Aragona: Belmont Park late pick four for Saturday, June 1, 2019

The late pick-four sequence at Belmont on Saturday begins in race 6 and includes the featured eighth race, the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge. That stakes is an intriguing affair, yet it’s actually one of the more straightforward events in an otherwise-daunting quartet of races. Given the difficulty of this sequence, it will be necessary to spread in a few legs and adopt a more targeted approach in others. To accomplish this goal, I’m using the ABC method, which you can try out using DRF TicketMaker.

Race 6 – Claiming $25,000

Races don’t get much more complicated than this. My best guess is that Patriot Drive (3) winds up as the favorite as he is at least coming in off a win, albeit on dirt. He was the surprising favorite in that off-the-turf event, where he barely got the job done over Bitumen. He has prior turf form that would make him a player here, and that last effort on dirt suggests that he may be in very good form for Danny Gargan. I’m using him, but there are many ways to go in this spot.

Both Tom Morley horses are somewhat interesting, though I prefer Zinger (8). This 5-year-old has not gotten many opportunities on turf during the past year, but he’s performed well when given the chance. He outran his 100-1 odds to be a close sixth against a much tougher optional-claiming field last December and then ran on well for third at a more appropriate level in March. If he repeats either of those performances, he has a big chance to win this. I could also make a case for bigger prices like Catch a Cab (1) and Shamcat (9), but I’ll relegate them to C’s for pick-four purposes.

My top pick is Sycamore Lane (7). This 8-year-old gelding disappointed in his prior start at Aqueduct, finishing a dull sixth after a decent trip. He was perhaps a little too far back early, but he never showed the kind of acceleration he’s been capable of producing in the past. However, some things are different now. Bill Mott has had him back in New York for two months, he’s adding blinkers, and he gets a switch to leading rider Jose Lezcano. More importantly, he appears to be working very well coming into this race.

Having watched this horse over the past few seasons, he touts himself in his workouts. He did so during the last two summers at Saratoga before running well up there, and he appears to be doing so now. Sycamore Lane’s workout times this winter at Payson Park were dull, but he’s coming into this race off a series of bullet drills, notably accomplished on some very busy mornings on the training track. I typically wouldn’t ignore a horse’s poor recent form without an apparent excuse, but I get the feeling that this gelding is heading in the right direction once again. At anything close to his best, he’s certainly good enough to take down this field.

A: 7
B: 3,8
C: 1,2,9,10

Race 7 – Claiming $40,000

The scratch of Happy Farm leaves Reed Kan (2) as a possible favorite. This horse was alarmingly dead on the board prior to his last start, and he showed none of his typical early speed before backing up. Now he returns at a lower class level with just one workout showing in the past month. I’m wary of this guy and felt that Happy Farm was a far more trustworthy option at a short price.

My top pick and only A in this race is Still Krz (5). This 7-year-old has not been in the best form recently, but I think he started to show signs of life last time in his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo. The chart comment notes that he “beat the gate,” but it certainly did not help him. He actually hesitated after taking a stutter-step and was off a length slowly. He then had to rush up to take the lead through honest fractions before fading. Seven furlongs has always been a stretch for him, and he should appreciate the cutback to six. He showed that he still possesses early speed last time, and he’s faster than these horses early if Eric Cancel allows him to run freely. Still Krz fits at this class level and is good enough to beat Happy Farm if his last race is indeed the beginning of a form reversal.

I don’t trust Reed Kan, so I’ll elevate Big Bella Brown (1) and Take Your Place (6) to share B status with him. I’m not a fan of either runner, but I could envision a scenario in which either one is successful if the two aforementioned contenders fail to show up.

A: 5
B: 1,2,6
C: ---

Race 8 – Pennine Ridge (G3)

Both of Chad Brown’s runners in this Pennine Ridge are making their stakes debuts, and the one who figures to attract the most support is Value Proposition (1). This British-bred son of Dansili has made only one start, but it was a special performance. He launched a sweeping move from far back to easily take over at the top of the stretch and fended off a serious challenge before drawing off late. He was even somewhat green in the lane, ducking down to the rail late while continuing to widen his advantage. He earned a speed figure that suggests he can make this transition into graded stakes company, but he’s facing a pretty salty group in just his second career start.

In terms of expected value, I actually prefer Brown’s other colt, Demarchelier (3). He hasn’t run as fast or won as stylishly as his stablemate, but I like the way this grinding son of Dubawi finishes off his races. I get the sense that we haven’t seen the best of him yet, and he figures to be the biggest price of the main contenders. Demarchelier appears to be working particularly well ahead of this race, though he is unproven over less-than-firm ground. Both Brown runners will be B’s for me.

I’m using both of these runners, but I think Todd Pletcher’s entrants are just as appealing. Social Paranoia (4) is the classier of the two, coming off a solid third-place finish in the Grade 2 American Turf. He signaled that he had returned as an improved 3-year-old with that impressive maiden score two back, and he backed up that performance behind Digital Age last time. However, now he must stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and I'm somewhat concerned about him getting the distance. Social Paranoia possesses good tactical speed, but I would assume that he will allow his stablemate Clint Maroon to set the pace. Others are more appealing.

Clint Maroon (5) is my top pick and the only A in this race. I don’t think this son of Oasis Dream will have any problem handling the distance given his strong finishing ability. He had everything his own way up front in the Woodhaven last time, but he also leveled off and finished the race with a ton of power. This gray gelding doesn’t need the lead, but he’s awfully difficult to run down when he’s allowed to set the pace. A little rain Thursday should have softened the turf courses a bit, and he loves some give in the ground. If he turns into the stretch with an advantage, I believe they will be hard pressed to run him down.

A: 5
B: 1,3
C: 4,7

Race 9 – Allowance N1X

The card concludes with another highly competitive affair. Something Joyful (5) is the logical favorite as she returns from the layoff. Jeremiah Englehart does very well with returnees in turf sprints, and she ran fast enough to win at this level in that December race. She did get a perfect trip that day, but her versatile running style tends to give her riders plenty of options. I’m using her as an A, but there are others to consider at better prices.

I thought Sadie Lady (7) ran fairly well in her turf debut last time. Making her first start as a 3-year-old, she made a wide move into contention on the far turn and held on decently to be fourth. She was passed late by She’s Dreamin (8), but I feel that Sadie Lady did more serious running and has greater upside.

Andarta (12) could lead this group early as she returns for Tom Albertrani. She was impressive in victory at Saratoga last summer, but the speed figure she earned is somewhat dubious, and I’m skeptical that she can repeat it. The opposite is true about Matzo Bella’s (6) maiden victory at Gulfstream. She only earned a 61 Beyer and an 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but a number of horses from that race have run significantly faster in their subsequent starts. Runner-up Bye Bye Nicky is a perfect example, as she came back to run an 84 Beyer and a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her next race. Overall, the eight horses other than Matzo Bella to run back out of that race have earned Beyers that are 26 points faster on average next time out. This filly may have shown much greater improvement off the claim than is apparent. It’s rare to get Jason Servis at a square price in a turf sprint, but I could see this filly getting somewhat lost in the shuffle. She’s an A.

A: 5,6,7
B: 8,12
C: 1,9,10,11

Breakdown:
$1 All A’s
$0.50 A’s with 1 B
$0.50 A’s with 2 B’s
$0.50 A’s with 1 C
Total Cost: $56.50