Belmont: Closer Looks for July 2, 2014

Race 1

Evrybdymstgetstonz

Debuts for Contessa who the past five years has a 9 percent strike rate with first-time starting juveniles; sire 3/25 with debuting 2-year-olds; dam was unraced; only sib to race is a 3-year-old that is unplaced in three starts; rail can be a bit intimidating for first-timers; prefer others.

Zo Zo

She's from the first crop of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver who hasn't had a debut winner from 5 starters; she is also the first foal out of a mare that won a single race from 7 starts for earnings of $39K; Dutrow 16 percent with first-time starting 2-year-olds the past five years; bullets fired in her last two works in Maryland; contender.

Razia Sultana

Harlan's Holiday is an above average debuts sire with roughly 15 percent of his 2-year-olds winning first-time out; all 7 siblings are winners including Samraat who won all 3 of his starts as a baby and the Grade 3 Gotham and Grade 3 Withers this year; the past five years Violette has a 21 percent strike rate with debuting 2-year-olds; the pick.

She's Marvy

Bellamy Road 8/73 with first-time starting 2-year-olds; dam won her second start as a baby and one more race - both on turf; lone sibling is a winner and compiled a 0-2-1 record as a 2-year-old; since 2012 barn is 0/4 with debuting babies but two finished second at decent prices; consider for the exotics.

Ten Penny Princess

Debuts for Breen who can have babies ready to roll first-time out- 18 percent over the past five years; Thunder Gulch just average at 9 percent with 2-year-old first-time starters; $218K dam won as a 2-year-old but most of her money was earned going long; lone sib won her second start at two but all 3 of her wins came in routes; nice work at Monmouth June 15 and Rosario is attracted; playable.

Yourcreditisgood

$75K purchase in April has beenworking on the slow side and he comes out of a barn that doesn't crank up their babies - 0/28 with first-time strarting juveniles the past five years; sire 2/13 with debuting 2-year-olds; dam placed once in 5 starts; one of 3 sibs is a winner with under $11K earned; passing.

Timely Cat

Nice set of works showing at Fair Hill but since 2011 the barn is 0/4 with debuting 2-year-olds - 8 percent with all first-time starters over the past five years; sire is roughly 7 percent with 2-year-old first-time starters; dam was unraced; both of her sibs to race are winners and one was stakes-placed at two; exotics?

Race 2

Goodtolook

Those were pretty quick fractions so it wasn;'surprising he faded in is latest on the turf; the past five years Contessa has a 13 percent strike rate with horses moving from turf to dirt; he appears to have just one way of gooing and he's probably going to have a hard time dealing with The Rhythmisright; he could be a handful if it comes up wet, otherwise we would only use him underneath in the exotics.

Indy Tune

Deep closer should have an honest and contested pace to work with and this will be his first start since being haltered by Jacobson who the past five years has a 24 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time; he also has solid numbers with horses coming back in a week or less; would need a Beyer boost to contend for the top spot but there will be speed coming back to him; consider for the exotics.

The Rhythmisright

Toss his race three back where he was the inside horse in a two-horse duel that fried both of them and he's been in the mix in all of his races; looks like the main speed and he is certainily capable of taking them all the way if he gets the jump on Goodtolook; he's had a couple of solid works since his last start and his high-percentage trainer appears to have him primed for another strong effort; big shot.

Bass River Road

He's been freshened since he faded badly in The Rhythmisright's narrow loss May 15 and the past five years Ryerson has a 13 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days; his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 74 comes in quite a bit light and with just a single work showing since he got waxed in his latest we're going going to look in other directions.

B Shanny

5-year-old had a productive season in 2013 which included a stakes win at Finger Lakes last August, but, he hasn't won since; it also isn't encouraging that Rice was willing to part with him for $20K after claiming him for $50K in March; not sure how he'll handle coming back this quickly, and it's hard to love him after he lost to Indy Tune as the heavy chalk last week; prefer others.

John's Island

He improved quite a bit since he got off the inner track across town and was also taken over by Jerkens; he had to wait for room before beating next-out winner Noble Cornerstone two back, and he might have got up for second if he didn't get bumped around in the upper stretch in the Mike Lee; he should get a clean trip from this post and there should be plenty of speed to set him up; the pick.

