Beer: How I'll play Aqueduct for Saturday, Nov. 12

Saturday’s late pick four at Aqueduct features two highly competitive stakes races in the Grade 3 Red Smith, for older turf routers, and the Grade 3 Discovery, for 3-year-olds going nine furlongs on the main track. While both races feature logical favorites, the competition appears to run deep enough that Wake Forest ( Red Smith) and Gift Box (Discovery) can’t win just by showing up.

Race 6:
DELTA PRINCE (2) is very well-bred as a half to the multiple champion Royal Delta, among other good horses from this dam, and he appeared to be a colt in need of his career debut when racing very greenly in the early stages. If he can step forward with that one behind him, he can defeat this field. The other horse for me is T R CREW (1), who switches from turf to dirt, and may appreciate getting back to a shorter distance and back around one-turn after a pair of solid tries going longer at Saratoga.

Race 7
WAKE FOREST (8) is a clear horse to beat in the Red Smith as he drops out of several Grade 1 races. He will appreciate this shorter distance after trying 1 1/2 miles in his last two starts, and he did win a Grade 1 over this distance earlier in the year. He is not a horse to try to beat in a bet such as the pick four, but I will also use DANISH DYNAFORMER (11), who is dropping out of the same series of Grade 1 races as Wake Forest. He may not be as good as Wake Forest, but he has held his own in those recent common races, and he may not have had the best of the trips in those races.

Race 8
The Discovery is a race to take some coverage, as it has come up strong for this division. GIFT BOX (3) is good, and he remains somewhat unexposed still for Chad Brown. I don’t know how short of a price I’d be willing to take on him, but he seems like a must-use in the pick four. GOVERNOR MALIBU (5) is logical, and ADULATOR (1), who has speed from the rail, is a prior winner over this distance around two turns and enters off a career-top Beyer. At a bigger price, I’m also using NEOLITHIC (8). To me he looked like one of trainer Todd Pletcher’s better 2-year-olds last year after getting off to a late start, and he has run well despite not winning since returning from the layoff this summer.

Race 9
The finale is a $25k claimer on the turf, and INDEBTED (8) is the horse to beat. I would be happy to be alive to him on most tickets, but BIRCHWOOD ROAD (3) makes for a nice backup in this kind of race at a better price. He has plenty of races that give him a chance here, and he has run better than it looks in some tough spots since claimed by Charlie Baker.