Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of March 29

Whole new ballgame

Don’t blink, lest you miss Aqueduct’s spring meet, which runs a mere 23 racing dates through April 27.

After a four-month stint on the one-mile inner dirt (it only seemed longer), the switch to the 1 1/8-mile main oval should not be taken lightly by handicappers, as form doesn’t necessarily transfer between the two. The surfaces sit side-by-side but differ not only in length but in their list of ingredients as well. Exhibit A could be Hackleton, the 5-year-old who has notched all five of his wins on the inner track, including upsets at 13-1 and 22-1 for different trainers over the past two winters, but hasn’t been nearly as effective on the other side of the rails.

Horses who are not quite quick enough at six furlongs but aren’t full-fledged routers either find some happy middle ground on the main track thanks to a chute that allows for longer sprints from 6 1/2 furlongs to one mile.

The first turf race in the condition book is scheduled for Wednesday. There are three rail settings: 0, 9, and 18 feet. Studies conducted by “The Plod Boys,” who construct the Racing Flow Ratings, have shown that closers fare best at the 0 setting, while speed tends to hold better with the rails at 9 feet, and best of all when they are at 18 feet.

Value is where you find it

The term “value” is volleyed back and forth loosely in this age of the super high fives, the Rainbow Pick 6, and weekly guaranteed pick-whatevers.

Along those lines, a recent re-reading of “Racetrack Betting: The Professor’s Guide to Strategies,” published in 1986 by co-authors Peter Asch (Rutgers) and Richard E. Quandt (Princeton), while vacationing in Las Vegas (of all places) was refreshing, as was sunshine and 75 degrees on a daily basis.

Their conclusions, from a sometimes hard-to-follow mathematical perspective, advocated mining the place and show pools, where there are greater chances of finding true value than by betting to win.

“This is clearly the most interesting area of systems betting that has been revealed to date,” they write. “There seems to be some pretty substantial inefficiency in the place and show markets ... People seem to like high-risk gambles and take them. As we have pointed out ... the most profitable strategies tend to be rather conservative, even stodgy, whereas the most exciting may lose you a bundle in a hurry. We regard the risk-loving behavior of bettors as an opportunity to be exploited, but if this doesn’t fit your idea of a good time, we are not about to convince you otherwise.”

I only bring this up in the wake of last Saturday’s Excelsior Stakes, where the entry of Romansh and Long River attracted a staggering $547,669 of the $584,326 show pool.

They finished one-two with daylight on the rest, and the bridge-jumpers never had an anxious moment in collecting their $2.10. As it turned out, though, the “value” was in the backup hole: Romansh and Long River paid an identical $2.50 to win and place.

In the very next race, Ten Items Or Less went wire to wire as the second choice and paid $7.50, $5, and $4.20 across the board. I’m pretty sure there was some value in there somewhere.

Hardly the stuff of dreams, perhaps, but food for thought in the sport’s marquee races, which attract large pools of casual money.

That includes Seattle Slew, who paid $3, $2.80, and $2.80 in the Kentucky Derby.

A ‘Cappy’ exacta

In something of a racing oddity, Sensational Slam, the winner of the 2011 Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes (1:10.61), hooked up in a battle with 2013 “Cappy” winner Maleeh (1:10.43) in an optional-claiming sprint last Saturday.

Maleeh, in his first start since a troubled sixth as the favorite in last year’s Bay Shore, sported new front bandages but nevertheless appeared en route to victory at odds of 5-2. Until, that is, Sensational Slam ($12.40) – who ran for as little as $14,000 with no takers last fall – weaved his way to the rail and got up late.