Ask Beyer: Do horses' figures rise with the tide?
Q. A horse runs in an optional-claiming race and gets a figure of 72. Next, the trainer takes a shot in a stakes to help the track fill the card. The winner runs a 95, and our horse finishes last but gets a new high Beyer of 79.
I call that the “suck along” number. Is this in the character of horses to try to keep up with much better runners?
–Gordon Osborne, Louisburg, N.C.
A. Were you a harness bettor at some time in your life? What you describe is a phenomenon well known in harness racing.
Because wind resistance is such a big factor in the sport, trotters and pacers regularly line up in single file, and an overmatched horse on the tail of this line, shielded from wind, may record a fast final time that he could not duplicate in a competitive race.
In my opinion, such scenarios do not arise in Thoroughbred racing. Horses do not get any tactical or psychological advantage by racing against superior rivals. Horses will often earn worse-than-usual figures if they are overmatched. If a horse possesses a modicum of speed and tries to chase high-class speedsters, he may tire so badly that he runs a disastrously bad race. And if a horse is trailing the field in the stretch, his jockey may not bother to urge him as he would if the horse were battling for the lead.
To return to your example: If a horse runs a figure of 79 finishing last in a stakes, and then drops into a more realistic spot where 79 is the top figure, I would not hesitate to bet him.