Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of March 8

Gotham Day review

Looking down the road, there are pluses and minuses for students of form to take away from last week’s Gotham Stakes, a race in which only the top three finishers were seriously involved.

At this point, Samraat and Uncle Sigh seem like the most talented New York-bred 3-year-olds to come along since Funny Cide, and it is unfortunate that Uncle Sigh had to come along in the same crop as Samraat, who seems to have his number.

Some brief history: Funny Cide ran a 99 Beyer Speed Figure while finishing third in the Louisiana Derby before returning to New York to run a close second to Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial with a 110 Beyer. That was a breakthrough effort and set him up for wins in the Kentucky Derby (109) and Preakness (114).

The potential stumbling blocks for Samraat and Uncle Sigh are twofold:

1. The Gotham was their second straight slugfest, a month after their initial throw-down in the Withers Stakes. By the time Ali and Frazier pummeled each other for a third time in the “Thrilla in Manila,” neither fighter was the same. Things will only get tougher in the upcoming Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles, a distance that may be pushing the envelope for two colts who have Indian Charlie prominently in their pedigrees.

2. Samraat and Uncle Sigh have development lines that could portend a regression in the near future. Samraat has earned Beyers of 95, 94, and 96 in three route wins on the inner track, which brings up the “three and out” pattern discussed by Andy Beyer in his 1993 book “Beyer on Speed.” He looked at more than 4,500 horses coming off a sequence of three improving figures and found that 71 percent declined in the next race, and more than half declined by six points or more.

Uncle Sigh, to his credit, was in a difficult position between horses late in the Gotham, and he already has survived the three-and-out pattern with a remarkable line of 95-93-92-96 so far.

If the top three meet up again in the Wood Memorial, In Trouble – who was beaten a half-length and earned a 95 Beyer – is primed to turn the tables. The Gotham was his first race since taking the Grade 2 Futurity five months earlier with a 94 Beyer as a second-time starter. It’s a very good sign when a 3-year-old comes back from a layoff to match his best juvenile performance at first asking. This particular effort was all the more impressive since he was going long for the first time while under pressure throughout.

Injuries to two sprint stars

It has been a tough recent stretch for followers of New York racing, who have not only endured the grim realities of a harsh winter but recently have seen two dominant sprinters felled by injury.

Gracer made odds of 1-5 seem like a bargain in winning the Feb. 8 Dearly Precious Stakes by better than 10 lengths while hardly drawing a deep breath. Two days later, however, came the news of her retirement due to a fractured sesamoid in her left front ankle.

Last Saturday, the unbeaten and untested Mean Season streaked to a fast second-level allowance win in handy fashion but was pulled up quickly a furlong past the wire. Tests revealed an “avulsion fracture” of the left foreleg, an injury that does not require surgery but will sideline Mean Season for three to four months, and possibly longer.

Mean Season, whose three wins have come by a combined margin exceeding 20 lengths, is a freak. His six furlongs in 1:09.43 was 0.42 seconds faster than Grade 1 winner Strapping Groom needed to win the Tom Fool Handicap one race later. In that race, Mean Season dispensed a second quarter – referred to as “turn time” by pace handicappers – in a blistering 22.45 seconds while under no particular urging.

Here’s hoping Mean Season comes back strong at some point during the second half of the year.