Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Feb. 1

Impact of the polar vortex

When someone writes a handicapping book in the future and wants to illustrate the most powerful track bias imaginable, it’s a good bet examples will include several recent days on the inner dirt.

As recounted two weeks ago, a wave of cold air turned the track to frozen tundra Jan. 9 and 10, when a dozen winners either led or were within two lengths of the lead, and several off-the-pace winners rallied along the inside.

Racing was halted after one race Jan. 11 due to rain and dense fog. When racing resumed the next day, the bias, along with the cold front, was long gone.

A similar weather pattern arrived last week, and after a cancellation Jan. 24, sub-freezing conditions produced another gold rail Jan. 25 and 26, this one also tilted toward early speed. Two-thirds of the winners (12) went wire to wire; not a single winner from 18 races was more than two lengths off the lead at the pace call.

“AQU inner playing a bit like the surface of old lately,” tweeted Jake Jacobs of Racing Flow, whose bias ratings rated the track progressively more speed conducive through the weekend.

As the Arctic air mass departed Jan. 27, it took just 1:12.04 for race watchers to know the bias had disappeared, too. That was how long it took 6-year-old Mr. Masterpience to swoop from next-to-last on the far outside to win a maiden claimer by nine lengths – a virtual impossibility one day and 10 to 15 degrees earlier. Four subsequent winners that afternoon made up anywhere from four to eight lengths from the rear half of their fields.

Stakes quadrupleheader

So, what should we expect from the inner track this Saturday when four stakes worth a collective $600,000 are run?

Mother Nature seems to hold the key. When it’s below freezing, the surface has been rail-biased repeatedly and has played faster than par by a full second or more. Above 32 degrees, things even out and the track slows down. After another cold snap early in the week, forecasters were talking about a warming trend, with temperatures perhaps above 40 by the weekend. Be prepared to adjust on the fly.

In chronological order, here’s a preview (with historical pace and final-time pars) of the stakes action. Needless to say, there is no pick four covering the four races. Why? Because it’s racing, that’s why, so the anchor leg is a $12,500 claimer.

Toboggan (45.20; 1:09.80): Having returned to top form in the recent Gravesend, Strapping Groom would’ve made an enticing pick four single had the first graded sprint stakes of the season been part of the mix.

With the exception of Dads Caps, who had no takers when unveiled for a $60,000 tag last winter, everyone in this field has been claimed at least once. That includes Strapping Groom, who won the Forego four starts after being snapped up last May, and Sensational Slam, who has changed hands six times since winning the 2011 Capossela Stakes.

Busher (1:13.20; 1:45): Recent winners Princess of Sylmar (2013), It’s Tricky (2011), and Little Belle (2008) all went on to win at least one Grade 1 title. The common thread is that all three are daughters or granddaughters of A.P. Indy.

Although she wasn’t helped by drawing the outside, Vero Amore – like It’s Tricky, a daughter of Mineshaft – may stretch out effectively against Fierce Boots, who just won the slowest Busanda since 1984.

Correction (46.20; 1:10.75): The field of 12 female sprinters equals the combined number of entrants for the previous two renewals.

Give or take a point or two, a handful of contenders have virtually identical recent Beyer Speed Figure peaks, with poor Delightful Quality marooned out in post 12, as the soon-to-be-retired Darley Stable homebred tries to get some black type yet again.

Withers (1:12.60; 1:44): For years, this spot on the calendar was reserved for the Whirlaway, which followed the Count Fleet for 3-year-olds in the Northeast. For all practical purposes, the Count Fleet is now the Jerome, and the Whirlaway is now the Withers, and both offer 17 qualifying points (10-4-2-1) for the Kentucky Derby. By the numbers, the disappointing turnout of six boils down to a battle between New York-breds Samraat and Uncle Sigh, who each ran off the screen here in December.