Ask Beyer: Charlatan top dog for Derby – for now

Q. Will Beyer Speed Figures in May 2020 be helpful for handicapping a September 2020 Kentucky Derby?

– Hugh Ernstberger

A. Over a four-month period, a lot can happen to 3-year-old racehorses. They can improve dramatically, they can regress, they can be compromised by injury, so it would be unrealistic to make a forecast for the rescheduled Derby on the basis of speed figures earned in the spring. Nevertheless, the early season performances by Charlatan could well point out the 2020 Derby winner. He recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 106 in his first two career starts at Santa Anita – better than any member of his generation. A 106 would have been good enough to win any Kentucky Derby since Big Brown’s victory in 2008.

But the historical norms of the Kentucky Derby may not be relevant on September 5, 2020 at Churchill Downs. Running 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May has always been a test of horses’ fitness as well as their raw talent. In an era when trainers campaign their horses sparingly, colts now come into the Derby with preparation that would have been deemed grossly inadequate for most of the race’s history. Over the last 15 years, the winning speed figures in the Derby have been mediocre, because the lightly raced entrants don’t have the seasoning to deliver great performances.

This evidence does not necessarily mean that U.S. Thoroughbreds are in decline. In 2016 Arrogate was a late bloomer who missed the Derby but earned a speed figure of 122 winning the Travers Stakes in August. American Pharoah’s Triple Crown victories in 2015 were unexceptional, from the speed-figure standpoint, but he recorded a 120 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in October. Thoroughbreds usually don’t reach peak form until the fall of their 3-year-old season – or later. If the winner of the 2020 Derby is not Charlatan, it is apt to be a colt who improves significantly in the second half of the year.