Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 16

MONEY MAKES THE MARE (AND EVERYONE ELSE) GO

Two weeks out from the Cigar Mile, handicappers can be forgiven for being somewhat confused by the prospective field.

In addition to receiving a $100,000 purse boost to $500,000 recently, the Cigar Mile was spiced with incentives to lure marquee horses: Grade 1 winners run for a winner’s share of a $750,000 purse, and Breeders’ Cup winners run for a winner’s share of a $1 million purse.

The upshot is that at least five horses that are Grade 1 winners and exiting Breeders’ Cup races are on the radar screen for the final Grade 1 race of the year in New York – Alpha, Capo Bastone, Goldencents, Groupie Doll, and Verrazano. So is Gentlemen’s Bet, who had a clear lead in the stretch of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint before winding up third.

As a general rule, it is sound counsel to avoid betting on horses coming out of Breeders’ Cup races, particularly so soon afterward. The assumption is the horses laid it all on the line in quest of the main objective and will be “over the top” with another race tacked on. At low odds, as James Quinn would say, who needs them?

Indeed, in the days preceding the Cup, it seemed unlikely Groupie Doll and Verrazano would ever run again.

Groupie Doll, who came up a nose short in last year’s Cigar Mile, brought $3.1 million at auction a few days after her second straight Filly and Mare Sprint victory. Her new owner, Mandy Pope, has opted to try for a $600,000 payday in the Cigar Mile.

“We had thought she would be retired immediately,” said trainer Buff Bradley, who had bred and owned the mare with his 82-year-old father, Fred, and two minority partners.

Verrazano, the Haskell winner, came out of retirement rather quickly as well. His connections felt he never had a chance after some early trouble in the Dirt Mile. Also, there’s the little matter of a $450,000 first-place check for a Grade 1 winner.

We proceed with interest.

WHO’S HOT
◗ John Q. Public
Midway through Wednesday’s program, favorites were batting an even .400 (30 for 75). Ironically enough, heading into the final leg of last Wednesday’s pick six, five horses at single-digit odds were covered, but not the favorite, The Blonde Peque, who won and paid $8.60.

◗ Javier Castellano
Favorites swept the first seven races last Saturday, and five of them were ridden by Castellano, including in the $100,000 Summer Secretary overnight stakes aboard Watsdachances ($4.20). Castellano, who had two morning-line favorites scratched that day, including Anjaz in the Long Island Handicap, completed a 6-for-7 afternoon by booting home North Star Boy ($15) in the nightcap and won two more on Sunday, including the Three Coins Up overnight stakes with Kharafa ($17.20).

Kharafa had minor throat surgery after an uncharacteristically poor effort in the Ticonderoga and reaffirmed his affinity for the Big A turf course, where he won big last fall.

WHO’S NOT

◗ Speed horses on the grass
Studies by the folks at Racing Flow indicate that early-speed types are up against it when the rails are at 0 feet on the turf course.

That seemed to be the case with the rails at that setting through eight racing days from Nov. 1-10, when 13 of 20 races were won by horses positioned fourth or farther back early. Among those were six winners that erased deficits ranging anywhere from 7 to 20 lengths.

Despite the prevailing trend, further evidence of this game’s degree of difficulty was supplied by Inimitable Romanee ($58.50), who walked the dog under a heady ride by Chris DeCarlo in the $200,000 Long Island Handicap – the longest and richest race at the meet so far.