Belmont: Closer Looks for July 3, 2014

Race 1

Your Time Is Up

She was on a nice roll last winter and she could be coming up to a big effort in her first start of summer while making the third star to of her current form cycle; her inside post could present a problem with speed likely backing up to her but, it is encouraging to see Rosario accept the call and if he can work out a trip she could make some noise when it matters; contender.

Bridget Moloney

Looked like she was on her way when she won her first three starts as a 2-year-old last year but she stalled when she tried stakes company and her last win came in a $25K claimer; she couldn't catch her new stablemate Sweet Sway last week but the shape of this race should suit her style of running; the past five years Chatterpaul has an 11 percent strike rate with horses coming back in a week or less; she probalby isn't the winner but she could get up in time to be part of the exotics;

Sweet Sway

Looked good winning her latest but she had things her own way and that isn't going to happen here; claimed out of the race and the past five years her new trainer has a 14 percent strike rate running them back the first time; can see her bouncing coming back this soon after running such a big race following a lenghty layoff; prefer others.

Here's Zealicious

Looks like the one to beat with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure staring us in the face and Kazamias has solid numbers bringing them back in this time period; horse she beat came back to win a $25K optional race at Parx with a 79 Beyer; she has a good record on this circuit including a third behind multiple stakes winner Sunny Desert in the $73K Broadway last year; only time she ran over this surface was her first and last try going a middle distance; other speed in the field doesn't help her cause, but she's still the pick.

Manero

She's had two solid efforts since moving to Nevin's barn and she showed us a new side by winning a sprint for the first time in her career in her latest; she was also able to ease of what looked like a potential duel, which should help her here; ; the Beyer Speed Figure came in a bit light, but she seems to heading in the right direction and could get a nice trip from a stalking position; consider for the exotics.

Spinit to Winit

She's been away since she ran a dull race in her first route attempt May 3 and the past five years Kimmell has a 15 percent strike rate with horses returning between 61-180 days; she should appreciate the move back to a sprint and the shape of the race should suit her; she was part of the exacta in six-straight races before her failed route attempt so at the least she should be part of any exotics ticket.

Pearls for Girls

Second from Kimmell is going for the hat trick and though she controlled the tempo right from the start in her last two wins she showed an ability to rate earlier in her career; the step up in class is significant but she is lightly raced and appears to be heading in the right direction; her stablemate has more appeal but there are some things to like. - Randy Goulding

Race 2

Secured Position

Offspring of Patriot Act, who won 4 of 19 starts and 452K, have scored in 3 of 51 debuts; the dam won 3 of 30 and 161K; among the winning siblings is 82K earner Social Rebellion; latest gate breeze was upbeat.

Just Economics

Decent showing first time out at Delaware (no horses have run back from that event as of yet); the gelding's sire won a G1 and 905K while the dam scored in 7 of 50 appearances earning 310K; winning sibs include 59K earner Bazoom.

Unauthorized

Sired by G2 victor Proud Citizen who captured 638K and whose progeny have won 12 percent of their initial races; the dam lost her only attempt; among the winning siblings is 92K earner Ole's Miss.

Navy Blue

Very fine gate breeze turned in last week; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.5 million; descendants of Midshipman have won 2 of 3 initial starts; the dam won 6 of 39 and 184K; sib to 242K earner Saltamontes.

Persuasive Devil

This colt's sire won a G3 and 986K in total; offspring of Closing Argument are 38 for 246 as far as winning their first assignment; the dam won 2 of 8 attempts and 55K; winning siblings include 21K earner Papa Doc.

Midnight Nick

Congaree was a multiple G1 winner on the NYRA circuit and had lifetime earnings of 3.26 million; his progeny have won 8 percent of their debuts; the dam was without a tally in 5 tries; sib to 181K earner Midnight Billy.

Posse Man

The grey hails from G2 winner Posse who netted 662K and whose descendants have won 9 percent of their first efforts; the mom won 1 of 3 and 10K; among the winning sibs is 92K bankroller Catalonia.