Race 3

Dinner Time

Sire Montbrook gets about 10% 2yo debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 5 of 8 for $373K, 4 SWs including multiple G3s; dam has 6 winners from 7 foals including Gourmet Dinner (6 wins, $1.1 million, G3 SW, G2 SP) and full-sibs to this guy Crazybrook (16 wins) and On the Rail (9 wins); dam off board only start; solid works.

Evolution

Sire Speightstown gets about 12% 2yo debut winners; sire won 10 of 16 for $1.2 million, won G1 BC Sprint, multiple G2s, was champion sprinter; dam has 1 winner from 3 foals, Exciter (3 wins, $18K); dam won 3 of 11 for $122K, G2 SP; works are steady though don't hint at a lot of speed.

Enjoy the Show

Sire Jump Start gets almost 11% 2yo debut winners; sire won 2 of 5 for $221K, was G2 SW, G1 SP; dam has 4 winners from 5 foals including Tomica's Spirit (8 wins, $240K, SP); dam won 3 of 17 for $78K; some snappy works indicate speed and Toner making the most from limited starts this meet (4 for first 11, 36%).

Cat Fiftyfive

Sire Tale of the Cat gets over 17% 2yo debut winners; sire won 5 of 9 for $360K, was G2 SW, 3-time G1 SP; dam has 9 winners from 10 foals to race including Hello Lover (13 wins, $451K, G3 SP) and Coquettish (3 wins, $192K, SW, multiple SP); dam was off board in 3 starts for $2K; plenty of works including some brisk ones for a trainer who fires first out (2 for last 9, 22%).

Machination

Sire Yes It's True gets over 14% 2yo debut winners; sire won 11 of 22 for over $1 million, won G1 De Francis, was multiple G2/G3 SW, also G1 SP; dam has 3 winners from 4 foals including Truth and Justice (4 wins, $238K, 3 SWs) and Mr Hall's Opus (2 wins, $155K, G3 SP); dam won 3 of 13 for $69K, SW, SP; some brisk works in Jersey for a trainer who's strong first out (26%).

I Spent It

Young sire Super Saver 0 for first 5 2yo debut runners; sire won 3 of 10 for $1.8 million including G1 Ky. Derby, also a G2 SW and G1 SP; dam's lone foal is Switcheroo (2 3rds in 5 starts, $12K); dam won 1 of 10 for $28K; colt cost a pretty penny ($600K) so you know there are expectations here; been working splendidly.

Battle Red

Sire Kitten's Joy gets over 16% 2yo debut winners; sire won 9 of 14 for $2 million, won G1 Joe Hirsch, G1 Secretariat, 2nd in G1 BC Turf, G1 Arlington Million, multiple G2/G3 SW, was champion turf horse; dam's 2 foals, both full to this colt, have yet to win from 7 and 2 starts, respectively; dam won 7 of 14 for $361K, had 5 SWs; plenty of solid works for Pletcher who is not only strong first out (22%) but who has dominated the 2yo scene in NY the past few years.

Race 4

Copper Bluff

Dead short to kick off the year, she has been professional since and should at least be able to save ground from the fence; 5/29 place horse cashed next out in a $16K N2L fray, lost next pair; filly is sharp as a tack but this field is a whole new ballgame; needs very best.

Very Accomplished

Troubled in the debut, has been given time since the flop as chalk; 2nd and 7th finishers 2/24 graduated next out; Alvarado hired and he is 11 for 37 for this barn in the last year; don't ignore.

Darn That Trip

Off the rail, maybe connections had this race in mind all the time; note miss improved 13 Beyer digits when beaten a half in the last second off the layoff run; show horse 3/22 took an $8K claimer next out, then lost in an $8K starter; all of her wins except the first have been against conditioned claimers; look for rider to send hard but you get the feeling if she is looked in the eye, she'll blink.

Little Gabby Girl

Crushed at 22-1 the other time as this level; miss has natural speed but can pass horses too; note she was 3 clear in last, a similar margin to the show horse; she has the 3 races now to draw from but she could again find herself with a lot of work to do turning for home; contender, far from a cinch.

Blue Sixty Four

Mare showed signs of life in May finale, then snapped out of her slump at 28-1; the good news pretty much ends there; she has Copper Bluff to deal with and banking on a 2 for 50 runner to repeat is an iffy situation at best; would be careful here.

Charming Eyes

Wide first time vs. winners, but the other 2 efforts have been solid since the graduation; a bit more keen to run early in last and note shw was nearly 8 clear of the third finisher; she is giving away winning experience to most in the field and that could show at crunch time.

