Beer: How I'll play Belmont Park on Memorial Day

With races 1 and 5 off the turf and an expected heavy favorite in the fourth, let's avoid the early part of an otherwise very strong New York-bred showcase card on Memorial Day at Belmont. The late pick four (races 7-10) is a tough sequence, and there are a couple of interesting prices in there that I want to get into my play.

Race 7 is the Mike Lee for 3-year-old sprinters. #6 Syndergaard returns to New York looking to rebound off a poor seasonal debut at Churchill Downs last month. He's too tough here if he can get back to any one of his first three starts and likely has to be used defensively at least, but I'm going to start this pick four off with two main horses: #1 T Loves a Fight and #5 Bobby On Fleek.

T Loves a Fight won his maiden for a $40,000 tag on the inner dirt early in the year but has really improved since that win, and he exits a strong try behind the talented sprinter Gold for the King here last month with a competitive speed figure. He can close in a race that may get competitive up front.

Bobby On Fleek just got dusted by graded-stakes horses in the Churchill mud on Derby Day. He cuts back for this, and it is a very good sign that he returns relatively quickly for a trainer who prefers to give his horses time between races. Bobby On Fleek had a soft trip tracking a modest pace in his 2017 debut back on the inner dirt, but he was impressive there while improving to an 89 Beyer Speed Figure top.

Race 8 is a wide-open running of the Commentator. I'm covering the logical likely favorites: #5 Diversify and #9 Governor Malibu. I'm backing up with #4 Hit It Once More, who is every bit as talented as the two favorites but is returning from a layoff in a pretty tough spot. The horse I'm trying to make money with is #3 Eye Luv Lulu, both in the multirace wagers and in this race individually.

Eye Luv Lulu may not be at his best over this one-mile distance, but he has run well over it in the past, and I think he has quietly improved since he was claimed by these connections back in February.

He did not get the cleverest of rides when allowing the mud-loving Alex the Terror to get early position on him two starts back in a slow-paced sprint, and he ran the best race last time out in the Affirmed Success despite taking a very tough beat on the wire.

Race 9 is a typically strong running of the Kingston on turf. My main three in the pick four are #2 Lubash, #3 Get Jets, and #10 Kharafa. #1 Macagone and #8 Offering Plan are backups.

Race 10 is the Bouwerie for 3-year-old filly sprinters, and it goes through the fast and talented #3 Bluegrass Flag. I suspect she takes on more early pressure this time after forcing her main rival in last month's Stallion Series race, #9 Noble Freud, to concede, but she may simply be the best horse in this race.

I'm using Bluegrass Flag, but I'm trying to beat her with #8 Holiday Disguise.

Holiday Disguise ran much better than it looks in each of her first two starts. She rallied late in her debut after a very tough trip, and she returned to overcome a strong inside- and speed-favoring track with ease to win her second start. She cruised by allowance rivals with a big stretch run last time to earn a new top figure, and she should have plenty of pace to close into in this race.