Black Friday Rush

Steady breeze pattern for this son of G1 winner Any Given Saturday who amassed 1.08 million and whose progeny have won 20 out of 170 debuts; the dam never raced; winning siblings include 256K earner Moonlit Malibu.

Good Luck Gus

The sire in question won multiple G1s and 3.3 million; offspring of Lookin At Lucky are 4 for 10 in the first time victorious department; the dam lost her only outing; winning siblings include 10K earner Follow My Luck. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

La Verdad

Continues on a tear having won 8 of her last 9; yes, things got a little too close for comfort when she won the Crtical Eye here May 31 but that was at a mile and could be that's pushing things for her distance-wise; and the win looks all the better when you note runner-up Hot Stones came right back to win the Bed o' Roses here last week; back to sprinting and in vs. NY-breds who she dominates; just 1 thing you won't like: a very short price.

Clear Pasaj

Had a superb 2013 but you have to be a tad worried now; after all, she was so sharp last year but then came 10 months off and a very dull return try at DEL June 12; in her defense, not only was she dealing with a layoff but she caught slop AND she wasn't on her best behavior in the gate so maybe you can just view that as a 6f work; at least there's no layoff since, she's back to a track she loves with a smart work in tow and J.R. taking the call so it's far too early to give up on her.

Willet

Last seen whipping NY-breds in the Touch of Love on AQU's big track Dec. 6; hasn't run since but the last few years this is the type of vacation she's received after sa busy schedule; that being said, her last 2 tries off the bench weren't her best so today she deals with a layoff and a real, real tough rival in La Verdad; but her 'A' game can certainly give La Verdad some worries.

Miss Da Point

She's a pro - you don't win 9 times by accident; 2 big wins this spring at AQU show she's doing well but she was then no match for La Verdad in the Critical Eye, running 6th; in fact, the 2 times she ran into La Verdad she found that gal far too tough; could be that's the case again today and not only must she worry about La Verdad but the other 3 gals in here are pretty darn salty, too.

Risky Rachel

Good enough to beat Willet in the Union Avenue at SAR; trouble is, that was nearly 2 years ago; after that she lost to Willet here and was then gone nearly 15 months; came back with 2 big wins at TAM this winter so that alleviated worries about the layoff but she was then no match for La Verdad in March and no factor in a stakes at PRX May 24; back in vs. NY-breds with a nice recent work; certainly if she returns to her best form can make her scary, but that's no small 'if' after those last 2 outings, is it? - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Careful Choice

Pinballed at the break and she just never recovered; stakes placed 1 for 9 dam earned about $70K; 4 of 5 siblings won; top kin Miss Mary Pat was 3 for 5 as a juvenile, won over $100K; needs a rebound run.

Presto Magic

Breen great with this move; he is 13 for 44 or 30% the last 5 years with second shooting juveniles; bet like a good thing at Oceanport, she just got rolling too late; 14 for 26 dam won multiple stakes, didn't race at 2, earned over $425K; all 3 siblings won; 2 won at 2 including juvenile debut winner, 4-time stakes winner and near $250K earner Yes I'm Lucky; may like it here.

Cavorting

McLaughlin 17 for 154 or 11% the last 5 years with debuting juveniles and 36 others ran in the money; Bernardini about 13% with juvenile firsters in a 130-runner sample; sire didn't run at 2, won his 2nd career start with a 90 Beyer, took 3 Grade 1s and was 2nd in BC Classic on way to $3 million career; G2 winning dam took debut at 2, won 8 of 21, earned nearly $700K; the sibling that won once did so routing as older horse; her purchase price is higher than all of the other sale prices in this field combined.

Sweet Maya

Dilger 2 for 9 the last 5 years with debuting juveniles; one paid 7-1, the other was 35-1; Malibu Moon has hit with about 16% of his juvenile debuters in a 394-horse sample; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; one for 23 dam cashed on grass as older horse; all 3 siblings won; 2 won at 2 including Acaffella, who took a stakes, banked nearly $140K; drills at the Spa well spaced.

