Australia: Nature Strip might have edge over Bivouac in Lightning Stakes at Flemington

Judging from the results of major sprint stakes in Australia in October and November, Bivouac is better than Nature Strip, at least at six furlongs.

Bivouac was second in the $10.7 million Everest Stakes at six furlongs at Royal Randwick in Sydney in October, with Nature Strip seventh of 12. In the Group 1 VRC Classic at the same distance at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne on Nov. 7, Bivouac and Nature Strip were first and second, separated by 3 1/4 lengths in a race worth $1.08 million.

The race scenario will be slightly different when they meet again in Saturday’s Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington. The Lightning Stakes is run at five furlongs, which appears to be a better fit for the speedy Nature Strip.

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Nature Strip, fourth in the 2020 Lightning, has won 7 of 12 starts at five furlongs, including the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Flemington in September 2019. Trained by Chris Waller, Nature Strip did win the Group 1 T.J. Smith Stakes at six furlongs at Randwick last April.

A 6-year-old, Nature Strip tends to set the pace, while the 4-year-old Bivouac runs from midpack. Nature Strip could be tough to catch in the Lightning, run on a straightaway course.

Trained by James Cummings, Bivouac is winless in two starts at five furlongs, both at the start of his career in 2018 and early 2019. Bivouac won 2 of 8 starts in 2020, with both wins in six-furlong Group 1 races.

The $580,200 Lightning Stakes is the eighth of nine races on a program that begins at 8:20 p.m., Eastern, or 5:20 p.m., Pacific, on Saturday. Wagering is available through DRFBets.com.

The Lightning Stakes drew a field of eight. Waller has two runners, including the outstanding 3-year-old filly September Run, a winner of 5 of 8 starts. September Run, who tends to run from off the pace, was unbeaten in three starts, all in stakes, in September and October.

September Run won the Group 1 Coolmore Stakes for 3-year-olds at six furlongs at Flemington on Oct. 31, finishing 1 3/4 lengths in front of Swats That, a filly who also starts in the Lightning Stakes.

The Lightning Stakes will be the first start against older horses for September Run and Swats That.

The race provides a stern class test for Elite Street, a 4-year-old gelding who has won 5 of 8 starts, all at tracks in Western Australia. Elite Street won the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot Racecourse in Perth in November.