Belmont: Closer Looks for June 11, 2014

Race 1

Pretty Like Me

She took a big step forward in her second start when blinkers were added and she could be sitting on a peak effort here; horse that finished third came back to win a state bred $40K maiden claimer with a 45 Beyer Speed Figure here May 3; rail could be an issue but she comes out of a live barn that has solid numbers with horses coming back in this time period; contender.

Miz Sweet

Debuts for Baker who the past five years has a 10 percent strike rate with first-time starters; sire 3/22 (14%) with first timers; dam won 3 times and earned $26K; 2 of 4 sibs are winners including 6-time Sweet Azarel who won her debut at 2; works just average but so is the field she is facing; not out of the question.

Glass Zealing

Blinkers go on following a dull debut where she never really got involved after breaking a few steps slow in a quickly-run race won by Pearls for Girls who came back to win a first-level allowance race for state breds; first foal out of a mare that won 10 races and earned $286K should have some upside to her; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Penella

She's picked up slices in three of her four starts and the only time she wasn't part of the tri she was stretching out for the first time; claimed out of her latest and the past five years Divitto is 3/12 running back newly claimed horses; Castellano attracted; consider for the exotics.

The Lost Tigress

Second from Baker received a lot of support when she debuted in a key race last year but she faded after showing some early interest; blinkers and Lasix are being added for her second start and the past five years Baker has a 17 percent strike rate with maidens making thier second start following a layoff of 180 days or more; dam's lone win came on turf; only sib won three routes; nice set of works leading up to her return; the pick.

All Luv Me

Her Beyer Speed Figure regressed in her latest but it was a good effort as she broke well enough from the rail but was eased back into a stalking position and then made a strong move around the turn while going four wide; she should be able to fall into a stalking position from this post or it is possible she'll be the one they have to catch; big shot.

Quit Smokin

She ran into a couple of decent fillies in her two starts at two; winner of her debut won her next start and recently won a $50K stakes at Finger Lakes; winner of her second won her next two and has earned $242K ; the last two horses Hertier brought back from a layoff of a year or more both finished third; homebred is the first foal out of a mare that didn't win in 6 starts; bullets fired in her last two works on the training track; contentions runs deep.-Randy Goulding

Race 3

Surfspun

He was a game winner in his latest and the horse that finished third came back to win a $40K maiden claimer with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure; it looks like he wants to be involved right from the start and he is going to have to deal with Cool Cat Tale who is breaking right next to him; it's never easy facing winners the first time and being the inside horse in the likely duel isn't going to help his chances; prefer others.

Cool Cat Tale

He easily owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and with just a couple of starts behind him he should have plenty of upside potential; claimed out of his latest and the past five years Persaud has a 10 percent strike rate running them back the first time; best of 3 sibs to race is $150K Brite Betty who won four sprints; first time with winners but he could be dangerous if he can get the jump on Surfspun; contender.

Sideways Vision

Lone win came when he controlled a 1 1/16 miles state bred race right from the start but he rallied to finish second when he debut at this distance at Saratoga last year so he can sprint; first time for a tag and the past five years Levine has a 12 percent strike rate with horses coming back in this time period that were taking the plunge; consider for the bottom half of the exotics.

Three for Me

That was an improved effort in his latest and he was trying turf for the first time; he couldn't keep up when he tried $75K optional state breds two back but he's made some kind of impact in his other races and he shouldn't mind being back on the main track; he will need a Beyer boost to contend here, though; passing.

Patty and Nooche

Back to dirt following a dull effort in his first try on the lawn; horse that won his race two back just missed in the $100K Sir Barton and then finished third in the $150K Easy Goer on Belmont day; he certainly will appreciate the substantially easier company and the past five years Schettino is 18 percent with horses running for a tag the first time; big shot.

Grand Arrival

Another one taking the plunge and the past five years Zito has a 24 percent strike rate with horses running for a claiming price for the first time; horse that won his latest had the lead at the top of the stretch in the Easy Goer but tired to finish fourth; this guy figures to move forward in his second start back following a short layoff and he's had two solid works since he ran; he should also get a nice stalking trip from his outside post; the pick.-Randy Goulding

Race 4

Lane Allen

Showed good speed in the slop before fading first out last month and now he'll try the green for a barn that doesn't do so well on the surface switch; gelding is by a sire who get 10% winners from his first time turfers and the dam was a G3 SW turfer overseas; he's kin to 2 turf winners including G2 SP, SW turfer and 211K earner True Cause so he should like this stuff.