Ozone

Songandaprayer has hit with about 13% of his juvenile firsters in a 367-runner study; sire was unbeaten in 2 starts at 2, took a G1 earned almost $400K; 2 for 21 dam earned almost $100K, was 2nd twice in best results at 2; the half sis that won once did so routing as older racer; may need experience.

Diannestillworks

Rodriguez 9 for 54 or 17% the last 5 years with debuting juveniles; Scat Daddy about 17% with juvenile firsters in a 113-runner sample; sire; sire took debut at 2, won multiple Grade 1s, earned over $1.3 million; dam took debut at 2, lost only other start; both siblings won including juvenile debut winner No Big Deal; bullets in holster.

Just too Perfect

Pleasantly Perfect about 18% with juvenile firsters in a 91-runner sample; sire didn't run at 2, took BC Classic on way to over $7.7 million career; 3 for 13 dam earned nearly $100K, was third in best result at 2; 4 of 5 siblings won; 2 won debuts at 2; top kin was probably full sister Pleasant Miss, who was SP and earned nearly $100K taking one of 8; she sure looks fit enough. - Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Mischieviously

His overall form has been strong enough to give him a competitive look in this spot, but it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his first turf start in his latest outing, and note that he was a pretty heavy favorite against those 10 rivals.

Captain Keon

He's clearly fast enough to run with these and he finished right behind today's rival Retire Fifty Five just two starts back; he's a solid fit at this level of competition and going to look for him to give a good account of himself while making his third start of 2014.

Retire Fifty Five

Both of his turf starts look pretty good when compared to what most of these have shown to be capable of, and he even beat a couple of these two back; he might not have cared for racing close up to a slow early pace in his latest outing, and he should see a much more lively early pace in this event.

Mach Seven

He looked like he might be turning the corner a little bit with the addition of blinkers back in December, but when taking into account his last six starts, including his turf debut in his latest outing, he looks like more of an outsider.

Professor Pegasus

Don't care to see what this barn has been doing with recent turf starters, but this 130k purchase might still have more to show us, and this barn has had a good deal of success with the MSW to MCL move over the years; not willing to give up on this one just yet.

Perfect American

He's yet to show up with a truly competitive performance and he's another in here entering this race off of a lackluster turf debut; obviously he's going to need his best effort to date if he's to have a say in the outcome.

Bold Runner

He looks like he can prove to be an early pace factor, but he's another who must find a way to produce a much improved overall performance in order to put any pressure on the top contenders in here.

Pilatus

This barn has been live at this meeting and they appear to have this gelding nicely spotted; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 6/19 going 1m over turf vs. starter alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer; Solis has won with 4 of 14 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Uragano

He's had plenty of chances to show us what he can do and he's yet to run a race that is anywhere near strong enough to get the job done in this spot; strictly an outsider.

Secret Ops

Have to respect the high degree of early speed that he brings with him and this really isn't a bad spot for him to stretch out in distance and make his second start back from a layoff; if anyone in here is going to lead this field every step of the way, this might be the one.

Niki and Dylan

This is an outfit that does nice work with young/lightly raced horses, but after showing up with an improved run at second asking, it would have been nice to have seen him show more when trying turf for the first time in his latest start.

Swig It

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; 400k purchase makes his first start in the maiden claiming ranks and perhaps the move to turf will agree with him.

Tree Fire

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts, including three turf starts; this colt is a 1/2 to Start Up (2-22, 72k, including 2 of 15 over turf for 53k); it looks like they tried to tighten the screws in his latest workout.

Azorian

Not wild about what he's shown in his two most recent races with the addition of blinkers, but he has turf in his pedigree, and his dam was a multiple stakes winner while winning 8 of 27 turf starts for 369k.

