Bellafina looks strong, but be wary of favorites in La Brea

ARCADIA, Calif. – Favorites are not reliable in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, not even Bellafina on Saturday at Santa Anita.

Eight weeks after the highest-rated performance of her career, a 105-Beyer Speed Figure return-to-form second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, Bellafina returns as the favorite in the La Brea for 3-year-old fillies. The seven-furlong sprint is race 7 of 11 on opening day.

Bellafina probably will win if she reproduces her Breeders’ Cup fig, which was 10 points higher than her previous top and more than 20 points higher than any recent race. Or, she could return to normal in the chalk-smothering La Brea. The last five odds-on favorites lost, seven of the last eight. Overall, La Brea favorites are 3 for 20 the past two decades.

Statistical gobbledygook? Maybe. Eight others will try to knock off the favorite, including comeback upset candidate Mother Mother, Kentucky shipper Bell’s the One, and a pair of lightly raced fillies expected to make noise this winter – First Star and Hard Not to Love.

The winter campaign for First Star and Hard Not to Love is likely to be two turns, but sprinters Bellafina, Mother Mother, and shipper Bell’s the One are right at home around one turn. Del Mar May, Free Cover, Stirred, and Motion Emotion also entered.

Bellafina is the class of the field. Although she won two Grade 1 routes, the Santa Anita Oaks and Chandelier Stakes, trainer Simon Callaghan believes she prefers seven furlongs.

“That was always her best distance, she showed that as a 2-year-old, and her comeback race as a 3-year-old,” he said, referring to wins in the Del Mar Debutante and Santa Ynez at Santa Anita.

Bellafina, whose rider is Flavien Prat, won her first four starts at Santa Anita before finishing second in the seven-furlong BC Filly and Mare Sprint.

Mother Mother was thwarted three times by Bellafina, but Mother Mother returns from a layoff on Saturday. It’s important, because she ran the fastest race of her career first time out. Mother Mother, stakes winner and Grade 1-placed, has not started since May.

“She was getting sour,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “We turned her out in Kentucky. She didn’t get hurt. She just didn’t run well.”

Baffert, who has won the La Brea seven times, said Mother Mother is working “very well.” She is drawn outside with a pressing style and Joel Rosario. Mother Mother benefits from a tepid pace scenario.

Lightly raced First Star won her first two starts in California prior to finishing second behind Bell’s the One in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland. Trainer Ron Ellis looks forward to stretching out First Star.

“Seven-eighths isn’t her best distance,” Ellis said. “When she goes a mile, she’s going to be better. I wanted to keep her schedule light overall. If we get placed, we’ll be happy, then move on to the longer races.”

First Star drew the rail with Drayden Van Dyke.

Bell’s the One exploited a pace collapse to win the Raven Run for trainer Neil Pessin, who is starting a horse in California for the first time. Bell’s the One’s rider is Javier Castellano. Regular rider Corey Lanerie would have been available if the La Brea was run Dec. 26 as scheduled, but Lanerie is named on six horses Saturday at Fair Grounds.

The challenge for Bell’s the One and First Star is a tepid pace scenario. Both rally from behind.

Hard Not to Love is a one-eyed sibling to Queen’s Plate winner Wonder Gadot. Trainer John Shirreffs plans to stretch out Hard Not to Love to two turns. Meantime, Hard Not to Love has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed under Mike Smith.