Beer: How I'd play Aqueduct on Sunday, Nov. 8
Sunday's card at Aqueduct features a pair of maiden special weight races for 2-year-olds, the fourth on dirt and the ninth on turf, that appear to be interesting wagering events.
Race 4
Five of the nine 2-year-olds entered in this seven-furlong sprint have valuable prior experience, though none of them has come close to reaching the Beyer Speed Figure par of 82 for this kind of race. Morning-line favorite #3 Condo King might be most eligible to improve as he makes his first start since an early-season debut back in May at Belmont, but there is another second-time starter in the field who might have much more to offer here.
#8 True Belief debuted at Monmouth toward the end of September, where he earned a succinct chart comment – "outrun" – to go along with a Beyer of 4. There might be more to that story, however, as True Belief, a $435,000 purchase this year, actually found plenty of early trouble in that race, which was won by the impressive Pilot House. He will make his second start from a nice outside post and might be quite a bit better than he appears.
Race 5
#5 Sky Gem impressed in taking her turf debut last month at Belmont over a large field of maiden claimers. She earned a competitive speed figure for that effort despite enduring a less-than-perfect trip, and this looks like a good spot if she can come right back with a similar run.
Race 9
#1 R J Bentley is a well-bred newcomer for a trainer adept at winning with first-time starters on turf, and #2 Energy Policy is the obligatory Chad Brown toughie in this kind of race. The horse to bet, however, might be #6 Arctic Joy. Arctic Joy ran very well behind the promising Highland Sky first time out and did so despite winding up in tight along the rail at a crucial point in upper stretch of that race. Sent to Woodbine to try a $250,000 stakes race for his second start, he was unable to factor after being rated back and kept wide for much of the running. He is worth a bet at anything like his 8-1 morning-line odds.