Charitable

He's three-deep on the Also Eligible list but he'll command respect as a top contender while making his first start against maiden claiming competition if he gets to go; 1st call for Rice.

Butkennyrun

A couple of horses in the main body of this race have respectable dirt form on their card and this gelding is going to have to find a way to show more if he's thinking about landing something more than a small share of the prize. - Brian Pochman

Race 6

Cap the Moment

It has been a while since he's been in a sprint and the only time he went this distance he wasn't much of a factor; his recent Beyer Speed Figures come in a bit light and the barn hasn't won with the last 28 they have moved from a route to a sprint; others look more attractive.

Coolusive

He finished behind Real Estate Rich two back and then got bumped pretty hard at the half-mile pole when he finished fourth in a $40K claimer in his latest; along with Crafty Dreamer he has the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and with just 14 starts he has the most wins in the field; blinkers on and a couple of decent works since he ran add to his appeal; contender.

Crafty Dreamer

NY-bred just missed in his two previous sprints and the horse that beat him April 12 won his next start in a $62.5K optional claimer before finishing a close third in the Grade 2 True North; this guy won't mind the cutback in distance after a decent effort in a one-mile state-bred stakes; the second-place finisher won an $80K optional with a 102 Beyer in his next start; Rosario attracted; the pick.

Jimmy Connors

There isn't a ton of speed in this field so he should get a nice trip from a forward position; lightly-raced 3-year-old hasn't been worse than third in any of his sprints so he should appreciate the shorter distance after fading going 1 1/16miles in a first-level allowance June 7; the past five years Breen has a 17 percent strike rate with horses going from a route to a sprint; plus, for hunch players, they are playing at Wimbledon right now; contender.

Vicksburg Bluffs

He raced greenly in his debut and those that kept that faith were rewarded with a huge price; horse that finished third came back earn an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for winning a MSW race here June 8; this guy set very slow fractions in his win, and while there isn't a ton of speed here he is going to have to work a lot harder in his first try with winners; he's a half to Grade 3 winner Crowned Dancer so there should be some upside potential here; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Tiznowforamerica

Looks like the one they will have to catch and he ran an improved race in his first try as a 3-year-old after closing out his juvenile with a couple of disappointing efforts against Grade 1 and 2 company; the past five years Albertrani has a 15 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff; Rosario bails to ride Crafty Dreamer but he's reunited with Castellano who was aboard for his first two starts including his win; playable.

Real Estate Rich

He's been in the mix in every race since he was claimed by Jacobson and he figures to be a main player in this race; he certainly won't mind the cutback in distance after finishing third as the chalk in a $20K starter race June 12 and the past five years Jacobson has an 18 percent strike rate with horses going from a route to a sprint; not sure if the shape of the race will work in his favor but he's just too consistent to leave out; at the very least he should be part of any exotics ticket. - Randy Goulding

Race 7

Pep the Champ

Draws the fence for his first with winners after capitalizing on a quick clip to break his maiden off the freshening here a few weeks back; colt goes for a barn that does well second back from time off and maybe the new blinkers have just done the trick but he doesn't have any early foot and may not be able to rely on a setup to get the job done in here; still, he's one to fear in the lane.

Distorted Dream

Tough break did him in when turned back to sprint on the Jersey shore last time and now he'll return to a course over which he hasn't hit the board in 2 tries; his lone win came routing but with a better start last time he would like have been able to boss that cheaper bunch he faced at Monmouth; with the top local pilot getting back aboard he looms a dangerous threat today.

Official

Filly tackles the boys after earning a top last out number in her initial turf spin while tackling a trip longer than she'll attempt today; she broke her maiden sprinting on the main track earlier in the meet so the cut back to this trip shouldn't pose her much trouble, but returning just a couple of weeks off her last, she may not be able to get back to it and you know she'll take plenty of tote support.

