Ask Beyer: COVID-19 having an impact on some figures, too
Not long after past performances for Saratoga’s opening day appeared on the DRF website, I received a call from a handicapper who declared: “You have a bad mistake on the figure for Queen Arella in the Schuylerville Stakes.”
I cringed. We hate making errors anywhere, let alone on one of the most high-profile racing days of the year. But my caller’s evidence appeared correct. Queen Arella had won her debut at Gulfstream Park impressively, by four lengths, but her figure was a paltry 44. My caller had looked at the Beyer Speed Figure data in DRF Formulator and saw that the 2-3-4-5 finishers behind Queen Arella had each improved by 20 points or more in her subsequent start. This is the type of evidence that will often lead us to conclude that a figure is erroneous and change it retroactively.
However, I looked further at the Gulfstream data and found this: On May 29, when Queen Arella ran, there was another five-furlong race on the Gulfstream card, for $12,000 claimers. The winner, Combination, was clocked in 57.16 seconds and earned a figure of 84. Two races later, Queen Arella covered the same distance in 59.54.
The 2.38 second difference between the two races equals 40 Beyer points -- thus the figure of 44 for the latter race. The speed figure was apparently correct. But why has everybody in the field improved so dramatically?
I make the speed figures for Southern California, and I was perplexed all spring by the low numbers for 2-year-olds running 4 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita. Our calculations for such races had always made sense in the past -- the average for open maiden special weight 2-year-old races from 2016 to 2019 was 66. But this year most juveniles ran significantly slower.
Play Saratoga with DRF! Visit our Saratoga shop for DRF PPs, Picks and Clocker Reports:
On May 25, a colt named Hendavid won an open MSW race with a stunningly low figure of 36. But as in the case of the Queen Arella race, all of the horses in the field improved when they ran again. The 2-3-4-5 finishers increased their figures by an average of 20 points.
What is happening? COVID-19 is happening. The pandemic has, of course, disrupted racing across the country, causing extended cancellations as well as uncertainty about future racing schedules. Trainers of 2-year-olds may have felt that there was no reason to subject their youngsters to hard training with the future in doubt. If 2-year-olds made their racing debut with less preparation that they would have in a normal year, they might reasonably earn poor figures and then improve significantly with the benefit of racing experience. That’s my theory. In any case, handicappers should be a little cautious in evaluating 2-year-olds who have begun their careers with an abnormally low figure, and we should be alert to the possibility of sudden improvements.
Postscript: Queen Arella reportedly injured a foot while running fifth in the Schuylerville Stakes,earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 42.