Momma's Mark

Statebred is offered for a tag while making his second start of the year while having little impact in his return run; gray did run ok over the local lawn as a juvenile and he doesn't face many with established turf form in this heat; barn hasn't done so well here, but the price should again be right and a top pilot sticks with him today.

Perfect American

Didn't have much of an impact late in any of his 3 local main track starts and now this winless barn will move him to the infield while switching back to a pilot who is winless at the stand; his sire gets 18% winners from his initial turfers and the winless dam tried the green once prior to dropping foal who were a combined 0 for 5 over the stuff.

Hard Fast Cash

First part of the entry sat a good spot in his local return from time off but couldn't go on late and should appreciate the cut back in his surface debut; he ran into a slew of next out winners while chasing MSWs over the inner this winter and his sire does get 10% winners from his initial surface starters; unraced dam dropped Nashi, a 252K earner and 11 time sprint winner who hit the board twice without winning in 4 turf starts.

Bold Runner

Showed some early foot before fading at 82-1 while trying this footing in his initial route attempt a couple of weeks back; he should be better on the cut back with the experience behind him, but the dam hasn't dropped any turf winners and this guy's dirt sprint efforts leave a lot to be desired.

Read the Mirage

Steps in with older while being offered for a tag for the first time in his turf debut for a barn that doesn't boast a lot of recent luck on the surface switch; fresh colt has shown some ability and he does catch a rather weak bunch; his sire gets about 10% winners from his initial turf starters and the dam was a 4 time turf winner who has dropped a winner over this footing; consider.

Delta Warrior

Ran into a pretty good one while sprinting in Florida the winter but had little to offer when shades were added in his return from the break in Jersey; maybe he's tighter with that one behind him and he will face claimers for the first time here but his sire is just 4 for 62 with his initial surface runners; dam's 2 wins came routing and she was off the board in her lone turf spin prior to dropping a foal who was 0 for 2 on the green.

Mach Seven

Hasn't been a threat again cheap claimers on the main track of late and now this low percentage outfit will look to put him on the lawn; his sire gets about 14% first time surface winners from his offspring and though his SP dam never tried the green her other foal to race won first time on the green so maybe this footing is what he wants; gets another new pilot.

Pep the Champ

Adds shades for his local debut run and the barn excels with the move; colt ran a big one for second money when in for a tag second out in Florida and maybe he was just in too tough in Maryland while chasing older for the first time; looks to have found a bunch that he can boss and figures to be the one to down.

Niki and Dylan

Barn boasts some recent luck with its first time turfers and is going pretty well with its limited local runners; ran ok when third in his first start on this circuit but his sire is just 2 for 39 with his first turfers; dam was a 3 time winner in South America who dropped several winners in the states including surface winner and 123K earner A Lady Called Max.

Hey Kid

Sire gets 12% winners from his first out runners but just 5% of his initial turf starters find the winner's circle; dam was winless from 3 starts, one of which came on the green and she dropped 2 winners who each lost their lone start on the footing; barn is going well here and is certainly capable of getting one ready to fire first time out.

Secret Ops

Outside drawn colt is in for a tag while trying the green for the initial time in his return from nearly 4 months on the shelf; sire gets 7% winners from his first time turfers and the dam was a multiple SP, 3 time winner who never tried the footing; dam dropped several winners including G2 SP, 199K earner Enumerate who won first time on the lawn; worth a look.

Gamble

AE removes the hood for his return to the green off the brief freshening; he didn't offer much in either of his turf starts last season and there's not a lot to suggest this longshot goes much better in here.

Political Farce

AE has had plenty of chances and now they'll look to give the lawn a shot; he's got solid early foot and it should make him prominent from the bell in this one for a barn that does ok on the surface switch; sire gets 10% winners from his first turfers and the dam did drop 2 grass winners.

Freight

AE tries to get in to make his first start of the year for a new outfit that does well with this type; he has experienced winning and owns several numbers that would put him right in the thick of this; must be considered if he goes.