Ginger's Joe

Failed to threaten limited winners in his return to this course a couple of weeks back; maybe the 8 year old is set for a better try, but it's been an awfully long time since his maiden score and he hasn't been a threat for even a minor awards in a while; have to pass on this longshot.

Pin and Win

Hasn't been on the lawn since his Calder debut run last summer when he was crushed by MSWs; sophomore showed some speed through slow splits on the main track last out but had little left late and there's not a lot to suggest she'll appreciate the return to the green for this low percentage outfit; he did earn a career best number across town the last time today's pilot was aboard.

Coldwater Flat

Fresh gelding tries the lawn again after running into a pretty good one first time over the footing in the spring at Aqueduct and failing to finish the heat; he does bring some sprint speed to the table and this low percentage outfit boasts a recent winner off this type of break, but don't know that he'll improve enough to threaten second time on the lawn.

Lane Allen

Bossed a weak bunch of maidens from a tracking spot on the main track last week and now he'll get back to the green he tried without much luck 2 starts back; gelding tries winners for the first time today but maybe his last was what he needed to gain some confidence and he is kin to 2 surface winners in the states including G2 SP, SW and 211K earner True Cause who earned most of that on the lawn; barn's recent numbers with turfers aren't great, but this guy is worth a look.

Scare City

MTO will try winners for the first time if the rains come and the way he looked bossing maidens in the local mud suggests he's be just fine with that; new blinkers helped him move forward significantly and he figures to be able to sit right up with the leaders early if he gets to go; has the look of a repeater if this gets moved off the lawn.

Stowe

Looked impressive breaking his maiden from close range against cheap maidens in his local debut; colt draws a great staking post for his first turf spin but his sibs are a combined 0 for 5 on the green and his dam was winless from 3 spins over the stuff; sire is 2 for 17 with his initial surface starters. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Desert Bliss

It's fair to wonder if she can be at her best at today's one mile distance, but she looks like she's in good form entering this race while going sprint-sprint-route for her third start back from a layoff.

Strike Accord

She's capable of packing a strong stretch punch on her best day and she's been at her best racing over the Belmont Park turf; however, the early pace in this race might be slow to develop, and that won't be to her liking; Alvarado has won with 5 of 20 (25%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

A Prettydixie

Her best effort appears to be a cut or two below what the top contenders in here have shown to be capable of and that makes it difficult to envision her producing a performance that makes her competitive in this spot.

Irish Sweepstakes

Any Given Saturday has been a positive influence as a turf sire and this stakes placed miss has some turf on the bottom of her pedigree as well; this is only her second turf attempt and she didn't finish all that far behind today's rival Stike Accord in her turf debut in her latest outing.

Selenite

Like to see what this filly did in her first two starts as a 3-year-old and she was probably in just a little bit too tough in her latest outing; feel that she has a chance to bounce back with a sharper start, and the rider switch to Velazquez might be a positive indicator.

Caribean Beat

She has the ability to jump up with a competitive effort against competition of this caliber on her best day and perhaps she'll be ready to run a good one while making her second start back from a layoff; note that Rosario has been aboard for a couple of her better performances.

Miz Owell

She boasts the two best last race Beyer Speed Figures in here and she's going to appreciate the drop in class after taking on stakes competition in her latest start; if she brings her 'A' game to the table, she'll make one of these have to jump up to beat her.

Alternative Meds

She ran well when placed over turf during her 3-year-old season and not going to be at all surprised if she bounces back with a sharper performance while making her second start as a 4-year-old; at the very least, she merits consideration underneath in the exotics.

Once a Week

A Pretty Dixie and Irish Sweepstakes might be the ones to deny if this race has to be moved to the main track, but this will still be a decent spot for this miss to land in; she's out of a G2 winning dam who won 5 of 14 starts for 251k, and this filly is a 1/2 to G3 winner Z Fortune (3-15, 432k, including 0-for-1 over turf); Solis has won with 4 of 14 (29%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

No Tunes

Sire gets 10% first out winners and 6% first surface winners from his offspring and this gal is the first foal to hit the track out of an unraced dam; post is no bargain for a newcomer and the listed breezes are slow, but this barn is certainly capable of firing with one right out of the box.

