Aragona: Belmont late pick four play for Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019

This sequence requires a diverse array of handicapping skills. It begins with a wide-open claiming race for older horses, proceeds into a 2-year-old maiden race dominated by firsters followed by the Grade 3 Athenia, and ends with a New York-bred maiden claimer. For those playing this sequence using the ABC method, I’ve listed my A, B, and C horses for each leg in the sequence following the analysis below.

Race 7: Claiming $32,000
This is one of the more confusing races on this card. The two runners likely to take the most money are Siding Spring (10) and Tusk (7), and I don’t have major problems with either of them. Yet, I also don’t completely trust anyone in this field, so I’m reluctant to accept short prices on these two. Siding Spring is perhaps more trustworthy as he makes his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. I thought he ran pretty well in defeat last time, hanging on until deep stretch against a solid starter allowance field. If he merely repeats that effort, he’s going to be tough. However, the Pace Projector is predicting that he could face a fast pace this time with Tusk serving as a potential early challenger. Tusk’s running style has completely transformed for Jorge Navarro, to the point where he’s not a run-off speed type. If he hooks up with Siding Spring in the early going, it could set it up for one of the longshots. The problem is that the rest of this field is pretty difficult to separate. Morrison (1) once would have been dangerous on this class drop, but his recent form is poor and Joe Sharp doesn’t have very strong numbers with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time. Lucky Ramsey (4) would be a player if he can run as well as he did off the bench last time, but I’m concerned that a flat mile is a bit short of his best distance. I think this race could produce a wacky result, so I’m taking a shot with LOCAL HERO (8), who might be the biggest price on the board. I thought this gelding ran pretty well when he won at Saratoga in July, beating a pair of next-out winners, one of which has returned to run much fast subsequently. Local Hero then got a less-than-ideal wide trip in that Aug. 3 affair and still only lost to Siding Spring by two lengths. He was claimed out of that spot by Dave Cannizzo and at first glance it might appear that his form has fallen apart for the new barn. However, I believe he’s just been placed in the wrong spots. He wanted no part of 11 furlongs two back, and then last time he was asked to sprint on dirt. Furthermore, both of those races came at a much higher class level. Now he’s dropping down into a realistic spot at the perfect distance, and he gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario. I believe he’s going to outrun his odds.

A: 8,10
B: 1,4,7
C: 2,3,9

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight
Regally-bred first time starter ORSAY (6) is likely to go off as a heavy favorite in this 2-year-old maiden race in which six of the seven runners are first-time starters. This filly is by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who is off to a nice start at stud, winning at 17% with 2-year-old firsters in this country. Her dam, Life At Ten (8 for 22, $1.2 million, 101 Beyer), was a multiple Grade 1-winning router who took down the Ogden Phipps and Beldame during her career. Her best foal is Singing Bullet, who was 3 for 11 and earned a 95 Beyer on dirt. Chad Brown can be overbet in these spots, but Orsay has been working very well during the past month and doesn’t appear to be meeting the strongest field in her unveiling. This $1.2 million yearling seemingly has talent. I’m using her prominently, but I also want to strongly consider Princess Pao (1), who debuts for Michelle Nevin. Her sire Sky Kingdom was a graded stakes winner going 12 furlongs on dirt during his racing career, and is 1 for 15 with 2-year-old firsters so far as a stallion. The dam (5 for 24, $394k, 103 Beyer) was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and placed in a number of graded stakes. She is a half-sister to Torrent (3 for 19, $311k, 87 Beyer), who is a solid dirt sprinter. Michelle Nevin’s runners sometimes need a start, but this filly looked pretty good outworking a mate on Oct. 11. She’s my primary back-up, but I would also include horses like Bells of War (2), Summer Fortune (4), and Barista Vixen (5) on deeper tickets.

A: 1,6
B: 2,4,5
C: 3,7

Race 9: The Athenia (G3)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite SIMPLY BREATHLESS (1), who just appears to have found the right spot as she makes her New York debut for California trainer Neil Drysdale. West Coast shippers are often overmatched when they ship east for major stakes, but this filly is catching an unusually weak field for a graded stakes event. She got a great trip to win the Wilshire at Santa Anita during the summer and she was just placed in some tougher spots after that. She couldn’t quite get the longer distance of the Modesty two back, but it turns out that losing to Juliet Foxtrot is no disgrace, considering that rival’s subsequent Grade 1 placings. Last time out at Kentucky Downs, Simply Breathless was racing over a course that had gotten very speed-favoring, and she was unable to reel in a couple of classy rivals. She didn’t get the smoothest trip through the stretch that day, as Geroux had to wait in traffic and tried to find room inside. I like this rider switch to Joel Rosario, who should be a perfect fit for this filly, and Drysdale’s runners tend to show up in these situations. Two of her main rivals are exiting an optional claiming race at Belmont on September 22. Sweet Bye and Bye (3) was impressive in victory that day, but she got a very soft trip on the front end, setting very slow fractions before sprinting home. Victorine (2) actually ran deceptively well in that spot, since she advanced outside and just couldn’t make up ground late into those sprint-like closing splits. I’d use both defensively, but I’m just not sure that either one possesses the quality to overtake a horse like Simply Breathless.

A: 1
B: ---
C: 2,3

Race 10: Maiden Claiming $40,000
Corey Scores (4) is going to be a heavy favorite in this finale and I don’t dispute that she’s the most likely winner. If she runs back to either of the speed figures she posted at Saratoga, she’s going to crush this field. However, her last race concerns me. She was chasing a moderate pace set by Winifred J and came up completely empty at the quarter pole. She was intended to do well that day as the 7-5 favorite and she threw in a clunker. I think it’s worth pointing out that she’s only run well going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, so I’m very worried that seven furlongs might just be too far for her, especially after she faded going a furlong shorter last time. Once you get past her, this race is pretty wide-open among the alternatives. I’m taking a shot with AMAZING ZERO (7) as she cuts back in distance. This filly ran deceptively well in her debut, as she overcame a slow start to rally well for third behind a couple of fillies who have gone on to do nice things in the last month. They tried stretching her out at the maiden special weight level last time and nothing went right. She broke slowly again, and this time she got very rank under Rajiv Maragh, tugging him up into the lead on the backstretch. She had nothing left at the quarter pole after that early move and he just let her fade through the pack. Now she’s dropping back down to the right class level and this seven-furlong distance should be more appropriate. If she can work out a decent trip this time, I think she’ll outperform her odds. Others to throw in on deeper tickets include Trumpit (1), Rousey (2), and Tatterazzi (11).

A: 4,7
B: 1,2,11
C: 9

The Play

$0.50 All A’s

$0.50 All A’s with 1 B

$0.50 All A’s with 1 C

$0.50 All A’s with 2 B’s

Total: $69