Beer: How I'd play Aqueduct on Thanksgiving
Aqueduct’s Thanksgiving card is, as usual, highlighted by the Grade 3 Fall Highweight for older sprinters. The supporting stakes race is the $150,000 Furlough for 2-year-old fillies.
Race 3
The Furlough has pulled a field of just five and is led by #5 Constellation, who is listed at even-money on the morning line. Second-best most recently in the Grade 2 Matron, with #1 Wave of Glory and #2 Tonasah behind her, she is well drawn on the outside with positional speed. She may well win this race at a short price, but she holds no discernible edge on figures and may be a vulnerable favorite.
Tonasah figures to revert to her front-running ways after getting bumped at the start of the Matron and has to be considered a threat, especially if she can get back to something like that 80 Beyer Speed Figure she earned when finishing a good second in the Adirondack Stakes in August. I’ll use her, but #3 Shayna Lady is going to be the focus of the play in this race. She couldn’t get the mile in her second start, but she ran very well when getting the best of a fast duel in her debut and was a convincing winner when cut back to a sprint last time by her red-hot trainer.
Race 8
The speedy mare #7 La Verdad is in the running for an Eclipse Award, and a win vs. males in the Fall Highweight might be enough to put her over the top in the filly-and-mare sprint division. She cuts back to a better distance for this after failing to secure a clear stretch lead in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, which was a furlong too far, and she may play out as the main speed in this race. Her presence puts the pressure on the other speeds in the race, as she is undefeated in her career when leading to the pace call over six furlongs.
#6 Salutos Amigos has proven over and over again to be a cut below true Grade 1 sprinters, but he fits well in this kind of race and figures to be hard to hold off late as he defends his Fall Highweight title for David Jacobson. The newcomer with whom I want to take a shot against the two favorites is #3 Pulling G’s. A sparingly raced 5-year-old, Pulling G’s has always shaped with the ability to be effective at this level. He matched his career-top Beyer when burying today’s rival #4 Fabulous Kid last time, and that horse returned to win his next start with a figure of 100. Pulling G’s has a versatile running style that will serve him well in this spot, and he should offer plenty of value as the lone entrant without prior stakes experience.