Ask Beyer: Ensuring accuracy in 4 1/2-furlong figures

Q. Why are there 4 1/2-furlong figures for some tracks, like Laurel, but not for others, such as Keeneland and Gulfstream?

— Tony Bleill, Champaign, Ill.

A. Keeneland and Gulfstream are unique cases. Keeneland starts its 4 1/2-furlong races from a chute that angles to connect with the main track. The chute is not used for any other races, so we have no way to judge if the chute was fast or slow on a given day. If we were to calculate our figures under the assumption that the chute is always as fast as the main track, we discovered that we would make some big, bad errors. We could not be confident in speed figures for these races.

In 2014, Gulfstream started carding 4 1/2-furlong races in place of the traditional five-furlong races for 2-year-olds. These events did not start at the 4 1/2-furlong pole, nor end at the traditional finish line. The horses traveled about 4 3/4 furlongs, and the Trakus timing system calculated the official 4 1/2-furlong time. We made figures for these races for a few weeks in the summer of 2014, but the numbers appeared inaccurate. We not only stopped publishing them, but took the unprecedented step of expunging all of the previously published figures.

These are exceptional situations. If we have proper data, we will fearlessly publish figures for any distance at any track, whether it’s 3 1/2 furlongs at Northlands Park or “about 6 1/2 furlongs” at Timonium.

– Andrew Beyer