Beer: Aqueduct pick four for Sunday, Nov. 22
Let’s look at Sunday’s late pick four, which features the $100,000 Key Cents for 2-year-old New York-bred fillies.
Race 6
First-time starters #5 Shagaf and #6 Manitoulin are both well bred and well connected, but debuting over a demanding one-turn mile is a tough ask for 2-year-olds. I’ll side with experienced runners, though not with likely favorite #2 Patrick’s Day, who closed late into a race that was collapsing last time while earning a Beyer Speed Figure (71) that comes in 11 points below par for this kind of race. #1 Party Barn chased and tired in a well-bet debut, but he is likely better than he showed over that sloppy track, and he will get Lasix and blinkers for his second start. #10 It’s All Relevant raced wide and finished gamely to just miss third behind the Remsen-bound Matt King Cole when back to dirt last month, and he has a nice post on the outside.
Main: 1, 10
Backups: 5, 6
Race 7
#2 Front takes a needed drop in class after doing his best but coming up short against better horses so far this year. I like that he has won three of his four prior starts over this turf course. #6 Make a Decision returns to the level of the reclaim by Linda Rice after knocking out his available allowance condition last time. They are the main two, with the closer #4 Runaway Posse and the underrated #10 Slew’s Brew being backups.
Main: 2, 6
Backups: 4, 10
Race 8
#1 Frosty Margarita ran too well to lose the Maid of the Mist over a flat mile last time, and this turnback figures to work for her. #7 Melodic also tried to get the mile of the Maid of the Mist and tired after giving brief chase. She was an easy winner over Frosty Margarita two starts back and may offer some value in this race.
Main: 1, 7
Backup: None
Race 9
#9 Revive and Revenge made the first run into a quick pace and stayed gamely to the end in an improved effort with blinkers added at the Meadowlands last time. The half-brother to the talented turf runner Hangover Kid lands in a good spot here. #7 Irish Filibuster has to stretch out, but he was in some traffic in a live sprint in his debut upstate. #5 Extinct Charm and #8 Dot Matrix finished close together when second and third in a similar event to close out the Oct. 31 card at Belmont, but there were no excuses for either of them, and they are going to take money in this spot.
Main: 9
Backup: 7