Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of March 22

Capitalizing on track bias

Horseplayers know that picking up on a track bias during a race card can be a tricky business, and that betting through a card once the bias has been identified can be even trickier. On that front, gamblers playing the Big A this winter have had their hands full.

Since the turn of the year, the inside has rarely been a bad place to be on the inner dirt, and there have been several days when getting to the rail hasn’t just been the shortest path to the winner’s circle, it’s been the only path.

So far, the prominent dates during which a clear bias has been in play, even for those who are reluctant to buy in to talk of a racetrack making a difference in the day’s results, were Jan. 10, Jan. 25-26, and Feb. 17. The inside trend was in play once again during the weekend beginning Friday, March 14, and it became readily apparent by mid-card last Saturday that if your horse was not close to the rail, you were unlikely to cash any tickets.

The fourth race Saturday, a maiden special weight for New York-bred colts and geldings, handicapped as a race open to any one of several horses. It was over as soon as Forever Utopia cleared to the lead and the rail in the early stages en route to a runaway 10-length victory. That race was followed by four more front-running, rail-riding winners over the next five races, with the only exception being 6-5 favorite Mamdooha, who closed on the outside to win the Cicada Stakes.

It didn’t take long to get confirmation that Sunday’s races were going to look a lot like Saturday’s. The opener on the card ended in a dead heat between 14-1 Take the El Train, who went straight to the lead on the rail, and 30-1 Everydoghashisday, who rode the inside behind the pace and drove through late as Take the El Train drifted off to the two path, with the others spinning their wheels on the outside.

What followed was more of the same, and when all was said and done, eight of the nine winners on the card had spent all or most of their trips along the inside paths. So, what to make of all of this?

If you are a player who is comfortable identifying a bias as it is happening in front of you and trying to take immediate advantage, you certainly had your chance to score last weekend. But if you prefer to take a more patient approach, there still will be a chance, and likely several chances, to capitalize.

Most of the horses racing at Aqueduct last Saturday and Sunday will be back in action somewhere soon, and chances are they will be competing over a more level playing field as far as track surface is concerned. Knowing which horses were either badly compromised or greatly aided by the way the track was playing will give you a big leg up on most of your competition at the windows.

On that note, here are some horses who are going to return to the entries in the coming weeks with a last running line that will look either much better or much worse than it really is:

Potential downgrades – runners with the track last Saturday/Sunday
– Hackelton (finished 2nd, 3/15, race 3)
– Sideways Vision (finished 1st, 3/15, race 4)
– Half Nelson and Here Comes Tommy (finished 1st and 2nd, 3/15, race 7)
– Marketable Miss and Penella (finished 1st and 3rd, 3/15, race 9)
– Ms. Sylvia A (finished 1st, 3/16, race 4)
– Image of Anna (finished 1st, 3/16, race 6)
– Village Warrior (finished 1st, 3/16, race 8)

Potential upgrades – runners against the track last Saturday/Sunday
– Starship Captain (finished 5th, 3/15, race 2)
– My Friend Keith (finished 5th, 3/15, race 4)
– Brass Pear (finished 4th, 3/15, race 7)
– Alpaca Fina (finished 3rd, 3/15, race 8)
– Park City (finished 4th, 3/16, race 3)
– Jilly Mac (finished 2nd, 3/16, race 4)
– Purling (finished 5th, 3/16, race 5)
– Pass the Coffee and Lawmaker (finished 3rd and 4th, 3/16, race 8)
– Bad to the Roan (finished 5th, 3/16, race 9)