Bear on the Loose need only draw in to be factor in in Cameron Handicap

The progressive gelding Bear on the Loose needs a bit of luck to gain a starting spot in the Group 3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle Racecourse in Australia on Thursday evening.

As of Wednesday, Bear on the Loose was the only runner on the also-eligible list for the $170,400 Cameron Handicap at 7 1/2 furlongs. If he gets into the field of 16, he may be favored in what could be a vital race for a lucrative goal later this year.

The Cameron Handicap is part of the qualifying series for the $2.04 million Big Dance Stakes at a mile at Royal Randwick Racecourse in Sydney on Nov. 5.

Horses must finish first or second in qualifying races, and then have a sufficiently high handicap rating, to gain a berth in the 20-runner Big Dance Stakes, which is run at a mile.

Bear on the Loose, a 5-year-old Irish-bred gelding, has won 4 of 7 starts. Trained by Adrian Bott and Gai Waterhouse, Bear on the Loose was fourth by four lengths in a handicap at 1 1/8 miles at Randwick on July 12 in his last start.

The loss ended a three-race winning streak that included minor races at Epsom and Chester racecourses in Britain in the summer of 2023. Bear on the Loose won his Australian debut in a handicap at 1 1/8 miles at Rosehill Gardens Racecourse on June 29.

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Without Bear on the Loose in the Cameron Handicap, Here to Shock will be favored. Trained by the brothers Ben, Will, and J.D. Hayes, Here to Shock won the Group 3 BRC Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs at Doomben Racecourse in May, finished last of 18 in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap at June, and was second in a seven-furlong handicap at Caulfield Racecourse on Aug. 31 after a brief rest during the Australian winter.

With his group-level stakes win, Here to Shock will carry top weight of 130 pounds in the Cameron Handicap. Bear on the Loose will carry minimum weight of 119 pounds, if he starts.

The Cameron Handicap is part of an eight-race program that includes the Group 3 Newcastle Gold Cup at 1 7/16 miles. Redstone Well, winner of the listed CTC Cup at 1 1/2 miles at Randwick on Sept. 7, was a slight favorite in early betting over Etna Rosso and Touristic.

Etna Rosso was fifth by slightly more than two lengths in the Wyong Cup at 1 5/16 miles as the 2-1 favorite on Sept. 6. Touristic has been second in three consecutive listed or group stakes since late June.

The Newcastle program begins at 11 p.m. Eastern or 8 p.m. Pacific. Wagering is available through DRFBets.com.

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