Bella Flor has much upside in Paxson Memorial
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEAlthough she’s only a lukewarm favorite at 7-2 on the track’s morning line, Bella Flor has several factors in her favor that indicate she will be difficult to beat in Sunday’s $75,000 Mrs. Henry Paxson Memorial Stakes for Pennsylvania-bred 2-year-old fillies at Presque Isle Downs.
Bella Flor comes into the six-furlong Tapeta sprint as one of only two fillies in the 10-horse field with a victory on a synthetic surface. She also finished third, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths, facing males two weeks ago in the Mark McDermott. And, finally, her 61 Beyer Speed Figure for her most recent race is eight points higher than any of her other rivals have recorded on any surface.
Hey Monba is the only other filly in the field to have won on Tapeta. She captured her career debut in late July, beating just four horses, none of whom subsequently have run faster than a 53 Beyer.
Based on pedigree, an uncoupled pair of maidens from Parx-based trainer Lupe Preciado – might take to the new surface. Lady Lion, fourth of 10 with traffic trouble in her career debut two weeks ago, is a daughter of Run Away and Hide, whose 2-year-old offspring are 8 for 27 (30 percent) over the past five years on synthetic surfaces.
Preciado’s other filly, Roman’s Middy, missed by a neck in the same five-furlong maiden race as her stablemate. Midshipman, the sire of Roman’s Middy, is 3 for 17 (18 percent) over the past five years with his 2-year-olds on synthetic surfaces.
Little Miss Miss won easily facing just two opponents in her career debut in June, then was ambitiously spotted and beat just one horse in the Grade 3 Schuylerville and was last of four in a turf sprint stakes at Saratoga. Her trainer, Butch Reid, is 0 for 2 over the past five years with horses trying a synthetic surface for the first time.
Imply has been off since winning her career debut with a respectable 52 Beyer on July 11. Her trainer, Bernie Houghton, is 5 for 16 (31 percent) with a high $5.49 return on investment with horses trying Tapeta at Presque Isle for the first time. Last year, his filly Rockin Jojo was fifth at 2-1 in this same stakes.
Honest Feelings got loose on the lead to romp by 13 lengths in a four-horse field at Penn National. Her trainer, Rodrigo Madrigal, is 0 for 2 with horses trying synthetic surfaces for the first time.