Ask Beyer: Projected figures carry equal weight

Q. Beyer Associates must on occasion “project” a figure, given the pace dynamics of a race. Considering that a projected figure carries much less weight than one generated by data, is there a way to distinguish the differences in the past performances, such as italic type or a font that’s not in boldface?

–Tony Bleill, Champaign, Ill.

A. Your question is a good one, but what you suggest is something we would never do.

There are various circumstances when the final time of a race is so fast or so slow that a true speed figure would make no sense and would only mislead our readers. In such cases we project a figure – we assign the race a number that does make sense and properly reflects the ability of the horses in the field.

Aberrant times can arise when the inherent speed of a racing surface changes during the course of a card, for no apparent reason. (Track superintendents can speed up a track significantly by watering it more heavily than usual.) They can arise when the track’s timing system misfires. They can occur when the early pace of a race is so slow that the horses cannot possibly accelerate to produce a meaningful final time. This is a common scenario in turf races.

What should a figure-maker do with a race such as the 2020 Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf? Starship Jubilee, a Grade 1 stakes winner, captured the event at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 18, running 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.57. One other race was run on the card under the identical conditions (with the rail setting at zero). It was a $16,000 claimer, and the winning time was 1:41.66. In the Beyer system of numbers, the claiming race was 11 points faster than the stakes. The claimers figured to run a figure of 83 (at best), which would make Starship Jubilee’s figure a 72. Not only would the mare be running 30 points below her best form, but every other member of the field would be regressing 15 to 20 points. Obviously, a winning figure of 72 would be inconceivable.

The explanation for this anomaly was obvious. Starship Jubilee was allowed to set a crawling pace, running the first six furlongs in 1:14.66, three full seconds slower than the fraction for the claimers. Mark Hopkins, my partner who makes the Gulfstream figures, didn’t hesitate to project the figure as a 93. This was below the winner’s top efforts, but it gave figures to the seven fillies behind that were in line with their previous form.

Should we have put the figure for the race in italics because it “carries less weight than one generated by data?” The answer is no. Our aim is to publish numbers that accurately define horses’ ability and will therefore be useful to our readers. A projected figure that accomplishes these aims does not deserve to be stigmatized. And a preposterous figure is no less preposterous if it is “generated by data.”