Belmont: Closer Looks for June 12, 2014

Race 2

Josie's Prospect

Half-sister to minor stakes placed Nun on the Run (12-33, 148k over turf) and multiple stakes placed Good Prospect (7-41, 255k over turf) looks like a strong fit against competition of this caliber, even if she is entering this race off of a long layoff; note that this barn has been doing some of their better work with turf strarters lately.

Aviendra

This will be her first start in the maiden claiming ranks, and she showed a little something in three starts over turf as a 2-year-old; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 12/13 going 6f vs. 50k OPC's with a 64 Beyer, and third-finisher won next out at Aqu on 12/4 going 6f vs. 25k MCL's with a 51 Beyer.

Outer Orbit

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 11 starts for 94k, and she didn't make a start over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Galaxy Express (4-33, 126k, including 1 of 11 turf starts for 48k); not sure if the top spot is quite within her reach, but looking at this as being a favorable spot for her first turf test.

Dulhan

She's been outrun at every point of call in her first two starts, and she's obviously going to need to produce a much improved performance in order to have a say in the outcome; she looks like more of an outsider.

Zafiro Azul

It would have been nice to have seen her show more in her most recent start while making her first start back from a layoff, but this miss showed a little late life in her career debut over turf, and this is only her third turf attempt.

Kevin's Steel

She has some turf in her pedigree, and even though she's going to need to improve over her recent form, she does appear to be heading in the right direction for her third start back from a layoff, and her best effort can get her into the mix against these.

Nanoon

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from 13 starts, including seven turf starts; this miss is a 1/2 to Front (5-10, 232k over turf); 1 1/16m can be tough on a firster.

Lucky Vida

Lightly raced 5-year-old enters this race off of a long layoff and it isn't like her form was all that strong prior to taking the time off; runner up from latest won next out here on 6/30 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 20k MCL's with a 61 Beyer.

Sweetest Peach

From 15 career starts, including nine over turf, she hasn't recorded a top-three finish, and there isn't anything in her recent form to suggest that she's about to show up with a competitive performance against these.

Race and Shine

When looking at what she did in her two starts over turf as a 2-year-old, it's probably a pretty good idea to take her chances seriously against these, and she's out of a dam who won 3 of 12 turf starts for 90k; like to see that she has a couple of sharp looking recent workouts in tow.

Regifting

She's another in here who can benefit from dropping in with maiden claimers for the first time, but she wasn't helped by drawing the outside post going 1 1/16m over the inner; runner up from latest won next out here on 6/6 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 67 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Shot to Win

He's back in with statebreds after fading from his pace efforts in his first crack with winners; gelding looked good wiring maidens on the drop 2 back and the figures to be firing from the bell while fresh in this spot; don't know that he's as quick early as his main pace foe who draws on the outside and he hasn't done so well in chase mode.

Thnxtomyuncle

Took him 12 cracks to break his maiden here late last summer and was in against winners for the initial time in his turf debut last month; barn has had a rough stand but the new pilot named does know this guy pretty well and he did work ok here last weekend; maybe he moves forward to contend for a share.

Double Gold

Caught a wet track in his first crack at the level and he didn't have much to offer in that troubled run; gelding did run big in that career best Beyer run when in against tougher 2 back and when right he is quick enough to secure a spot up close from the bell; worth a look.

Sidearm

Runner up in 3 straight was pretty good making his return from the freshening in his first crack against older rivals and now he'll return in a week; he's settled for 9 minor awards since breaking his maiden first time out but that last one was pretty good and Castellano sticks with him; contender.

Midnight Missile

Beat open starter allowance foes over the track last month and now he'll get back in with statebreds; gelding hasn't run particularly fast and his interim breezes are rather slow; maybe he has a little more to offer late at this reduced trip and can get in the mix for a share.

Station Chief

Ran well in each of his first 2 races before backing out of it quickly in his turf debut; colt moves to the outside slot for this, but he may well be able to use his lick to clear this bunch and if he does he could prove pretty tough to run down; working well since his last, he's the one they'll have to catch. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Wanganui

Jumper tries the flat in his second start back from a long break; he ran into a pretty good one while debut over this course a few years back and it's tough to deny his stamina as he's used hurdling at much longer trips than he'll try in this spot; maybe he's better with the return try behind him, but it doesn't hurt to get a tour of a turf course before getting back in with jumpers upstate down the line.

Hines

Late runner adds the hood for another crack at the local trip after making a solid late run as the chalk, failing to get to a couple of these; barn's top pilot sticks and maybe this guy will show enough early interest to secure a decent spot with the move down inside; contender.

