Arizona's best more than good enough in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

ARCADIA, California – Fourteen young horses with a short run to the first of two turns, plus the generally complicating factor of 2-year-olds growing, changing, progressing literally every day.

Seems like the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, to be run for the 13th time on Friday at Santa Anita, ought to be a caldron of chaos.

Maybe the best idea is to keep it simple.

There have been 12 Juvenile Turfs and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won four of them. O’Brien and his owners the Coolmore organization won the race the last time it was in California, with Mendelssohn at Del Mar in 2017, and won it with George Vancouver at Santa Anita in 2012. Ryan Moore was aboard all four of O’Brien’s Juvenile Turf winners, and Friday he pilots a colt for O’Brien named Arizona, the likely race favorite – and most likely winner.

Arizona has a relatively tough draw in post 12, but the gate habits and pace to overcome it. Arizona has a history of breaking hard and fast. He does not need the lead to race effectively, but he doesn’t mind having it, either. Arizona went to the front Oct. 12 in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes over a straight seven furlongs at Newmarket and proceeded to give Pinatubo, Europe’s best 2-year-old, a real tussle when the odds-on Dewhurst favorite came to him a quarter-mile out. Pinatubo eventually pulled away to a two-length win, but no one had gotten that close to him before, and Arizona checked in nearly three lengths clear of the third-place finisher, turning in easily the best single performance of any horse in Friday’s race.

That was not a one-off showing, either. Arizona, despite being a sizable specimen, developed early and won the Group 2 Coventry Stakes over six furlongs at Royal Ascot in late June. By No Nay Never, Arizona gets a dose of stamina from his dam, Lady Ederle, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner English Channel. Arizona hasn’t raced beyond seven furlongs, and Mendelssohn, O’Brien’s last Juvenile Turf winner, had been a mile before coming to California. But Mendelsson, like Arizona, ran a good race while not winning the Dewhurst, as did George Vancouver in 2012. And George Vancouver’s pre-Breeders’ Cup form looked a lot like Arizona’s, with a series of six- and seven-furlong starts.

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Vitalogy once resided in the Irish training yard of O’Brien’s son Joseph, but following a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine his new ownership group turned him over to trainer Brendan Walsh in Kentucky. Vitalogy, a sharp debut winner and a solid fourth in the Group 3 Acomb overseas, raced from the back of the field at Woodbine and took several midstretch bumps rallying to finish third in the Summer.

His Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland yielded a close second-place finish with an even better performance. Saddled with post 14, Vitalogy finished full of run after his bad draw forced him to race from last and make his first move while four wide on the far turn. Vitalogy has trained with aplomb at Santa Anita and Walsh, pleased with post 5, believes his horse is ready for another step forward under Javier Castellano.

Peace Achieved was saved by the wire winning the Bourbon, but make no mistake, the colt has been rock solid since trainer Mark Casse added blinkers and stretched him from sprints to routes in July. Peace Achieved already has won two rich stakes this fall, and his tactical speed can help keep him out of trouble.

Decorated Invader, “an impressive-looking horse,” trainer Christophe Clement said, races on Lasix for the first time after winning the Summer, where he took a solid step forward in his third start. Decorated Invader, a stalking-pressing type, has a long, route-shaped body and should continue to improve over time and distance.

Structor could give trainer Chad Brown his first Juvenile Turf win if he improves from a win in the Pilgrim Stakes.

“He’s a straightforward horse who, on the numbers, needs to get a little faster,” Brown said. “Watching him train, I think that’s possible.”

Andesite finished second in the Pilgrim while failing to run straight and immediately accelerated when clearing traffic in midstretch.

The local Juvenile Turf prep, the Zuma Beach, usually means little for the Juvenile Turf yet its first three finishers – Hit the Road, War Beast, and Billy Batts – are in Friday’s race. Hit the Road easily is the most talented of that group and was visually impressive closing strongly to win the Zuma Beach, but he drew terribly in post 14 and might not be good enough to overcome that.

War Beast should be a pace factor along with Arizona, Peace Achieved, the maiden Gear Jockey, and Graceful Kitten. The latter ships from Gulfstream Park, where he’s won all three of his starts, leading all the way in his last two. These horses probably are too tough for him.

Gear Jockey is winless but talented and not out of superfecta consideration, while a second O’Brien horse, Fort Myers, appears a notch below Arizona but isn’t out of the question for a placing. Our Country has been launching mild rallies in New York and figures twice his 15-1 morning-line odds. Proven Strategies, a fading fourth in the Summer, completes the field.