Aqueduct handicapping roundup: Week of Dec. 7

ANOTHER REMSEN RIDDLE

Just like last year, the favorite in the Remsen Stakes prevailed by a nose after prompting the pace, taking the lead, and then appearing to be beaten in deep stretch.

That’s about all the 99th and 100th renewals of the 1 1/8-mile race had in common.

Last year, Overanalyze turned back Normandy Invasion, who had loomed a certain winner in deep stretch. Delhomme was three-quarters of a length behind, and it was a chasm back to the rest. The Beyer Speed Figure of 99 made it the fastest juvenile dirt route of the season, 17 points faster than Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby’s 82 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Oddly enough, it developed into a “negative key race” when the top three raced back: Overanalyze ran fifth at 17-10 in the Gotham, Normandy Invasion ran fifth at 3-2 in the Risen Star, Delhomme was distanced behind Will Take Charge in the Rebel and never was heard from again.

Last Saturday, Honor Code came on again to nose out Cairo Prince, who looked like the winner 50 yards out. The Beyer was 88, equaling the figure earned by New Year’s Day in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The two races unfolded in very different ways. New Year’s Day closed into fast fractions, while the Remsen unfolded through the unfathomably slow splits of 25.84, 52.74, and 1:17.56 before the top two sprinted the last three-eighths in 35.36 seconds.

Needless to say, both trainers thought they ran the best horse.

Shug McGaughey on Honor Code: “They went three-quarters in 1:17, but he was right there. He made the lead, lost it, and then refocused. They went the last part in 11 and change, and he beat a very nice horse who’d run twice since Honor Code’s last race.”

Kiaran McLaughlin on Cairo Prince: “He was wide on both turns, and then when he got there at the eighth pole, the jockey was maybe a little overconfident and thought he was the winner. ... Honor Code is a nice horse, but we were giving him six pounds, and to lose by a nose, we feel like we have the best horse right now. Moving forward, we’ll see.”

Only time will tell. With apologies to Winston Churchill, for now, the Remsen is a riddle, wrapped in mystery, inside an enigma.

INNER TRACK OPENS WEDNESDAY

Racing shifts from the main track to the inner dirt track Wednesday. Form doesn’t necessarily transfer reliably between the two surfaces, which are side-by-side but have different ingredients. The main track is sandy loam, while the winterized inner surface is a dirt, clay, and loam composite that sits on a limestone base to facilitate drainage and resist clumping under freezing conditions.

The inner track’s stretch, at about 1,175 feet, is actually the longest among the four dirt surfaces maintained by the New York Racing Association, and its turns are the sharpest. This makes saving ground very important and requires a certain degree of nimbleness from horses, particularly in two-turn routes involving multiple lead changes.

For years, practically all sprints on the inner track were at six furlongs, but in recent seasons, there has been a growing number at 5 1/2 furlongs. From 20 races at that shorter distance during the 2012-13 winter meet, all horses drawn wider than post 7 won only twice combined.

Outer posts can be a detriment going long as well. None of the 15 runners from post 10 at a mile or a mile and 70 yards won last winter. Of 18 longer routes at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles, 16 were won by horses in posts 1-4; those drawn in posts 5-11 were 2 for 44.
Favorites fared well at the 2012-13 winter meet, winning at a 37 percent clip (194 for 524).