Wing Foot

Sat close early in his Keeneland debut over a course with some give in it but ran into some trouble and was never able to recover in that shorter heat; he's been working fine at his Fair Hill base for a barn that excels with its returnees and the added trip really figures to play into his favor; dam was a multiple turf winner who dropped a handful of overseas winners including G1 SW and 1.1 million earner Lucarno; with Castellano getting aboard we'll give him the nod to move forward and beat these home.

Heyaarat

Tries the lawn for the first time while stretching out after proving no match for the winner who returned to finish second in a Belmont Stakes undercard stake last weekend; 1.65 million yearling buy returned from his last to work well and his sire gets 9% winners from his initial turf starters; G1 SW dam was a G3 SW turfer and 1 million earner and this guy is her first foal to race.

Sheldon

Took a good step forward second time in shades to get second money at this trip and level in his local return; colt doesn't have any early lick and that often can pose trip problems, especially in a field without a defined pace scenario; maybe for a minor award but prefer to side with others on the win end.

Alajmal

He's another jumper with flat experience and he'll be making his first start of the season in this spot; he is a G1 SW hurdler but none of his turf routes was anything special and he's likely just tuning up for the Spa season as well; backing others for the money spots.

Trecastle

Fresh colt cuts back to 10 panels after running on late in the second out marathon try in Florida; barn does do so well off this type of break and 2 of today's foes have finished in front of this guy already, but his dam was a G2 SP, G3 SW router and she dropped several solid turfers including multiple G1 SP, G3 SW turf router and 622K earner Karen's Caper; eligible for better.

Knight of Valor

He's run ok in each of his turf starts and he was caught in a wide spot while making his local debut last time out; colt gets a switch to a top local pilot for this and he is kin to a couple of SW turfers including G1 SP, G2 SW and 866K earner Mr. Commons so wouldn't be surprised to see a better try out of him in his second start over these weeds.

Summer Cove

Makes her first start off the claim by a barn that hasn't had any recent luck with this type; 350K yearling buy wasn't bad on the lawn this winter in Florida so maybe he deserves another shot over it, but there's a reason his prior outfit gave up on him after just a few starts; watching him here.

Boss Man

Mott colt ran pretty well in his local return at this trip and level off the freshening last month and a top pilot sticks with him; like his sire, this gelding likes the route and he has a right to be tighter with that last one behind him; gelding's tactical foot should have him in a great spot from the bell and that should give him first run over the latecomers; career best number came over the course in the fall; he's had his chances, but think they'll have him to beat.

This Guy Is Blue

Wide trip hurt him behind some of these while making his first start back from the break in a moderate paced heat at the level; this guy is kin to Lotta Kim, a SW router who is best known as the dam of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra; he's had trip issues in his recent starts in full fields so maybe he really hasn't had a shot to show what he's capable of doing right now, but it's tough to imagine a clean trip is all this guy needs to turn the tables today; have to look elsewhere.

Macagone

Outside drawn statebred gets back in with open company runners after holding third money in his return from the break at a shorter trip last month; he is lightly raced and his turf winning dam did drop a turf winner, but he won't have it easy from out here.

Aslan

MTO will give 10 panels a shot after coming up well short in his wet track return from 9 months on the shelf; pedigree says he should like some more ground, though it also suggested he'd eat up the slop that defeated him in the comebacker; he didn't run so fast sprinting last summer so don't know that he has all that much ability, but he does have a right to be better than he was last time if the rains wash this off. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Kleptocrat

Newcomer hails from Performing Magic who won a G2 and 723K overall; his offspring have scored in 7 out of 65 debuts; the dam involved never raced; among the winning siblings is 37K earner Magic Q.G.; a long set of breezes at five-eighths to consider.

Loomin' Lori Lou

Unlucky lass has run into lengthy winners in every race; has performed well over all NYRA surfaces and should be an immediate pace factor today, especially with the descent from special weights; bound to be a very short price though.

Glenbrook

Failed to fire in her maiden voyage against a notch below; her sire was a graded stakes sprinter who captured 1.36 million; the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 22K earner Ballythunder; can earn a share at healthy odds.

Madison V.

Did not fire in her turf debut at the shore; sole effort at Belmont was last season and it was a respectable showing; best Beyer by far was earned over a wet-fast surface; may need that type of footing in order to pull off the upset this afternoon.

Kicken Livi

Adds blinkers after failing to run straight and true in her debut last summer upstate; her sire won a G1 and 971K while the dam was without a tally in 4 attempts; winning siblings include 139K earner Purely Majestic.

