Ask Beyer: Analyzing Nutella Fella's Hopeful figure
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While I have never been one to put a lot of stock in Beyer Speed Figures, I find it hard to believe that you only gave my horse Nutella Fella a 72 Beyer in the Hopeful [Stakes at Saratoga]. It was just a matter of disrespect. You disrespected us because we are a small stable that upset the apple cart. I wonder if [second-place] Timberlake had held on what his number would have been. I promise you it would have been over 90. I hope my horse proves you wrong over and over.
Nick Beaver
Bell Gable Stable
Dear Nick,
I was at Saratoga to watch Nutella Fella’s win. He made an exciting last-to-first rally, and it was satisfying to see a lightly regarded 54-1 shot beat the big stables that dominate New York racing day after day. Congratulations.
But this has nothing to do with speed figures. Our numbers are based strictly on data – the final time, the distance, and the speed of the racing surface as we calculate it. Fast times produce high speed figures. Slow times produce low ones.
p>My colleagues and I were as surprised as you by the low figure for the Hopeful, because several horses (including the favorite Timberlake), had previously earned figures in the upper 80s. But the time of the race, 1:24.41 for seven furlongs, was the slowest in the historic event since 2000, and was the basis of the low figure.
We calculate our figures by analyzing all of the races on a day’s card. Nutella Fella’s performance will be better understood by a comparison with the other seven-furlong race on the day of the Hopeful, a $40,000 claiming race for older horses, a class for which the par (i.e. the average winning figure) is 92.
The winner, Swiftsure, captured that race by running in 1:22.66 – 1.75 seconds faster than the Hopeful. In our system, 1.75 seconds at seven furlongs equates to 21 Beyer Speed Figure points. Swiftsure’s number had to be 21 points higher than Nutella Fella’s. The 5-year-old Swiftsure had never before earned a figure higher than 90, so he and Nutella Fella were unlikely to merit lofty figures. When Mark Hopkins, our New York figmaker, finished his analysis of the card, Swiftsure had a 93 and Nutella Fella a 72.
Why did the 2-year-olds run such a slow final time? Most handicappers would probably agree on the explanation. The early pace of the Hopeful was grueling, with the first half-mile contested in 44.89 seconds, compared to 45.78 for the Swiftsure race. When the field passed the half-mile mark, the leaders were tightly bunched and the jockeys were pushing them hard. The hot pace took a toll on the leaders. Nine of the horses in the field wound up earning a lower figure than their previous start. Timberlake managed to hold on for second but earned a figure of 69. While this battle for the lead was raging, Nutella Fella managed to stay clear of it. He broke tardily, trailed the field, and then swooped past the enervated leaders in the stretch. He was the only colt in the field to improve on his past figures. But he’ll have to improve upon his 72 if he wants another moment of glory.
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