Fresh Feline

Sire hits with 16% of his debut runners and 15% of his initial turf starters; her SW dam banked 134K while winning twice on the lawn prior to dropping G3 SW sprinter and 133K earner So Brilliant who won first time out and never tried the lawn; while a quick glance at this gal's pedigree would suggest she'd like more ground, this outfit certainly knows how to prepare them.

Irish Tart

Sire hits with nearly 11% of his newcomers and 9% of his first time turfers; she's the first foal to race out of a G2 SP, G3 SW dam who earned 136K; upstate works aren't much and the barn usually takes its time with this type but it wouldn't be much of a surprise if she could run a little over this stuff.

Skipping

She's shown solid early foot on other surfaces in each of her 3 spaced starts and now she'll move to the infield; sire gets nearly 15% first turf winners and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping 3 surface winners including G2 SP, G3 SW and 523K earner Meribel who won 6 times on the surface; barn does well both second off the break and with first turfers and the fact there's no layoff since her local debut bodes rather well for her from a fitness standpoint; contender.

Street Trick

She's had plenty of chances but does own the best numbers of the bunch and her career best Beyer did come over the local course last year; getting back to this footing should help, but she's been off her game since returning from Florida and this is the type to try and beat; acknowledge her best would make her tough, but prefer to side with others on the win end.

Golden Maria

Steps up to face MSWs after tiring from her pace efforts on the turn back to sprint late time; expect she'll again offer some early foot, but don't think she'll be around as the wire approaches; have to pass on her.

Final Redemption

Sire gets 11% first out winners and 10% first turf winners from his offspring; dam never tried the lawn but all 6 of her foals to race are winners including G3 SP, turf winner and 147K earner Henshin Hero and multiple SW and 487K earner Blue Heart who finished second once in 5 grass tries; barn does nice work with newcomers and a top pilot will get aboard; some of the drills at her base indicate she has at least a little bit of ability.

Polyantha Rose

Sire hits with 7% of his overall firsters and 7% of his first time turfers and she's the first foal to race out of a South American G1 SW dam who scored once on the lawn up here; works don't offer many clues, but this barn does boast sharp numbers with its debut runners; solid journeyman pilot named doesn't get aboard many for this outfit.

Orient Harbor

Filly ran well when cut back to this trip in her second last sod try and was given a little extra time off the effort; she fired a pretty good effort fresh to begin this campaign and maybe she has a move forward in her while equipped with shades for the second time; giving her the nod to return running for a patient outfit.

Southbound Swinger

Adds the hood for her second turf try after being defeated less than 3 lengths by the gal drawn to her immediate inside here; her lone sib was SW and 115K earner Private Tutor who won twice on the lawn so she does have a right to move forward second time over this footing for a barn whose limited starters have been all around the money here.

Miadora

Showed improved lick on the stretchout last time, but hasn't had much involvement late in either of her main track starts; sire hits with 10% of his first turfers and the sprint winning dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping a foal who also lost her lone turf start; barn does nice work with this type and the top local pilot does get aboard.

Illapa

Barn has quietly had a solid stand and now they'll bring back a gal who ran ok behind a subsequent repeater in her lone one turn try on this footing early last fall; she'll get yet another new pilot for the comebacker but she's been working steadily and they bring her down here to start rather than wait a couple of weeks to have her run where she's been stabled; worth a good look against this moderate bunch.

Running Wild

MTO did little running first out across town last fall and now she'll make her first start since for this new outfit; filly worked a solid half mile here a couple of weeks back and is kin to 4 multiple winners including SW and 847K earner Cherokee Artist who won 3 times from 5 starts over wet tracks (runner up in the other 2 tries); expecting she'll have a lot more to offer if this comes off the green. - Steve Grabowski