten the top contenders in this one; his dam was a stakes winner while winning 5 of 18 turf starts for 238k.

Uncle Mitcho

He was on top of his game when last seen, but he's entering this race off of a long layoff, and he doesn't sport the winningest profile after 15 starts; he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics, but looking in another direction for the top spot.

Cincinnati Kid

There was a time when he would have had a live look to him in a spot like this, but when looking at what he did in his two starts last year after being returned from a long layoff, it's tough to build a favorable case in his direction.

Birchwood Road

He's clearly capable of a better effort than what he showed up with in his latest start and maybe he simply needed that race while making his first start back from a layoff; that said, it's probably a good idea to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Fleet First

His first two starts wearing blinkers were decent performances and perhaps he just didn't care for the feel of turf beneath him in his latest outing; there is some solid dirt form lined up in here, so an improved performance is required, but this lightly raced runner has at least mild appeal.

Mark Twain

He's run well in his last two dirt starts, and even though he benefited from a favorable early pace scenario, his one start over the main track here was a strong runner-up finish; this colt is a 1/2 to Wild Grace (2-6, 104k, both wins over turf).

Saturday Appeal

He steps up with a solid performance from time-to-time, but this looks like it can prove to be a tough spot for him to land in, and he's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his two most recent races; looking toward others. - Brian Pochman