Philip

Other half of the coupling is by sire who gets 8% first out winners and who is just 4 for 62 with his first time turfers; dam dropped 4 winners but the 2 who tried the green did not win over the footing; he's mired on the AE list and not likely to draw into this heat.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Jigsaw

Not only is it interesting to see that his one turf start was against maiden special weight competition, but it's it's also interesting to see this colt benefit from the services of Castellano after being claimed for 50k from his latest start; leaning toward others, but there are some positives in this direction.

In Speight Ofitall

6-year-old has a little bit of turf in his pedigree, but he hasn't been shy about settling for minor awards in his first 15 starts, and it would have been nice to have seen him show more when placed back over turf in his latest outing.

Tree Fire

Sire has won with 1 of 8 (13%) of his first-time starters and he's 3-for-19 (16%) with his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts, including three turf starts; this colt is a 1/2 to Start Up (2-13, 52k over turf); a few of his works look solid, but this is a demanding distance for a firster.

Brilliant Command

Late running type appears to be taking a well meant drop in class for a barn that has made a lot of right moves at this meeting; not going to be at all surprised if he's ready to deliver his sharpest performance to date.

Strueves Star

His best finish to date was earned racing over a muddy surface, something to consider if this race has to be moved to the main track, but it looks like he's going to need to improve over what he's shown in his three turf attempts to get the better of this bunch.

School Yard

He's run pretty well in three of his last four starts over turf and he's an early speed type who finds himself in a race where the early pace might be slow to develop; can't ignore the presence of Saez aboard another in here, but he loses nothing with a strong turf rider like Lezcano aboard.

Western Exchange

He took a step in the right direction at second asking while making his first start with Lasix, and this 3-year-old is certainly eligible to be ready for better while making his first start since early January; his lack of early speed might be a slight concern, but going to look for him to give a good account of himself against these.

Romans Paradise

His form has improved from his 2-year-old season, but feel that it's fair to wonder if he's at his best wearing blinkers; if he can perform the way he did two and three starts ago, he can have a say in the outcome.

Perfect Stormy

Like to see the effort he produced just two starts back, and he's by a strong turf sire and out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 7 of 13 turf starts for 531k; he has at least mild appeal while dropping out of the maiden special weight ranks for only the second time.

Classic Sense

Half-brother to Handsome Mike (3-27, 955k, including 1 of 8 turf starts for 85k) will likely find himself in a pretty soft spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, and if he can reproduce his latest performance, he can leave these behind to battle it out over the place prize; Castellano has won with 5 of 14 (36%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Race 6

Precious Franca

She has moved through her conditions nicely including a recent score at the course and distance via an inside trip (earning a personal best Beyer in the process); can earn a share now if breaking alertly and obtaining a dream inside run once again.

Lotsa Noodles

A newcomer to this main oval, she raced evenly in her 2014 debut on the grass; the owner/trainer has solid numbers in the turf-to-dirt category and Arroyo has multiple winning experience aboard this mare; still seems reliant on a strong early pace in order to have a say.

Voodoo Tales

Caught wide in her first start since mid-January, she ran into an above average group when negotiating this distance last month; reverts to the red-hot Castellano who was in the irons for that game placing 4 races back; looks like a very good placement at this starter allowance level; respect.

Wisdom of Oz

Still eligible for the weak n2l condition and seems out of her element today despite the clear-cut placing of a month ago; overall Beyers come up short on all angles and even the recent sharp blowout will likely prove insufficient; cannot vote for the top spot.

Coast of Sangria

Popular at the claim box and an 8-time winner; she has a perfect exacta record at this oval and has successfully handled various distances; only drawback is the failure thus far to win at seven-eighths; remains a viable candidate despite that shortcoming.

My Donna Jean

This lady is another turf-to-dirt possibility in this field; she ran a bold second the last time such a strategy was employed here last season; has limited experience at seven furlongs yet does own the best lifetime Beyer in the field; goes back to the handling of winning rider Ortiz.

Iratinelexburance

Held well in her last route assignment but faced only 3 opponents that day; she is a much better placement at the n3l level and is now confronting some runners who are multiple winners over the course; exacta streak may be in jeopardy therefore.

