Beer: How I'd Play Aqueduct for Monday, Feb. 20

Early pick four (races 2-5)

Race 2: No. 4 Lady Luciano is the horse to beat, and a must use, taking a significant drop in class with an adaptable running style. The other horse for me is No. 1 Picture Day. She is also dropping in class for this, and while her last effort was a bit of a disappointment, she did spend much of that race trying to rally along a dead rail.

Race 3: A field of five is set to go in the second leg, and the race is open to just about any of them. No. 4 Little Miss Business dropped to win here last month after losing her prior two races at this level, but they were both longer races and she is more effective sprinting. No. 1 Summer House returned from a long layoff on a big class drop and wired a field of $20,000 claimers on Feb. 2. Claimed by David Jacobson out of that race, she returns quickly while stepping back up in class, which seems a positive sign, and she has the back form to be competitive with this field.

Race 4: A weak field of six New York-bred maidens comes together in the fourth. I will stand alone with No. 3 Sister Steff, who ships up from Tampa with a trainer change to Mike Hushion. Sister Steff debuted going long on turf last month, raced greenly while outrun in the early stages, and then finished with interest through the stretch to finish fifth.

Race 5: I prefer No. 5 Fearless Dragon in the final leg, but will use No. 6 Kohlhase equally in the pick four. Fearless Dragon is getting significant class relief for his New York debut after stumbling at the start of the $400,000 Poseidon Stakes at Gulfstream Park last time out, while Kohlhase owns dangerous early speed on a class drop for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.