Sweethots

May be the only one in this field who can contest the early issue with Loomin' Lori Lou; has flashed decent prompting speed since arriving in New York and actually looks nicely positioned against this group; can prove to be the right value play.

Fast Z

Beginner was sired by Fast Draw who won 2 of 21 attempts and 58K; progeny of that runner have been successful in 4 of 61 debuts; the dam never raced; among the winning siblings is 6K earner Madelines Doll.

Miss Electronica

Upgraded in the latest half-mile drill; her sire won a G1 and 1.22 million overall; descendants of Roman Ruler are 36 for 277 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 6 of 23 and 221K; winning sibs include 170K earner Coco Ecolo; respect. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Road Agent

Can't be thrilled with the local slate; he has the speed to flee the rail but may have to be hard used and there are others with designs on the top; 4/2 show horse cashed next out took a $50K starter next out, then was 2nd twice at this very level; life and death for last 2 wins; needs very best.

Mad Props

Never simple to beat winners right back but he pulled it off and was inching away late; place horse in last cashed next out in a $16K N2L and was claimed; note the solid middle move he used to graduate; has to improve to turn the hat trick.

Matt and Jesse

Cashed in the $50K starter a few back but against only 4 rivals; far from a win machine with nearly 3 times as many slices as wins; note he lost ground in the drive in the last 3 efforts; passing.

Magnificent Moon

Drew off in last but some may not have cared for the sealed sloppy strip; note he was also away for all of 2013; tougher crew here after beating the conditioned claimers in last; would be careful here.

Sinorice

Off rail here, like the way he was getting to the winner; winner 11/4 last year cashed twice since, the last in a $40K claimer with a 92 Beyer; another slice.

Apex

Been given time since game victory in the mud; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta half the time; proven locally, apparently not much of a work horse but last race came back live; the place horse took an N1X next out; 4th finishers beat $12.5K claimers next out and 5th finisher took a $40K optional; repeat well within the realm.

Real Estate Rich

Jacobson, who has a great eye for a claim, thought enough of this runner to take him back; that speaks volumes; gelding is out to snap seconditis; but note he was nearly 5 clear in last; May 3 winner clicked right back last Saturday in a $62.5K optional with a 94 Beyer; due to punch it in. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Always Home

She enters this race off of back-to-back wins, but she is making her first start of 2014; the long layoff is a concern, but for the most part, her turf starts for this barn have been solid, and she's been at her best over the Belmont Park turf.

Life's a Stage

Late running type is vulnerable to a slow early pace but she's run well in four of her last five starts and she fits right in with these; at the very least, she's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

The Lady Says Yes

She hasn't run a bad race to date and she shows up for one of the strongest turf outfits in the country; she's run well fresh many times and going to look for her to be ready to give a good account of herself in her 4-year-old racing debut; Castellano has won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Chrysolite

A favorable early pace scenario had something to do with it, but she ran well in her second turf attempt in her latest outing, and she commands some respect in her first start against winners off of that performance; this barn has been live at this meeting and Ortiz has won with 3 of 8 (38%) mounts for them.

Very Precious

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 10 starts for 34k, and she didn't make a turf start; can't ignore the impact that her early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up, but she must produce a stronger performance in her turf debut if she has her eyes on the top prize.

Nonnie Connie

She showed up with one of the strongest performances of her career while making her first start for this barn in her latest outing and like the idea of getting her back over turf; if her two most recent workouts are any indication, she might be ready for a top try.

Milkyyourway

Andromeda's Hero has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but this mare has shown enough in her two most recent races, both over turf, to be given the look of a top contender against these; she's a threat regardless of the surface that this race is run over.

Easy Living

She's two-for-two in the quality start department to begin her career and she really ran well in her well backed career debut when coming up just short going seven furlongs over the Gulfstream Park turf course; she's a 1/2 to stakes winner Harbor Mist (5-22, 262k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 32k); Rosario has won with 6 of 18 (33%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

G Note

Like to see the improvement she's shown in her two most recent races since being placed back over turf and she's run well in those starts while facing a couple of today's rivals; Alvarado gets live calls from this barn and he seems to know how to get the most out of this miss. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Start Jumping

Although his overall Beyers match up extremely well with the field, he is purely a closer and this race seems to lack a contested pace; has won under this impost before but the most recent a.m. breeze was lacking; mixed signals for this fairly consistent rallier.

Bemata

Fine score at the course and distance less than a month ago and the trainer continues to win at a solid rate; the gelding has upped his game since the claim late last year and the breeze pattern upstate has apparently maintained his edge; encore performance not out of the question.

