Beer: 2018 Kentucky Derby analysis
JUSTIFY enters this Derby as the favorite with some things working against him from a seasoning standpoint, but his overall talent seems undeniable and his three starts are all faster than anything most of his competition has managed to run. He did get loose on the lead when posting that top figure in the Santa Anita Derby, but he didn’t exactly walk up there, and he turned away one of the better horses in this crop with little fuss in the stretch. He takes on his biggest challenge to date in a full Derby field, but he has always been heading this way and has been handled with the utmost confidence by a trainer who knows what he’s doing.
VINO ROSSO showed promise early on while racing in close attendance to the pace, but he took things to another level when catching a fast pace to rally into in the Wood Memorial, and he emerged a clear-cut winner in that race with a figure that puts him in contention. Distance is no issue with his pedigree, and he projects to have plenty of pace to close into once again.
MENDELSSOHN is a real wildcard for top connections following his dismantling of the UAE Derby in his first start on dirt. He had the run of the race that day over an inside-speed-favoring track, and it was not a particularly strong group behind him, but it is hard not to be impressed with that run, and it’s not like his ability hadn’t previously been established. The price won’t be there, nor will the soft trip on the lead, but it would be no surprise to find that he is this good.
SOLOMINI one of the few in this field entering off a less-than-ideal trip in his final prep, as he was caught wide off a slow pace in the Arkansas Derby. He must up his game in this race. His best effort was arguably that unlucky disqualification in last year’s Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, when he was taken off the pace and rolled in the stretch. Similar tactics could lead to a step forward at a price.
