Beer: 2017 Belmont Stakes analysis

The third leg of the Triple Crown looms as an anticlimax, with the winners of the first two legs declining to participate, the undefeated Peter Pan winner taking a pass (despite having only three career starts behind him), and the news that 2016 juvenile male champ and Preakness runner-up Classic Empire won’t start because of a foot issue.

Where does that leave us? Well, on the positive side, it leaves us with a big field of 12 set to travel one full lap around Belmont’s main track, and with a morning-line favorite pegged at a tepid 7-2.

That favorite is Irish War Cry. Last seen giving way in Kentucky to finish a distant 10th, Irish War Cry has been one of the bigger enigmas of this 3-year-old class. He has won four of his six career starts, and he looked quite good when taking both the Grade 2 Holy Bull and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial while prepping for the Derby.

In between those two races, he totally bombed in the Fountain of Youth, leaving his trainer scratching his head. After rebounding in the Wood over a track that was very kind to his running style, he went into the Derby as one of the favorites and promptly disintegrated after chasing the pace up the backstretch.

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He is certainly fast enough to win this race, and he clearly has some ability, but he is a pretty tough sell as the favorite.

The wild card is the Japanese import Epicharis. The best of his generation (on dirt, anyway) in Japan, he was impressive in winning his first four starts with differing running styles. Sent to Dubai to race for a big purse in the Group 2 UAE Derby, Epicharis cut out all the pace, appeared to withstand a serious challenge from Thunder Snow in the stretch to hold his lead, and then got nailed on the wire to take a tough loss.

All in all, Epicharis has felt like the right new face to this group since it was announced that he would be shipped over to try the Belmont. After all, this stateside crop of 3-year-olds has not yet managed to sort itself out as we reach the end of the Triple Crown run, and he has plenty going for him based on form and running-style. I just wish I could shake the feeling that the UAE Derby was a race he should have won.

Tapwrit is another one of the shorter prices on the morning line at 6-1. He appeared to be progressing nicely for trainer Todd Pletcher before failing to fire in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his final Derby prep.

It might pay to be forgiving of his run at Churchill Downs, as he had severe trouble at the start, which left him out of position. He did the best he could with the trip and actually did well to wind up sixth.

The two horses I’ve ultimately decided to lean on in the Belmont are MULTIPLIER and GORMLEY, mostly because they will be more attractive prices on the board, though they both have other things going for them as well.

Multiplier is lightly raced, appears to handle distance without issue, and exits what may be an underrated try in the Preakness, where he tried to rally along the inside in the stretch and wound up getting in a bit tight.

His form is heading the right way, with paired-up Beyer tops ahead of this race, and with a fast pace projected for this Belmont, he may be one of the horses running at the end.

Gormley hasn’t developed the way one might want to see a top 3-year-old progress to this point in the season, but he faced a tough task in the Derby while stuck on a wide chase for the opening mile before giving way in the stretch. Distance is a big issue, but he showed that he can rate and then run in the Santa Anita Derby, and he is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field (he has two). EPICHARIS and TAPWRIT also merit consideration.