Beer: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, May 1

On a rainy and cool Sunday at Belmont, three of the day’s five scheduled turf races have been moved to the main track. The two turf races that remain, both six-furlong sprints for fillies and mares, will be run over courses labeled "good". I'll try to incorporate those two races into a small pick three play that stands against the likely heavy favorite Geaux Mets in race 7.

Race 6: Quaver (3) was a good winner vs. maidens over this course and distance last summer, and she backed that race up very well when finishing a game second to Lady Shipman in the Crank It Up Stakes, also over a course labeled "good". She returned from a long layoff at Gulfstream Park, and appeared to be taking a prep there when rating and rallying for third, before continuing on past the wire. Lady of Victory (10) has been at her best as a late-running turf sprinter, and is a threat if ready off the layoff.

Race 7: Geaux Mets (1) is the horse to beat after posting an easy win with a 93 Beyer in this same condition two weeks ago, but he had an easy trip that day, and this looks like a tougher group for the level. Bass River Road (6) is the horse I want to bet in this race. He is 2 for 2 sprinting for this claiming price in his career, including a 93 Beyer of his own when gunning down an at-the-time in-form The Big Deluxe back in February. Bass River Road ran very well last time when confronted by an early-moving Jeter, and turning him away, only to be closed down at the end by an opportunistic longshot.

Race 8: The $100,000 License Fee goes straight through Lady Shipman (7), who holds a huge edge on her competition based on class and speed. She is just back from a failed attempt in Dubai, but she is too much for this field if right. Shrinking Violet (3) is the one most likely to pull off the upset, but she would need Lady Shipman to be something less than 100 percent to get it done.