Beer: Belmont Gold Cup a make-or-break race in late pick four

While we await Saturday’s main event at Belmont Park, let’s kick off the weekend with a look at Friday’s late pick four, which covers races 8 through 11.

Race 8: True North Stakes

Holy Boss benefits greatly from the scratch of the speedy Private Zone and also from this cut back to six furlongs, which is a much better distance for him after making his first two starts of the year going seven furlongs. He looks like the main speed from the rail with Private Zone gone and may prove tough to catch.

Catalina Red and Always Sunshine look like up-and-comers in this division and enter this race off of the best races of their respective careers, and they also benefit from the scratch, but are backups in the pick four.

Race 9: New York Stakes

Trainer Chad Brown saddles three of the seven entered, but it is his Sea Calisi who figures to draw most of the attention following her eye-catching win in last month’s Sheepshead Bay. Expect her to be the key to many pick-four plays. She has room to move forward as a lightly raced 4-year-old, and if her stateside debut is any indication, she could be in line for a big year. Photo Call is a Grade 1 winner over this trip and could be used as a backup, but I would rather go to Guapaza for that role, as she has finished very well in her two starts for Brown, including a good run for second behind Sea Calisi last time.

Race 10: Belmont Gold Cup

Run over two miles with a field of 13 set to go, this may be the race to make or break many tickets. It is hard to lean on anyone with much confidence over this trip, but one horse I will use prominently is the French import Now We Can. He arrives with group-stakes credentials for a good trainer, has gotten in three races that show he can still race competitively following an extended layoff, and has won going as far as 1 13/16 miles.

Da Big Hoss may be the horse to beat, and I’ll cover him, but he is tough to want too short of a price on over this distance and has had perfect trips in each of his last two wins.

Others who will feature prominently in the play are Closing Bell, Silver Lime, and Biz The Nurse.

Race 11: $40K maiden claimer

If still alive to the finale, it will be with two main contenders and a pair of backups. The main ticket goes through Heavenly Sun and Rooftop View.

Heavenly Sun ran the best race of his career off the layoff last June and did so despite encountering some traffic trouble in the stretch. Forget about his last two races at Saratoga, where he was virtually eliminated at the start both times. This is the right spot if he is ready off the bench.

Rooftop View is logical as he drops in to face maiden claimers on turf for the first time after facing much tougher horses in his two starts this year.

The backups both exit the Belmont finale from May 21. Disco Bill may prefer shorter distances, but he lost all chance after completely missing the break. He has speed to use if he gets out cleanly. Summer by the Lake was making his turf debut and stumbled after clipping heels at the start before racing on gamely late in a much-improved performance.