Ask Beyer: Why are Derby figures in decline?

In this new feature, Andrew Beyer and his associates will answer selected readers’ questions about Beyer Speed Figures. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. You may submit questions to askbeyer@drf.com or through the Beyer information page on the DRF website at drf.com/beyer.

Q: In your opinion, why have the Beyer Figures for 3-year-olds headed to the Derby dropped so far in the past decade to 15 years?

–Tony Mastropietro, Levittown, Pa.

A: The decline in speed figures earned by 3-year-olds in the spring has certainly been dramatic. The last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby produced winning Beyer Speed Figures of 103, 102, 103, 105, and 97. Twenty years earlier, in the period from 1994 to 1998, the winning figures ranged from a low of 107 to a high of 115 (Silver Charm.)

Our figures have not changed during this time. And there is little reason to believe that U.S. racehorses are in decline. In the last five years, horses such as Arrogate (122), American Pharoah (120), Shared Belief (115), and Bayern (113) have delivered outstanding performances in the latter part of their 3-year-old campaigns.

So why have speed figures in the Triple Crown series and the Kentucky Derby prep races been so low? I can offer a theory. For most of the Derby’s history, fitness and racing experience were essential for success on the first Saturday in May. Horses almost always had a solid foundation of experience as 2-year-olds. (Secretariat raced nine times at 2. Carry Back made an astonishing 21 starts as a juvenile before he went on to win the 1961 Derby.) Three-year-olds came into the Derby ultra-fit. Whirlaway ran in two major stakes in the nine days before the 1941 Derby – a common practice at the time.

In the modern era, of course, training styles have changed. Talented young horses are raced sparingly. They have short 2-year-old campaigns and may race only two or three times as 3-year-olds before the Derby. Their final prep race may be scheduled four or five weeks before the Derby (an unthinkable idea for old-time trainers). Justify was unraced at 2 and made only three starts prior to his sweep of the 2018 Triple Crown. He was a brilliant talent, but with so little experience he couldn’t have been expected to run as fast as great 3-year-olds of the past had done in the spring classics. That’s the reason his figures in the Triple Crown were so low – 103, 97, 101.

–Andrew Beyer