Beer: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, Sept. 17, 2017

Late Pick 4

Race 7 - Turf sprint for maiden 2-year-old fillies

Pletcher's #2 BLUE ATLAS seems a near-certainty to appreciate cutting back here, after failing to see out the distance in a two-turn route at Saratoga last time. Her debut, which came over this course and distance, was a solid effort, even though she may not have been facing the strongest field in the world that day.

I'll use her, while giving preference to second-time-starter #7 POUND NOTE, who sat a trip and finished gamely for second in her debut behind a good-looking winner.

The other main use is #11 LULU'S PARTNER, a half-sister to the top turf sprinter Disco Partner debuting for one of the best first-out trainers in the game in Christophe Clement.

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Race 8 - NY-bred allowance-optional claimer over one-mile on turf

#1 NEVISIAN SKY is the horse to beat from her nice inside draw. There are no real excuses to be had for his two recent losses as the favorite upstate (though he was in against the streaking Voodoo Song, who returned to win the Grade 3 Saranac in his next start, most recently), but he has clearly improved on turf and projects for a nice trip in this race.

#11 DREAM DOCTOR finished behind a couple of these horses at Saratoga last time, including Nevisian Sky, but he did not have an easy trip in that race while wide throughout from a tough outside post, and he has some races that would give him a real chance in here at a price. He just needs to work something out from post 10.

#12 WICKED FREUD would be the main backup.

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Race 9 - 6.5-furlong N1x allowance for older NY-breds on the main track

#2 GUCCI FACTOR is the clear horse to beat. He has run four times on the main track thus far, and in two of the four he ran races that would make him very hard on this field. Both of his "good" performances have come routing, however, and he will try to sprint again here after failing to turn back effectively last time.

He is a must-use, but I will cover #8 MISSION COMMAND equally on my tickets. He is making a belated 3-year-old debut following a layoff of 330 days, but if he is ready to fire first time back, he can improve enough to beat this field. He gets a pass for the Sleepy Hollow, where he faded over a sloppy track, and his first three career starts were all strong efforts sprinting on fast dirt.

Race 10 - NY-bred maiden claimers, fillies and mares, sprinting on turf

Spreading in a difficult race to close it out, covering horses like #3 HOLYHOLYHOLY, a first-time starter with some pedigree; #5 INDIAN GEM, third off the layoff and returning to turf for a dangerous trainer; #9 MAZMANIA, who seems better on turf despite spending most of her career on dirt; and #12 MADAME AMBASSADOR, cutting back to a distance that may give her an advantage with competitive form.