Beer: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Oct. 10
The featured race Sunday at Belmont Park is a highly competitive running of the Grade 3 Knickerbocker for older turf routers, but that race is supported by several other interesting betting races. These are the races I am focusing on from a wagering perspective.
Race 3
#1 Gridley Here has reached something of a now-or-never position as he makes his seventh start of 2015. After a solid 3-year-old season in which he won both his starts over this track and trip, he has found himself taking on much tougher assignments as a 4-year-old. His last three starts have all come vs. stakes company, and he didn’t have an easy time of it in any one of the three. He was compromised by pace in both the Saginaw and the Evan Shipman, the latter of which was dominated up front with a slow-early, fast-late race shape, and he had little chance in the 14-furlong Birdstone behind Tacticus. He steps back into allowance company Saturday while returning to his favorite track and distance, and he is competitive vs. this group with his good race.
Race 7
#12 Front is taking a positive class drop that figures to serve him well in this spot. He has been holding good form while finding higher-priced optional-claiming competition a bit too tough, and he is the horse to beat in the first leg of the late pick four. #5 Make a Decision may prove to be a dangerous rival in this race, and he may offer more value as well. He was finally cut back to a better distance last time but was compromised by a far-outside post that caused him to drop out to last in order to save ground. Given a good ride after giving away that position, he finished up well into a quick final fraction while having no chance to catch the perfectly ridden winner. His new trainer, Mike Maker, has excelled with turf runners off the claim, winning at a high percentage while posting a strong ROI from a large sample over the past five years, according to DRF Formulator – 45 for 159 (28 percent); $2.86 ROI.
Race 8
While #8 Reload is the horse to beat stepping back from stakes company, he has so far required having everything go his way in order to produce his best. #2 Notacatbutallama has had trouble finding the winner’s circle following a successful and underrated year as a 3-year-old, but he has spent the past two years holding his own vs. the likes of Lubash, King Kreesa, and Kharafa. He was game in defeat in his last two starts upstate, the latter of those going a distance beyond his best, and he can get the right trip in this race as he cuts back to a mile.