Arlington Handicap distance within War Dancer's comfort zone
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ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Short fields can be the trickiest races to ride and figure, and the Arlington Handicap is shaping up that way.
At most, the Grade 3, $200,000, 1 1/4-mile Handicap will have six runners, and if Mister Marti Gras’s connections decide to run in the Stars and Stripes instead, there will be just a quintet. The race should be slow-paced and tactical, and anyone could win.
War Dancer probably will be favored, but how narrow is his margin for error? In a similar spot last time, albeit over 1 1/2 miles, War Dancer won the Louisville Handicap at Churchill by a mere nose. But at least he won. The Louisville was his first victory since War Dancer scored his biggest win, taking a blanket finish from Charming Kitten and Jack Milton in the rich Virginia Derby last summer at Colonial Downs.
Coincidentally, that was War Dancer’s only race before Saturday at 1 1/4 miles, and his losses in shorter races can be attributed to the horse’s need for distance, trainer Ken McPeek said.
“I don’t think a mile and a sixteenth, a mile and an eighth even, sets up for him at all,” said McPeek. “We always have traffic problems. He’s a mile-and-a quarter, mile-and-a-half horse, and he’s in his niche now.”
War Dancer raced close to a dawdling tempo in the Louisville, and there could easily be a walking pace Saturday, too. The horse who seems almost certain to dictate terms is Avanzare, who might or might not be good enough to take advantage.
A 4-year-old by Grand Reward, Avanzare came off the bargain rack as a yearling, selling for just $1,100 at auction before being purchased as a 2-year-old for $52,000. Trainer Tom Proctor has proceeded conservatively with Avanzare. He won his debut last fall at Churchill, a two-turn turf race, by almost three lengths and came back with a five-length Tampa Bay Downs turf score. But only after five more allowance starts – three seconds before two recent wins – does Proctor give Avanzare a shot in a stakes. The timing could be perfect.
Mister Marti Gras, at 7, is the field’s oldest runner, but he looked as sprightly as ever in scoring a sharp allowance win on this course June 21. That race came at 1 1/16 miles, and Mister Marti Gras probably better suits this 10-furlong trip.
“He’s really doing well right now,” said trainer Chris Block, backed up by a bullet half-mile Polytrack drill July 5.
Admiral Kitten won the Grade 1 Secretariat on this course last summer but has finished ninth, fifth, and seventh in his three starts this spring and summer.
“He hasn’t had much luck,” said trainer Mike Maker. “We know he likes Arlington and the distance.”
Finnegans Wake and Infinite Magic also have shown a fondness for the local grass. Finnegans Wake is winless since 2012 but finished a close fourth last summer in the Arlington Million. Infinite Magic won the 2013 American Derby but has been off form for his last three starts, including his 2014 debut last month at Belmont.
Statebreds fit well in marathon
An Illinois-bred has an excellent chance of winning the Grade 3, $150,000 Stars and Stripes – but will it be Suntracer or The Pizza Man?
Suntracer has a much more substantive history in long-distance races like the 1 1/2-mile Stars and Stripes, but there’s a decent chance The Pizza Man can see out the trip, and he might hold a tactical edge in a paceless race.
The Pizza Man is no front-runner, but with a pace void Saturday, he figures either to inherit the early lead or sit close to what should be a glacial pace. Suntracer, meanwhile, always seems to be rallying late, regardless of how slow the leaders go.
The Pizza Man actually trailed Suntracer into the stretch in the 2013 Stars and Stripes, where The Pizza Man was third and Suntracer second, but that was a result of pilot error, and The Pizza Man has enough pace to track a legitimate middle-distance tempo, to say nothing of a slow 12-furlong gallop. And The Pizza Man wins – a lot. He has won 10 of 14 career starts on grass, and while several of those triumphs came in Illinois-bred competition, The Pizza Man has the feel of a horse with more to give. He might give it Saturday.