Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 18

POLAR VORTEX RESULTS IN COLD RAILBIRDS, GOLD RAIL

Safe to say, hardly anyone had ever heard the term “polar vortex” until an historical dip in the jet stream blasted some frigid Arctic air into much of the country last week. As a result, the inner track tightened up noticeably when racing resumed Jan. 9 following three dark days.

Prior to the break, three races at six furlongs on Jan. 5 went in 1:14.38, 1:12.39, and 1:12.22. By Jan. 9 the mercury had nosedived and the surface had tightened considerably. Five six-furlong races that day went in 1:11.72, 1:09.88, 1:11.37, 1:11.35, and 1:09.84. The next day, Pegasus Diamond ($20) wired a $20,000 claimer in 1:09.71 over the frozen tundra.

While there were four front-end winners Jan. 9 and four more Jan. 10, no particular running style appeared to hold an insurmountable advantage either day.

There was a path bias, however. Most winners raced on or near the rail, even closers like Alcomatch ($5.70), who trailed early by more than 13 lengths and got through inside under promising (and well-connected) apprentice Taylor Rice. Additionally, improbable longshots Love Contract (67-1) and Spirit of Peace (40-1) took their fields a long way on the inside and held well enough for third money.

So, while Baratti was impressive both visually and against the clock in last Friday’s maiden win from post 1, it bears mention that circumstances were in the 3-year-old colt’s favor.

It’s also a possibility that the Darley Stable homebred could be “any kind.”

Rising temperatures, dense fog, and a sloppy track resulted in the Jan. 11 program being halted after one race that no one except the Trakus “chicklets” could see.

When racing resumed Jan. 12 on a drying-out strip, upgraded from muddy to good, horses from outside more than held their own, and the same was true as the revamped racing week came to a close Monday, Jan. 13.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Saturday’s Evening Attire, renamed several years ago for the nine-time graded stakes winner of nearly $3 million, is the first stakes of the year in New York for older males.

Now run under allowance conditions, the Evening Attire was formerly the Aqueduct Handicap, and old-school fans may recall it was the feature when a spiffy new Big A opened its doors Sept. 14, 1959, when Hillsdale carried 132 pounds and beat Bald Eagle while spotting him 10 pounds.

One interesting subplot to this edition involves morning-line favorite Long River and third choice Cease, who come off decisive pace-pressing wins at one mile in December – the former against straight 3-year-olds in the Time for a Change overnight stakes, and the latter in a $62,500 optional claimer.

A cursory glance at the fractions for each race suggests the performances were similar from a pace standpoint:
Long River: 23.86, 47.18, 1:11.55, 1:35.87
Cease: 23.65, 46.90, 1:12.17, 1:37.33

The thing to remember is Long River’s race was around one turn on the main track, and Cease’s race was around two on the inner.

Some perspective:

On the Beyer Speed Figure scale, a one-turn mile in 1:35.87 equates to a raw figure of 105, but Long River received a figure of only 95, so, by the scale, it can be inferred the main track was rated approximately one full second faster than par.

A two-turn mile in 1:37.33 on the inner equates to 98, and Cease was awarded a 101, so the inner track was judged to be slow by a fifth or two.

Now, according to the 2013 HorseStreet Pars compiled by Dave Schwartz – which are rightly considered an industry standard – the pace-call (six-furlong) par for ungraded stakes at a mile on the main is 1:10.55. In other words, Long River’s race was a full second slower than par, on a track rated much faster than par.

The pace-call par for ungraded stakes at a mile on the inner track is 1:12.49, so Cease’s race was faster than par on a track rated a little slower than par.

Make of that what you will.