Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 30

The Cigar Mile conundrum

It’s usually a good idea to avoid betting on horses exiting Breeders’ Cup races. They are high-profile runners who peaked on the big day, and now they will be at miserly odds at something less than 100 percent.

Of course, there are exceptions such as Groupie Doll, who ran gallantly to miss by a nose in last year’s Cigar Mile. Coming off a second win in the Filly and Mare Sprint, Groupie Doll will try the boys again in a last hurrah.

But Groupie Doll did not recapture last year’s form until four weeks ago. Were she the only Breeders’ Cup runner to evaluate, the Cigar Mile would be complicated enough, but that is hardly the case. There are six others, all of whom are Grade 1 winners save for Laugh Track, who looks nicely suited to the distance after a fast-closing second in the Sprint.

So, even though another handicapping “rule” holds that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races, this may be a situation in which to focus on two 3-year-olds lacking that distinction – Clearly Now and Forty Tales, the one-two finishers in the Bold Ruler Handicap.

After winning the Swale Stakes, the well-traveled Clearly Now (and his backers) endured frustrating stretch runs in the Bay Shore, Woody Stephens, Charlie Barley, and Gallant Bob, all of which he lost by less than a length. Brian Lynch put blinkers on the colt for the Bold Ruler, and he responded with a career-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure.

Forty Tales lost that battle, but encouragingly, the dual Grade 2 winner showed newfound positional speed and posted a new top figure of 106, slightly above his wins in the Woody Stephens and the Amsterdam for Todd Pletcher.

Capo Bastone and Verrazano come off losses as well, but Cigar Mile history says it is unwise to dismiss any among Pletcher’s trio simply because of that. All four of the trainer’s winners – Stay Thirsty ($7.50, 2012), Purge ($53, 2005), Lion Tamer ($26, 2004), and Left Bank ($6.90, 2001) – had been defeated in their prior starts and then ran either a new top Beyer or equaled their previous best.

Repole has Demoiselle chalk

Mike Repole made the 2012 Thanksgiving weekend his own personal Breeders’ Cup, and he and Pletcher were rewarded with four stakes winners: Caixa Eletronica in the Fall Highweight Handicap, Unlimited Budget in the Demoiselle, Overanalyze in the Remsen, and Stay Thirsty in the Cigar Mile.

At press time, Caixa Eletronica was set to shoulder 132 pounds in defense of his title Thursday.

Otherwise, Repole’s best chance this weekend lies with Stopchargingmaria in the Demoiselle.

Coming off a lengthy front-end score in the Tempted Stakes, Stopchargingmaria will have an experience edge on Penwith, a last-out maiden winner for Kiaran McLaughlin. However, it’s possible that the two fillies could have a throw-down for the early lead, and Aqueduct’s main track has not been particularly kind to speed during the past couple of weeks. In fact, six of the nine racing days from Nov. 13-23 were tilted measurably toward closers, as one after another came rolling down the center of the track to get up in time.

McLaughlin eyes stakes

McLaughlin trained perhaps the two best 3-year-old fillies of 2012 in Eclipse winner Questing and Gazelle Stakes winner Dance Card, and his Wedding Toast, the likely favorite in the Comely, resembles both after four starts. Just like Questing, she won a one-mile first-level allowance at Belmont in 1:34 and received a 105 Beyer, and like Dance Card, she won the Belle Cherie overnight stakes at Belmont.

The Comely, formerly run in the spring, has essentially switched places on the stakes schedule with the Gazelle.

The Remsen is a compelling clash between Shug McGaughey’s Honor Code, the individual Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite, and McLaughlin’s Cairo Prince, who is 2 for 2 after taking the Nashua from post 12. Using those two in the multi-race exotics seems like sufficient coverage.