Ithastobegeorge

Only 2 lifetime victories for this runner who has failed twice previously at this tricky distance; he has not come close this year to the performance levels of last season but switches to Rosario who has been riding lights out; mixed signals for this runner whose style mirrors most of the field.

Bet the Power

Lost to Dighton last time out but might have been compromised by the inside path; there has been marked improvement to the workout regimen during the last few weeks and perhaps that can be the catalyst for a sudden upgrade; should offer much better odds than in the last outing.

Dighton

Seven furlongs is simply not his best distance so the latest effort, when burdened with the extreme outpost, is not a true indicator of his ability; likes this course and he was probably best in the run 3 back if not for rallying far too wide; looks like a comfortable fit today, rain or shine.

Piquant

Exacta recommendation for this gelding who turned in a fine performance here last month when trying a one-turn mile for the first known time; latest placing at his home track of Parx was sharp as well where the second quarter mile fraction of that race was much faster than the first; dangerous if unchallenged in the early stages.

Quick Money

A veteran sprinter over all surfaces, this gelding should be able to launch a strong middle move once again; returned some nice dividends for the new connections only 5 days ago and the trainer has done well with quick turnarounds such as this; logical contender regardless of soil condition.

Johannesburg Smile

Did not lose by much at all in that March getaway race when involved in a traffic jam; solid statebred has performed well against open company before although he makes his belated debut at this precise distance; maintains apprentice Rice who has a fine record for these connections. - Jim Kachulis

Race 9

Hampden Fiveone

Stretches back out with dull form in previous route races; was dueled into defeat in his October grass debut and today is the 1st time back on the green since then; the runner-up finisher from that event posted a 72 Beyer speed figure in a next-out CD-MSW win; view as a pace presence for part.

Four Directions

Sire is 40-for-316 with 1st-turf starters; 1-for-7 dam (12K) did not race on grass; her other foal to race is 0-for-1 turfer Peachy Baby; the winner from last Beyered 77 in a repeat BEL allowance win; has been screaming out for more distance and gets it here; 10%-winning 1st turf barn and a 1-for-14 BEL-jockey-trainer combo are the concerns.

Readyheartandsoul

Sire is 1-for-24 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-3 grass dam (29K); her other foal to race is 0-for-3 turfer Soul Opposition; his 2 sprints do not give you the impression that stretching out will help as he has to get by Four Directions who follows him here for this.

Sole Train

Toss latest on dirt which represents a career-low Beyer; he is trying to remember his field-best 71 speed figure posted in January on GP grass when defeated by the winner who repeated in a Grade 3 stakes with a 90 speed figure; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 86 in a next-out BEL-MSW win; the 3-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a BEL-MSW with an 82 speed figure; is the one to beat.

Casa Cavallo

Defeated 2 runners in 3 races combined finishing last in his grass debut; 1st Lasix did not help the cause in last for a 1-for-28 dirt-to-turf trainer since 2013; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 69 in a next-out AQU-MSW win; would be a shocker.

Dowse's Beach

Projects to chase Chasintheblues from the gate then get 1st run on the closers; superb-fresh trainer hopes he can finish better than in the 2 pre-rest races where he was in contention but could not out punch his rivals in deep stretch; exits a best-last-ace Beyer speed figure with an improving-career pattern; good sign a high-percentage NY rider follows him here off the bench for this; the pick.

Vischer Ferry

The winner, runner-up and 6th-place finishers from last all won next out with 97-84-83 Beyers taking BEL-PRX-MSW and BEL allowance wins next out; sire is 12-for-104 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 3-0-1-0 grass dam (7K); her other foal to race is 0-for-3 turfer Luna Charm (11K).

Dreamin of Betty

Bet hard when making his 1st start vs New York breds but showed nothing again; 54 days since that dull effort where he lost ground from the 1st call to the finish while in his career-best effort he passed a few; needs a serious wakeup call to make amends.

Chasintheblues

Projects as the one to catch; 0-for-4 trainer going with the blinkers-on angle since 2013; his turf-sprint form is pretty good but tired at 1 Mile on the green last fall at AQU so hanging on late is the biggest obstacle to overcome.

Shimba

Sire is 34-for-294 with 1st-turf starters; 63-for-449 with 1st-time starters; is out of an unraced dam who produced 5 winners from 5 other foals to race including stakes-winner Law Enforcement (6-for-30, 458K); 2 of 4 foals to race on grass are turf winners including 2-for-10 grasser Zambezi Warrior (32K); does not meet a strong field at 1st asking; contender. - Art Gropper