Bayern would be heavy Derby Trial favorite if he runs
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
[bc_video_id:322252:]LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert entered two horses in the Derby Trial on the opening-night program Saturday at Churchill Downs, either of whom would be a decisive favorite if he ran.
But Baffert already has said that Chitu definitely will scratch from the Trial and instead run May 3 in the 140th Kentucky Derby. And it’s not beyond question that Bayern will scratch, too.
Baffert said he will wait as long as possible before playing his hand. He would like to run Bayern in the Derby but fears the colt won’t get in. As of Thursday, Bayern was 23rd on the points list for Derby eligibility, so Baffert must decide whether to roll the dice and hope defections will allow Bayern into the 20-horse Derby field or just go ahead and run the colt in the Grade 3, $150,000 Trial, which goes as the eighth of 10 races on a Downs After Dark card that starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.
Like the Derby itself, there are quite a few moving parts in the run-up to the Trial, although that’s about where the similarities begin and end. Unlike in bygone eras, when the Trial regularly was used as a final prep just four days out from the big race, the Trial now seldom produces a Derby starter, let alone the Derby winner, the last of those being Tim Tam in 1958.
Bayern, with Rosie Napravnik named to ride, would start from post 1 in this 90th running of the Trial, which is run out of the Longfield Avenue chute as a one-turn mile. The Offlee Wild colt was so well regarded off his first two races at Santa Anita, both easy wins, that he was made the 8-5 favorite two weeks ago in the Arkansas Derby, a race in which he contested the pace before fading to third, beaten 5 1/4 lengths by the victorious Danza.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Clearly, Bayern is the class of the Trial field and should be a very short price if he starts. But if he’s out, then suddenly the Trial is far more contentious, with Spot and Myositis Dan likely to assume roles as lukewarm favorites.
Spot, trained by Nick Zito, won the Grade 3 Swale at Gulfstream Park before beating just one opponent in the Florida Derby, while Myositis Dan, trained by Tom Proctor, ran second in back-to-back Gulfstream allowance sprints before winning a Keeneland allowance three weeks ago.
“My horse beat Danza at Gulfstream, so he can’t be that bad,” said Proctor, alluding to a March 1 allowance. “Some of those races down there didn’t play all that well in his favor. He ran decent over this track last fall. He drew a good post [on the far outside] for a flat mile, so there are some pluses for us in this spot.”
The rest of the Trial lineup is Big Sugar Soda, Friendswith K Mill, Matador, Embellishing Bob, Laddie Boy, and Bitters ‘n Bourbon.
Post time for the Trial is 10:01, with the 10th race set for 11:05. HRTV has live coverage throughout the night.