Australia: Forbidden Love, I'm Thunderstruck dominate betting in Group 1 Doncaster Mile
The Australian filly Forbidden Love has had a busy campaign this year, compiling three stakes wins since late February.
The brilliant form has made Forbidden Love the 3-1 favorite in early betting for Saturday’s Group 1 Doncaster Mile against 19 rivals at Royal Randwick Racecourse in Sydney.
The $2.24 million Doncaster Mile is one of the most competitive handicaps of the year, and could easily meet expectations. As of Thursday, 4-1 I’m Thunderstruck was the only other horse in the field with a single-digit price.
Forbidden Love will be ridden by Jamie Kah, who won the 2021 Doncaster Mile on Cascadian, who is back in this field as an outsider.
Trained by Richard and Michael Freedman, Forbidden Love’s three-race winning streak consists of group stakes at Randwick ranging in distances from 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 furlongs. This will be Forbidden Love’s first start at a mile since a seventh in the 2021 Doncaster when she was beaten slightly more than 3 1/2 lengths at 9-1.
In each of her recent wins, Forbidden Love has closed from a stalking position under jockey Hugh Bowman, who is riding I’m Thunderstruck for trainer Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr.
:: Get free past performances, analysis, and picks for Australian racing
The Doncaster Mile is the first meeting between I’m Thunderstruck and Forbidden Love since they were first and 10th in the $5.64 million Golden Eagle Stakes for 4-year-olds at 7 1/2 furlongs at Rosehill Gardens last October, the final start of the year for both prominent runners.
I’m Thunderstruck is winless in three starts this year, but was a good second by 1 1/2 lengths to the heavily favored Zaaki in the $3.69 million All-Star Mile at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne on March 19.
The Doncaster Mile has such depth that the Kentucky-bred mare Lighthouse, winner of the Group 1 Coolmore Stakes for fillies and mares at 7 1/2 furlongs at Rosehill Gardens on March 12, was 19-1 on Thursday.
Cascadian was 30-1, having finished fifth in the All-Star Mile. Sacred Falls in 2013 and 2014 was the last two-time winner of the Doncaster Mile.
There are four Group 1 races on a 10-race program at Randwick that begins at 9:10 p.m. Eastern or 6:10 p.m. Pacific on Friday.
Nature Strip, the 2020-2021 Australian Horse of the Year, is a slight favorite to win the $1.87 million T.J. Smith Stakes at six furlongs for the third consecutive year.
Trained by Chris Waller, Nature Strip is winless in two starts since the Group 1 Darley Sprint Classic at six furlongs at Flemington last November. At the time, Nature Strip was in outstanding form, having won the $11.05 million Everest Stakes at Randwick in his previous start.
Nature Strip is winless in two starts this year at five furlongs, a nose defeat to stablemate Home Affairs in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Feb. 19 and a third by 1 1/4 lengths behind Eduardo and Shelby Sixtysix in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes on heavy turf at Randwick on March 5.
Eduardo (5-2) and Shelby Sixtysix (5-1) are well-regarded runners in the T.J. Smith Stakes.
A return to six furlongs may help Nature Strip as well as a heavy turf course. A winner of 19 of 36 starts, Nature Strip has won two of three starts on heavy turf in his career, including the 2020 T.J. Smith Stakes.
Hitotsu will be favored to win his third consecutive Group 1 race in the $1.49 Australian Derby at 1 1/2 miles. Trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Hitotsu has shown an ability to adapt to race distances in his last two starts. A winner of 3 of 7 starts, Hitotsu won the Group 1 Victorian Derby at 1 9/16 miles at Flemington last October in his final start of the year, and his first race of 2022 in the Group 1 Australian Guineas at a mile at Flemington on March 5.
Regal Lion, third in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby at 1 1/2 miles on March 5, is rated as the most significant threat to Hitotsu.
The $749,000 Inglis’ Sires Stakes for Southern Hemisphere 2-year-olds at seven furlongs is led by the filly Fireburn, who closed with a tremendous rush to win her fourth consecutive start in the Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes at six furlongs on heavy turf at Rosehill Gardens on March 19.
Fireburn is part of a field of 12 in the Inglis’ Sires Stakes.