Aragona: Belmont Park early pick five for Saturday, June 29, 2019

The early pick five (races 1-5) appears to be manageable since you can narrow down most of these races to one or two key contenders. I will take a targeted approach to my ticket construction using the ABC method, which you can try using DRF TicketMaker.

Race 1 – maiden claiming $50,000

Skywriting (2) and Final Say (5) are both dropping in for a tag for the first time, and they are likely to attract support. Skywriting is the one with stronger credentials. He finished a good second going this distance at Aqueduct in April, earning a field-best 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He then got involved in a contested pace at Belmont and faded to fourth. The extra sixteenth of a mile of his last start probably didn’t help, but he was also badly overmatched between two stakes-bound runners, Highest Honors and Meet Me in L A. This drop in class is needed, and Jimmy Jerkens wisely removes the blinkers after they were ineffective last time out. I strongly prefer him to Final Say, who has never run a particularly competitive race and will be a short price due to the connections. Yet my top pick is a horse who has already raced for a tag.

Red Right Hand (4) drops to the $50,000 level after finishing second for $75,000 last time. He ran well that day but was unfortunate to run into Mental Model, who exploded with a breakout six-length victory. The winner was also on the rail for much of his trip, and that was clearly the place to be on May 19. Conversely, Red Right Hand was forced to chase outside throughout, moving three to four wide around the far turn before flattening out in the lane. He actually ran much better than that 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure indicates, and I think he can move forward in his second start at Belmont. He showed some promise as a 3-year-old in 2018, so he’s capable of running faster. He’s the lone A.

A: 4
B: 2,5
C: 3

Race 2 – optional claiming $40,000/N2X

The two main contenders are clearly Gambler’s Fallacy (2) and Everyonelovesjames (4). The former will attract support due to his connections. However, I think Gambler’s Fallacy has some things working against him in this short field. He’s a deep-closing type in a race that is not expected to feature a strong pace. Gambler’s Fallacy ran quite well in his most recent turf start in November at Aqueduct, but even if he returns in that kind of form, he may not be able to run down Everyonelovesjames. The Jonathan Sheppard trainee is coming off a very impressive six-length score in early June in which he sprinted through the lane after laying down moderate early fractions. He should get a similar setup here. The only minor concern is that he will have to stretch out to 1 1/16 miles on the inner course, which can be tricky for some horses. On the other hand, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a distinct pace advantage. I can’t find a reason to try to beat him, so he is my only A.

A: 4
B: 2
C: 1,7

Race 3 – maiden special weight

Daring Disguise (6) is obviously the horse to beat after showing improvement on the switch to turf. He made a strong late run to be second two back behind his stablemate Elektronic and then made a belated bid to be fourth in a fast race on June 6 that produced New York Stallion Series stakes winner Rinaldi. The early pace of that most recent start was fairly slow, indicated by blue color-coded pace figures, so Daring Disguise was against the flow of that race. I think this horse is going to appreciate the stretch-out to seven furlongs since the shorter trip just felt too short for him based on his prior dirt form. I believe he is clearly the most likely winner, but I’m not excited about his short price.

The other runners likely to attract support are less appealing. Qian B C (3) has had his chances since returning as a 3-year-old and is not guaranteed to appreciate the added distance of this race. Uncle Curly (1) would be formidable if able to recapture the form he displayed at Tampa this winter, but he has gone the wrong way since then. Therefore, I want to look for a new face.

I’m taking a shot with Linda Rice’s other entrant, Worth a Shot (2). This gelding made one start at Aqueduct last fall, and it came over the wrong surface. He was entered for turf, and the race got rained off the grass. He just never seemed comfortable racing over the main track, which makes sense considering that he’s a full brother to graded stakes-winning turfer Voodoo Song. Now he’s returning as a 3-year-old, and Rice has outstanding statistics in this situation. Everyone knows that she does a fantastic job with second-time starters, but she’s particularly effective when adding blinkers to second-time-starting maidens. Over the past five years, she is 13 for 37 (35 percent, $3.33 ROI) with that move.

A: 2,6
B: 1,3
C: 8

Race 4 – claiming $40,000

This is the leg where most players will single. Gleason (3) is the 3-5 favorite on the morning line, and it’s hard to look past him as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s run vastly superior speed figures in his first two starts of 2019, and seven furlongs appears to be his best distance. The drop is a concern given his ability to compete in tougher spots, but he’s a 4-year-old gelding who has clearly had some issues. There have been a number of gaps on his work tab since his last appearance, but that’s not enough to significantly downgrade his chances. I’m leaning heavily on him as the only A, with no Bs, but I do want to include a couple of others as minor backups. Spectator Sport (1) may appreciate a turnback off the claim for Antonia Arriaga, and Dark Money (6) showed significant improvement last time. I’ll use both as Cs.

A: 3
B: ---
C: 1,6

Race 5 – maiden claiming $40,000

Rhode Island (5) may finally win his maiden if he merely repeats his last effort, where he made a strong late run to fall just short of running down Labeq. It was good to see him get back on track after a pair of lackluster performances during the spring. However, he’s still not the most trustworthy type, and he’s already had plenty of chances to break through when he actually was in top form.

I’m using him defensively, but I prefer Strategic Outlook (8) at what figures to be a slightly better price. This horse has raced for a tag before, but at the tougher $75,000 level. Those races generally draw significantly tougher fields, so this is an actual drop in class. He was somewhat dull when he returned from the layoff at Aqueduct in April, but I thought he took a subtle step forward in his second start off the layoff last time. While it’s not noted in the short comment, this horse actually had some trouble coming to the top of the stretch. His rider, Luis Reyes, unwisely rode him into traffic as he attempted to move too soon, and Strategic Outlook had to alter course and got taken up, losing significant momentum at a critical point. He stayed on decently to be sixth, but he was never able to regain the speed he had lost. Now he’s getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and he’s facing the softest field he’s ever met. Trainer Leah Gyarmati rarely wins turf races, but that should only drive up the price on a horse who may be the most likely winner. While I prefer Strategic Outlook, I’ll use both of these main contenders as As to close out the wager.

A: 5,8
B: 7
C: 1,2,3

Breakdown
$1 All A’s
$1 A’s with 1 B
$0.50 A’s with 2 B’s
$0.50 A’s with 1 C
Total Cost: $50