Beer: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct. 1

Mother Nature did not cooperate for Super Saturday Part 1 at Belmont Park, where the main track is muddy and all turf races except the two graded stakes are off the grass.

Let’s look at the late pick five, which will include all of the graded stakes, save the four-horse field in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, which features Flintshire at the shortest of prices.

Race 7: I’m going to start it off by leaning heavily on Paulassilverlining (#4), who is dropping out of the Grade 1 Ballerina, where she dueled on the pace and weakened late over a distance that might be a touch far for her. She is fine over a wet track, and this slightly shorter trip is a benefit to her. I am against the other shorter prices on the morning line, Wavell Avenue (#6) and Wonder Gal (#7), but with my alternative, Hot City Girl (#3) scratching, they will be backups.

Race 8: I was duly impressed with the maiden win from Oscar Performance (#6) at Saratoga and have to use him in multirace wagers. I will, however, use both Frostmourne (#1) and Oiseau de Guerre (#8) in the pick five. Frostmourne did parlay a perfect trip into victory in his debut, but he also really ran that day, and he has the pedigree and connections to go on from there. Oiseau de Guerre didn’t win his debut upstate, but his performance was eye-catching nonetheless, and he seems a sure-fire stakes horse in the future for Chad Brown.

Race 9: The Grade 1 Vosburgh has opened up quite a bit with the scratch of A. P. Indian (#5). I still don’t like the chances of X Y Jet (#6) as he starts back off the layoff following minor surgery out of his gutsy effort in Dubai, and will try to get a better price home in this leg. The trio of Weekend Hideaway (#1), Stallwalkin’ Dude (#7) and Dannies Deceiver (#8) have combined to make 89 starts. There is not a graded stakes win anywhere to be found in the 89, but they are three solid and consistent racehorses, they all enter a now watered-down Vosburgh in good form, and they all appreciate a wet track.

Race 10: The Beldame came up exceptionally weak for a Grade 1 in what has been a strong division all year. Forever Unbridled (#2) has been among the top older fillies and mares in the country throughout 2016, and she is supposed to beat this field with anything resembling her good race.

Race 11: Tough way to end it with this maiden special weight race for 2-year-olds coming off the turf. Jo’s Bold Cat (#4) has run the best races so far, but on turf. He may not be helped by the surface switch, but he does catch a break with the race now being run over seven-furlongs. The main ticket in the pick five will cover Jo’s Bold Cat and D’yer Mak’er (#6). There likely will be a ticket singling Paulassilverlining and Forever Unbridled that covers all of these.