Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 4

ECLIPSE CONTENDERS: A LOOK BACK

Ahead of the 43rd annual Eclipse Awards in two weeks, it’s interesting to look back through the past performances of the contenders to see where they came from and how they developed.

As they continued to prove last year, good horses come from anywhere and everywhere.

◗ On the first Saturday of 2013 at Aqueduct, Princess of Sylmar, a Pennsylvania-bred who raced twice at Penn National before joining Todd Pletcher’s New York string, ran away and hid from five rivals in the Busanda Stakes. She would go on to win four straight Grade 1 races in the spring, summer, and fall, capped by the Beldame Invitational, becoming the first 3-year-old filly to win the race since 2002.

It doesn’t appear that any among the eight in this year’s Busanda are of that caliber, but you can never be sure. After all, Princess of Sylmar had run Beyer Speed Figures of 39, 72, and 79 going into the race.

◗ Last winter, Will Take Charge was coming off a loss in the Springboard Mile at Retama Park when he paid $26.20 to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 21.

And, by the way, can you believe it’s been 10 years since Smarty Jones won the Count Fleet at the Big A on Jan. 3, 2004? As races continue to get switched around, today’s equivalent is the Jerome (formerly run as a one-turn mile in April before its repositioning last year), where the top-figure entrant – at least so far – ships in after maiden and allowance wins at Parx and a rallying third in the Marylander at Laurel.

◗ Making his seasonal bow last Jan. 19, Belmont and Jim Dandy stakes winner Palace Malice was beaten at 4-5 in a first-level allowance.

◗ Incubating a throat infection unbeknownst to anyone last Jan. 21, Beholder ran second at 1-5 in the Santa Ynez.

◗ At this time a year ago, Gazelle, Mother Goose and Cotillion stakes winner Close Hatches was still three weeks away from her career debut.

◗ So was Whitney winner Cross Traffic.

◗ Last Jan. 13, two-time Grade 2 winner Cluster of Stars paid $3.70 in a first-level allowance against New York-breds. You could do a lot worse with your money.

RESOLUTIONS AND OTHER THOUGHTS FOR 2014

◗ Confronted with a steady stream of misplaced turf horses in New York at this time of year, inner-track handicappers seldom err by taking a black Flair pen to any and all grass figures in horses’ records. They are irrelevant, just as dirt figures are irrelevant on turf.

◗ I wish I had a nickel for every time a big field of evenly matched horses is termed a “good betting race.” Maybe, but a better betting race is one that has two contenders, and one of them is 4-1.

◗ Return on Investment is perhaps the most misunderstood facet of wagering. Far more important for generating profits is how rapidly you can grow the bankroll, even if it means sacrificing a few points off your ROI by betting to win and place or betting two horses in a race in order to reduce risk and avoid debilitating losing streaks.

◗ Speaking of losing streaks, a surefire way to get one going is by backing 6-1 “value” horses when neither the favorite nor the second choice has any glaring weaknesses.

◗ For the most part, guaranteed pick-whatever pools do not offer any tangible incentive. Carryovers, yes; guaranteed pools, no.

◗ Do yourself a favor and order a copy of Joe Colville’s latest collection of essays, “Analyzing Front-Runners.” Joe has for years written with uncanny insight about the lack of respect for early speed horses despite their statistical advantages. Looking back at some of 2013’s biggest races – Oxbow winning the Preakness at 15-1, Moreno beaten a nose at 31-1 in the Travers, Private Zone second at 32-1 in the Cigar Mile – early speed remains as potent and underestimated a weapon as ever.

◗ Try making your own Quirin-style pace and speed figures.

◗ Like the song says, accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative. Best wishes for a happy, healthy, and profitable 2014.