Beer: How I'd play Saturday's early Breeders' Cup pick five
Race 1: KITTEN'S ROAR figures tough dropping out of a solid showing in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor, though it is worth noting that she caught the kind of give in the ground that she adores in that race. Both she and the consistent ON LEAVE will be part of my play, but the main two for me will be MAJESTIC HEAT and the Marco Botti shipper ALJAZZI.
Main: 9, 11
Backups: 1, 4, 7
Race 2: Using the logical three to try to get through the second leg.
SMOKEM shows just one win from four starts, but he has improved each time, and the rail draw shouldn't be too much of an obstacle with his running style.
NIGHT AT THE OPERA contested the pace from the start when stretched out to make his dirt debut in the Oak Tree Juvenile, and while he eventually prevailed in that battle, he could not hold off the closing winner at the end. Like him turning back to a sprint in this spot.
BOOKIES LUCK may be a bit of a question mark over seven furlongs, but he has speed and is exiting a sharp score over Smokem last time.
Main: 1, 2, 6
Backups: None
Race 3: SOUND AND SILENCE upset a solid field in the Windsor Castle in his second career start, and he has since posted two more wins against stakes company overseas. He has run from both on and off the pace.
OUT OF THE FLAMES was run over late by Sound and Silence in her last start, but she has started out with some promise for top connections, and like that they reach out for a local rider.
DECLARATIONOFPEACE has never won on grass, but he has been placed in some pretty tough spots, and he was impressive in both his wins on a synthetic track.
I would prefer him at 5 1/2 or six furlongs, but I'll also use COUNT ALEXANDER as he turns back out of a pair of routes for a dangerous trainer. He was a very impressive winner of his career debut over a sprint distance.
Main: 5
Backups: 3, 8, 9
Race 4: I prefer the two fillies exiting Keeneland's Alcibiades, and will press HEAVENLY LOVE and PRINCESS WARRIOR in the Juvenile Fillies.
While I respect the undefeated Moonshine Memories, I'd rather give ALLURING STAR another chance in this race. She was no match for Moonshine Memories in the Chandelier, but she was picking up three-eighths of a mile while making just her second career start in that race, and she simply appeared to get tired in the late stages.
Main: 1, 3, 9
Backups: 7, 12
Race 5: LADY AURELIA is a talented filly and the horse to beat in the Turf Sprint. She has been impressive in all seven career starts, including the two losses, and she enters with a pair of lofty Timeform Ratings of 137 and 134 for her last two starts.
The two I'm most interested in using with her are DISCO PARTNER and HOLDING GOLD.
I'll back up with STORMY LIBRERAL and the five-furlong specialist PURE SENSATION.
Main: 1, 2, 3
Backups: 4, 12