Bridgetta

Nice bit of training to have her on her game in the May return off the extended layoff; and she was far from disgraced in last; she obviously likes this layout, has more zip than she just flashed and the place horse 5/21 took a $20K N3L claimer next out with a 71 Beyer; tactical speed a major plus; all systems go.

Sheriffa

Wide in last pair, shades new and wonder if the blinkers were on for the keen drill on the 23rd; out of the money only once and it came in the stakes; filly has a shot to have a nice carerer as kin to 7 for 17 near $200K earner Love Your Smile; due to hit paydirt

Race 6

Best Play

Usually don't see a lot of runners fire well after Pletcher but this one has put in 2 strong races including a win and career-best Beyer speed figure; class leap from the starter alw. victory and Best Play gets his most-recent win rider; was a non-factor in his only other start racing at least this far but has the right style to handle 1 Mile and an eighth; seems the one to beat.

Make a Decision

Late runner was freshened up off his lowest Beyer since Feb. 2013; he loves the BEL-Inner Turf going 2-for-3 here all exacta finishes; the 24%-winning layoff trainer keeps the win rider who had other options here; going to have to be at the top his game to avenge latest loss to Stableford; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 92 in a next-out GP-optional-claiming win; contender.

V. E. Day

Owns an improving-career Beyer pattern with just 3 starts still has unlimited upside as the only 3-year-old in the field; the main knock is that he hasn't won on turf yet; loved the wet-main track winning despite a troubled trip; sire was a monster turfer and one of the trainer's top win angles is with repeaters (27% since 2013); the pick.

Majestic Jess (IRE)

Exits a best-last-race Beyer at 1F shorter; he also needed the last race following a December layoff; his November rally at today's distance gave the impression 9F is well within his scope; good 2nd off-the-bench barn has not been firing best this BEL meet but keeps the 2-back win rider.

Wind of Bosphorus

Try to catch me; projects loose on the lead; reunites with Johnny V who has a win and a 2nd in 2 starts with him; has been unable to run back to his co-field-best Beyer posted for Asmussen in October; the trainer is just 2-for-28 first off the claim since 2013; was outfinished at shorter in last and today is the longest distance race of his career.

Secret Bid

Lone win on dirt obviously wanting no parts of KEE synthetic in last; passed a few runners in his last turf start but none of his 3 grass races have dazzled the eye; his 4-back graduation dirt win saw the show finisher Beyer 69 in a next-out AQU-MSW win.

Stableford (GB)

Good-exacta finish 2-back going 1st-time Lasix and racing with his lightest-weight assignment ever; defeated the show finisher that day who Beyered 69 in a CBY-OPC next-out win; Beyer went backwards 2nd time in the USA when landing behind Majestic Jess; off that defeat is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Alarmed Ndangerous

Long absence after only racing 5 times in 2013; can he win at his longest-distance test ever right off the November layoff?; the 2 and 3-back Beyers are co-field-best speed figures; exits a race with 4 next-out winners; the show, 6th, 8th and 10th-place finishers Beyered 97-88-86 in next-out BEL-AQU alw.-optional claiming and MAL-MSW wins.

Rap d'Oro

Main Track Only entry enters with 10 straight starts in claimers; he will have to pass the class test here; since rider Mejias took over he has been a new runner with an improving Beyer pattern again all vs. lesser; Secret Bid, Wind of Bosphorous, V E Day and Best Play have all performed well enough on dirt to win this.

Race 8

To My Valentine (FR)

Only 8th in a turf sprint stakes at PIM last time out May 17, yes, but note she was beaten just 2 lengths so she ran pretty well; had to steady late, too; heat has been flattered as it's produced 3 next-out winners; freshened and Ward at his best off the bench; it's first time here but she's run well in France, on GP sod, FG sod, SAR sod, KD sod, KEE turf and PIM turf so odds are she'll handle this place.

Coarsegold

Not disgraced at all when 5th in the License Fee on the Widener course May 11 as she was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths; freshened since and she's done well before off the bench; has some versatility of style and nice to see Bravo stay with her.

Corporate Culture

Won at 7fs on the Widener last Oct. 24 and wasn't seen again until May 18 but there was no rust when she returned as she led all the way to another 7f test on the Widener; those 2 wins were accomplished in completely different ways, too, so she's got versatility; note her maiden win came on this inner course back in Oct. 2012; plenty of solid works since that May 18 comeback tally.