Bridget Moloney

Once a pure speed type, she has learned how to rate; gets a major weight concession from the field but has no history whatsoever at this trip; outside post can suit especially if a prolonged pace battle develops; needs properly timed moved by the apprentice in order to have a chance at the upset.-Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Bartiromo

Educated in the debut, improved on the stretch out in game style; place horse in last was over 3 clear, she has been given a little R and R upstate since Florida finale and the drills are ideally spaced; could see her sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip and note rider is 31% for this outfit in the last year; nice.

Dramatize

The race over the course can't hurt; hungry bug got a chance to figure her out in last but racer will have to find a way to turn the tables on the Metivier runner among others; needs very best.

Mr Rico Is Valid

Disco Rico about 9% with first-time turfers in a 113-runner sample; G3 winning sire won twice at 2, took 9 of 17, banked over $500K, never turfed; dam was unraced; all 6 siblings won, one cashed over $200K, several tried grass to no avail; sometimes those muddy efforts can be overly taxing.

Gondole

Been given time since fresh Lasix graduation party; he proved he can overcome a little adversity last time and the race came back okay as the 6th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer next out, 7th finisher beat $12.5K maiden sellers and the place horse was 2nd beaten 4 in an MSW spot; looms late factor if at all.

Tizallheart

Never simple to beat winners right back but she almost held up her end in last; and she was hung wide in the process; last top race Beyer in the pocket and although she needs help up front, there are a couple of sprinters going long in this cast; respect everything from Belmont Stakes winning trainer.

Lucky Nancy E.

It took her awhile to figure it out and now she has to prove she can win on turf; 4/17 show horse cashed next out in a $16K N2L spot, then beat $20K N3L foes; winner 4/17 took a $40K claimer in next, then ran out of the money; a slice may be the ceiling.

Lemon and Honey

Over 9 clear but some may not have cared for the sealed sloppy strip; lack of speed a concern and can't be too happy about her turf slate; Contessa tries to strike while the iron is hot and that has been a 21% ploy for him in the last year; try to get a good look at her on the track.

Dattts Da Boss

She has had a ton of chances to get that second win; she has more speed than she flashed in last but she has to prove she can win long; 4/17 winner repeated in a $40K optional, then was out of the money in a $200K stakes; capable barn due to get rolling.-Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Irish Score

She has shown good gate speed in the past but has never raced on the lead; projects to be one of the main speeds here with Miss Frost but woud be even more dangerous if she found herself loose on an easy lead; new rider is her 5th in as many races which is usually not a good-win angle.

Pink Poppy

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when defeating the runner-up and show finishers from last; they Beyered 78-73 in next-out BEL-MTH MSW wins; the impressive thing about both of her races is that she has had gate issues but still performed remarkably well; style suggests the added distance should suit her well; scary if she breaks well one day.

Whispering

Stretches back out to the GP-win distance but has lost position from stretch-to-finish in her 2 races with winners; the December-GP winner repeated in a TP-optional claimer with a 51 Beyer; reunites with a rider twice finishing off the board piloting her; would be a complete surprise.

Summer Solo

Her debut win looks better since the show runer Beyered 78-69 in 2 next-out GP wins a MSW and optional-claimer; gets the class test leaving New York breds to test open company for the 1st time; BEL-Stakes winning jockey-trainer combo saw her win at today's distance in the debut then improved both her tactical speed and Beyer for last; lots of upside.

Run of the River

Just one race and a victory for a trainer who is not known to win with 1sters; rallied like a nice one and not easy to win going this far at 1st asking; the runner-up and show finishers from last both Beyered 64 in next-out BEL-MSW 4th and 6th-place finishes.

Miss Frost

Speedster's bobbled-gate break proved costy as she was a non factor throughout; her best game is to make the lead then keep on going graduating last summer at today's distance on SAR green; newest rider is her 4th in as many races which is not a good-win angle.

Morethanawarning

5-0-0-0 vs. winners finishing far back in a key race 7 weeks ago; the winner and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 90-80 in next-out BEL-200K stakes and CD-allowance wins; 10%-winning fresh trainer does not add to the appeal; will be taking a wait and see approach.-Art Gropper