Beer: How I'll play Belmont early pick 5 on Saturday

Saturday’s early pick five at Belmont has a guaranteed pool of $500,000. It is also a sequence that many will be treating as a pick four with Songbird looming a heavy favorite in the final leg, the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.

Race 1: Despite the morning line, the horse to beat in the opener is #6 WILD ABOUT DEB, and it’s tough to get around using him. He has graded stakes form routing as a 3-year-old that suggests he may be too good for this field. I’m not sure what the idea was behind sprinting him last time, but he had little chance over a track that was favoring speed all day at Aqueduct, and he is appropriately stretching back out off a trainer change. #1 VINCENTO has been in good form since finding more speed three starts back, and he stayed gamely last time after getting caught up contesting a fast pace. I’ll use him, and I’ll also use the longshot #8 EXULTING. Exulting has been his own worst enemy so far while failing to get out of the gate with the field in any of his races, but he has shown some real flashes of ability at times, and his last start over this track was a crushing win with a competitive Beyer Speed Figure.

A’s: 1,6,8
B’s: 4,7

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Race 2: #7 WEST COAST is logical in the Easy Goer, and seems like a must-use. #8 YOU'RE TO BLAME has had things working against him in his last couple of races, and may be a bit better than he looks. He may want to go a bit shorter than this, but he is also a horse I have to use. #5 LOCAL HERO is dropping out of some tougher races, and he has excellent early speed when they let him roll, which was not the case last time over that wet track. He can be dangerous on the front end if they are going this time.

A’s: 5,7,8
B’s: 3,4

Race 3: #5 TU BRUTUS made an enterprising pace and almost pulled off the upset while making his stateside debut in the Excelsior, a race that came back with a sky-high Beyer of 119 for the winner. He returned to prove that race was no fluke when speeding clear early and not looking back in the Flat Out last time, earning a Beyer of 109. He has to get an additional furlong here, but he figures tough to catch based on his first two starts over here. It’s hard to get around using #4 SEND IT IN, since he is the horse who ran down Tu Brutus in that Excelsior, and I’ll also use #1 GOVERNOR MALIBU, though this may be the last chance he gets from me.

A’s: 1,4,5
B’s: 3

Race 4: #3 ABEL TASMAN is the horse to beat in the Grade 1 Acorn, but there are some concerns. She does seem like a true router, so turning back to a one-turn mile may not exactly appeal to her, and, while she came through to win the Kentucky Oaks last time, she had all the best of it in that race while closing out in the clear into a fast pace that was collapsing late. She can win, but she may be worth trying to beat as the favorite. I’ll use two main horses against her: #6 TEQUILITA and #8 SALTY. Both are turning back out of that Kentucky Oaks, and both may be better suited to the one-turn mile. Salty has a little traffic trouble at the top of the stretch in the Oaks before rallying late, and she was impressive winning each of her two prior starts. Tequilita will have to up her game a bit in this spot, but she seems to really appreciate shorter distances, and she won a graded stakes the last time she was sent around one-turn.

A’s: 6,8
B’s: 1,3,5,7

Race 5: The final leg is all about #5 SONGBIRD, who is faster than her competition on the way in, and appears to have a pace advantage on the Phipps field, as well. While there are big payoffs awaiting if she gets beat, it is not going to be easy. If I use any backups (she is off a layoff, after all), they would be #2 PAID UP SUBSCRIBER and #7 CARINA MIA.

A’s: 5
B’s: 2,7