Miss d'Oro

Sire Medaglia d'Oro gets 11% first time turf winners, over 12% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 8 of 17 for $5.7 million, was multiple G1 SW on dirt, never tried turf; dam won 1 of 8 for $36K, never tried turf; 3 of 4 sibs are winners but the 2 who tried turf were off the board in 1 and 2 tries, respectively; certainly has dirt quality - you can see she's been on a steady stakes diet - so if she transfers that to turf she can have a say...though that's no small 'if', is it?

Sensible Lady

Broke poorly in a turf sprint stakes at PIM May 31 but kept to her task nicely to finish 4th; not only did she run on well but remember that came vs. boys, too, and the only 2 to exit that race so far won their next start; J.R. takes the call and with 2 races under her belt and a return to facing her own sex she merits respect.

Cat Lore

Good news is that when last seen she was winning a turf sprint at WO and then running a nice 5th in a G3 turf sprint there; trouble is, 'when last seen' was almost a year ago as those outings came last July 6 and July 28; at least it's Mr. Clement calling the shots and you know how good he is off the bench; mare has some versatility, too, which gives her rider some options.

Race 9

Sounds of Saratoga

He has some early speed to throw at these after breaking out of post one but it's tough to have confidence in him until he shows more late in his races; runner up from latest won next out here on 6/14 going 6f vs. MSW rivals with an 89 Beyer.

Chang's Secret

Late running type might be set for better while turning back in distance for his third start back from a layoff, and if he can find his way back to one of his stronger performances, he can get himself into the mix against these.

Leatherhead Lurie

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he has some early speed and like to see Lezcano aboard again, but he's obviously going to need to show more in his turf debut if he's to get the job done.

Dream Theory

Full brother to stakes winner In Te Domine (3-12, 135k over turf) has shown a little something in his three turf attempts and like the idea of him meeting up with maiden claimers for the first time; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 6/20 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 62 Beyer.

Island Therapy

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 13 of 69 starts for 197k, including 0-for-2 over turf; he's shown steady improvement since day one and this is a realistic spot to find out what he's capable of racing over turf.

Sir Maurice

Getting back over turf might not be a bad thing for this gelding but he's clearly going to need to step it up over what he's been doing lately if he's to have a say in the outcome; he's a 1/2 to Breathaway (3-17, 106k over turf).

Where's Elliot

He's a possible early pace factor, but it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his turf debut in his latest outing; winner from latest won next out here on 6/19 going 1m over turf vs. starter alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer; Rice has won with 3 of 6 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Little T. Louie

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from five starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this gelding is a full to stakes placed Oedipus O'Neal (8-64, 367k, including 2 of 22 turf starts for 144k); runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 5/26 going 6f vs. 40k MCL's with a 63 Beyer.

Downgoesfrazier

He's clearly fast enough to be competitive in this spot and note the near-miss finish in his one start against maiden claiming competition prior to this; Velazquez has been aboard for a few of his better efforts, and the third-place finisher from his latest race returned to win next out at Aqu on 12/6 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 69 Beyer.

Vecino

Street Boss has been a strong influence as a turf sire, and all things considered, this gelding ran well at second asking after taking a lot of time off; runner up from latest won next out at CT on 6/13 going 6 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with a 71 Beyer; feel that this one is eligible to still have more to show us.

Bajan Summer

The move to turf seemed to agree with this son of Speightstown and he seems to be taking a well meant drop in class for this; he has to be respected as a contender and note what this barn has been doing with starters making their second start back from this type of a layoff.

Lake Effect

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; he's going to need his sharpest performance to date to get the better of this field and not sure the move to turf will prove to be a key for him.

Greg's Intuition

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 4 of 16 starts for 116k, and she didn't make a start over turf; have to be a little concerned when seeing the trouble he's had maintaining a forward gear late in his races, but maybe the move to turf can help.

Full Pads

Lightly raced gelding probably hasn't shown us his best stuff yet and like the idea of him dropping back in with maiden claimers and scrapping blinkers; he might be worth keeping an eye out for in the event that he draws in.

Sand Paper

He improved along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing and note the changes with Lasix and blinkers; a few sharp looking recent workouts help add appeal.

King Gettigan

This will be a favorable spot for this runner to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf and he might appreciate being turned back to a sprint distance for this; he'll have the look of a top contender while going out for a barn that has been live at this meeting.